The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 7 August a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  31-Jul-15 7-Aug-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,474.60 1,481.60 7.00 0.5
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,094.90 1,094.10 -0.80 -0.1
Gold/silver ratio 74.251 73.846 -0.405 -0.5
Silver/gold ratio 0.0135 0.0135 0.0001 0.5
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 333.99 328.25 -5.74 -1.7
Dow in gold ounces 16.16 15.88 -0.28 -1.7
Dow in Silver ounces 1,199.64 1,172.61 -27.03 -2.3
Dow Industrials 17,689.86 17,373.38 -316.48 -1.8
S&P500 2,103.84 2,077.57 -26.27 -1.2
US dollar index 97.44 97.62 0.18 0.2
Platinum 984.00 961.80 -22.20 -2.3
Palladium 610.35 596.40 -13.95 -2.3

My friend Catherine Austin Fitts sent me a card today that reads, "LIVE EVERY DAY like you just got out of prison." Not a bad sentiment.

None of us knows the end from the beginning, and this week you'd have thought silver & gold were going to drop off the edge of the earth & the dollar was going to soar. Bottom rail's on the top now. Silver actually rose this week and gold is a measly 80 cents lower. Dow in Gold & Silver are sharply lower, and stocks are looking a mite peakéd. Dow broke crucial support today. Dollar Index probably topped this week, and platinum & palladium have gotten so cheap they may just stop mining 'em.

Do y'all reckon the vampire killer relishes pounding that wooden stake in the vampire's heart? Now what makes me think of that when I go to discuss the US dollar index?

Dollar index has been topped, blocked, & sealed. Back in June, y'all recall, it broke upside out of an even-sided triangle. That rise lasted until 98.31, when it hit the wall and slid down it. Wednesday it hit 98.33, but couldn't close up there. Thursday it slipped down, then today again tried that top with a 98.43 intraday high. From there it lost 75 basis points to end the day at 97.62, down 0.24%.

So the dollar index tried twice to penetrate 98.33, but failed both times. That shouts that the dollar is NOT going to continue its rise begun in July 2014, about the best news silver & gold could get. Scrofulous US dollar index chart is here,

You'd think that the lying US jobs report which deftly fabricated better employment, which implies the Fed will raise interest rates next month, would send the dollar up, since interest rates are a prime driver of exchange rates. Most likely it was speculators "buying the rumor & selling the news." By the way that lying jobs report was so good it said the US economy created 215,000 jobs -- enough so that, according to the report, Bigfoot has found a new full time job AND a part time job & Santa Claus is hiring new elves.

Euro & yen dithered and dodged around about like they have been doing.

Y'all need to beware the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy. That means to draw the wrong conclusion that because something happened AFTER something else it also happened BECAUSE OF that something else. "Wet streets cause rain." This fallacy is a media favorite, especially when they have no clue what's happening, which is 99.8% of the time. Hence headlines this evening, "US Stocks drop after solid jobs report suggests higher rates."

'T'aint so. Stocks are dropping because they are sick as a hound eating arsenicked meat ALREADY. They have been rolling over all year, & didn't need no lying jobs report to push 'em over the cliff. Oh, and Mercy! They are a-fixin' to drop harder & further than anybody in the media can imagine. Even a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee can see that, but not them Wall Street smarties.

Dow lost 46.37 (0.27%) today to close at 17,373.38. What signifieth that number? It's below 17,400, which had caught the Dow two previous times (17,465 &17,399). That close also pushes the Dow over the support line stretching back to March, & sets it up to break the year's low at 17,038. Watch, just y'all watch. Chart's at

S&P500 lost 5.99 (0.29%) to 2,077.57. Watch that 2,039 March low. S&P has formed a broadening top in a broadening top, & only by the skin of its teeth closed above its 200 DMA (2,073.24). Stocks have broken. High was back in May.

As I expected yesterday, the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both broke through their uptrend lines today, and cinched a fall through their 20 DMAs. Dow in gold stopped a gnat's eyelash from puncturing the top gator jaw and ended at 15.88 oz. Today also confirms a down trend with a lower high and two lower lows. 'Twas a down week. Indicators unanimously point down.

Lo, the Dow in silver punched through that 20 DMA & uptrend line today like your finger punching through wet cardboard. Ended at 1,172.21 oz., down for the week.

That's it. Silver & gold turned up today.

Gold rose $3.90 (0.35%) to $1,094.10 while silver gained 14.6 cents (1%) to 1481.6.

Yes, they have to better this, keep going, confirm. But today gold's MACD turned up, along with Full stochastics, rate of change, and RSI. On much higher volume. It ALMOST broke out of that pennant upward. Next step is to breach resistance and 20 DMA at $1,105.

Silver Bumped plumb up to the top of its range today with a 1499 high, & closed over 1475c resistance and its 1478c 20 DMA. Must break through 1500c, but that should come Monday or Tuesday.

Buy gold on a 1 day close over $1,106, or silver on a close over 1500c. Y'all've been waitin'. Now do something.

Next week I will not send out commentaries Tuesday through Friday, 18-21 August. I'll be in New Castle, Virginia at the Beyond Off Grid summit. Get more information & register here,

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
7-Aug-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,094.10 3.90 0.4
Silver, $/oz 14.82 0.15 1.0
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.846 0.256 0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0001 1.0
Platinum 961.80 -4.60 -0.5
Palladium 596.40 -9.70 -1.6
S&P 500 2,077.57 -9.70 -0.5
Dow 17,373.38 -46.37 -0.3
Dow in GOLD $s 328.25 -2.02 -0.6
Dow in GOLD oz 15.88 -0.10 -0.6
Dow in SILVER oz 1,172.61 -14.83 -1.2
US Dollar Index 97.62 -0.29 -0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,094.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,127.34 1,132.81 1,132.81
1/2 AE 0.50 557.69 577.35 1,154.70
1/4 AE 0.25 281.58 294.15 1,176.59
1/10 AE 0.10 114.82 119.85 1,198.48
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,065.32 1,074.32 1,096.02
British sovereign 0.24 259.58 272.58 1,157.93
French 20 franc 0.19 205.88 209.88 1,124.13
Krugerrand 1.00 1,115.30 1,125.30 1,125.30
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,104.50 1,118.50 1,118.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 629.34 574.61 1,149.23
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 279.10 292.78 1,171.12
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 116.02 119.30 1,193.01
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,312.93 1,323.93 1,098.06
.9999 bar 1.00 1,098.33 1,106.50 1,106.50
SPOT SILVER: 14.85      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,691.25 13,048.75 18.25
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,189.00 4,339.00 14.71
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,510.00 1,535.00 15.35
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 150.00 155.00 15.50
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.95 15.41 15.41
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.35 17.85 17.85
SPOT PLATINUM: 961.80      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 976.80 1,006.80 1,006.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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