The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 18 August a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Now if y'all are gonna wax all fidgety & teary-eyed every time silver & gold stumble a little, y'all are gonna break down with the nervous fantods right quick. Stuff goes up, it goes down, the Nice Government Men jigger with it a bit, then it goes the way it wanted to go anyhow. Much as they want to think they are, they ain't bigger than the market.

Today silver was stepping along just fine when about 9:00 it tripped over the edge of the cliff at 1520c & plummeted to 1468 by 11:30. Comex closed down 50.8 cents down (-3.3%) at 1478.7c, exceeding my 1496c target for a 50% correction of the previous move. But that's just like silver, excitable & overdoing things one way or the other. Today's correction equalled 64.4% of the move before, close enough to a Fibonacci 61.8% to fulfill that target.

'Bout the same time the sellers hit silver they hit gold, too, and it plumb fainted at around $1,118.00, plunging all the way to $1,108.50 by 11:30. That didn't keep it down, as it shot straight up to $1,119 before closing Comex down only $1.50 (0.13%) at $1,117.10.

Aftermarket say, "Daymarket speak with forkéd tongue." Gold's at $1,118.00 and silver at 1493c. Still, there's a little more downside coming. Now's the time for y'all to start buying if y'all missed silver at 1435 & gold at $1,070.

Stocks didn't trade as ridiculously as yesterday, but simply couldn't work up enough juice to get above unchanged. Oh, the Dow did rise a little above that about 11, but then wilted all the rest of the day. Ended down 33.84 (0.19%) at 17,511.34. S&P500 lost 5.52 (0.26%) for a 2,096.92 close. Dow stopped today at its 20 day moving average. Pretty puny.

Now let us turn our gaze, however reluctantly, toward that edentulous, scrofulous, scabby, & tuberculous US dollar index. I hate it so much I bought a rhyming dictionary, to ease my heaping scorn on it. Dollar Index rose 25 basis points (0.26%) to 97.07. Reaches toward the 20 DMA (97.24) but changes nothing yet. Dollar will fall further, unless it can better 98.425. Don't bet a lot on that. Buy yourself a lottery ticket instead, it's safer.

Euro is such a stumblebum that it can't hold on to any gains, and today lost 0.43% to $1,1029 and fell back beneath its downtrend line. Ain't no helping that thing. Yen was flat at 80.40.

I like people who let you know where they stand. Sunday on the way home from Virginia Susan & I were driving through Bristol, Tennessee. Big long building on the east side of I-81 has a gigantic sign on one end: "GUNRUNNERS. Jesus is Lord. We buy guns."

Whatever they are, it ain't mealy-mouthed.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Aug-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,117.10 -1.50 -0.13%
Silver, $/oz 14.79 -0.51 -3.32%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.546 2.411 3.30%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0004 -3.19%
Platinum 992.60 -6.60 -0.66%
Palladium 596.50 -16.80 -2.74%
S&P 500 2,096.92 -5.52 -0.26%
Dow 17,511.34 -33.84 -0.19%
Dow in GOLD $s 324.05 -0.19 -0.06%
Dow in GOLD oz 15.68 -0.01 -0.06%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,184.24 37.12 3.24%
US Dollar Index 97.07 0.25 0.26%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,118.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,140.36 1,157.13 1,157.13
1/2 AE 0.50 569.67 589.75 1,179.49
1/4 AE 0.25 287.63 300.46 1,201.85
1/10 AE 0.10 117.29 122.42 1,224.21
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,087.10 1,096.10 1,118.24
British sovereign 0.24 265.15 278.15 1,181.61
French 20 franc 0.19 210.30 214.30 1,147.81
Krugerrand 1.00 1,138.12 1,148.12 1,148.12
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,128.00 1,142.00 1,142.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 642.85 586.95 1,173.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 285.09 299.07 1,196.26
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 118.51 121.86 1,218.62
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,341.12 1,352.12 1,121.44
.9999 bar 1.00 1,121.91 1,130.00 1,130.00
SPOT SILVER: 14.93      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,891.45 13,248.95 18.53
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,212.60 4,362.60 14.79
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,518.00 1,543.00 15.43
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 150.80 155.80 15.58
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.03 15.49 15.49
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.43 17.93 17.93
SPOT PLATINUM: 992.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,007.60 1,037.60 1,037.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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