The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 20 August a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

First, friends, something you must all ponder: Will this next financial crisis will follow the path of 2008 or make its own new way? At stake is what currency, which includes not only the scrofulous fiat dollars, euros, & yen, but also silver & gold, will perform best in that crisis.

In March 2008 silver hit 2042c & gold $1,003, new highs for the bull market. Then in September struck the financial crisis, taking the dollar index up to 85.67 (up 120% for the year), the Dow down to 7,552 (down 41%), and gold down to $705 (down 30%) and gold down to 880c (down 57%).

What happened? Pure-dee panic. Fear drove people into dollars and US treasuries as the sure safe haven.

But wait. What if that doesn't happen this time? What if the dollar tanks along with stocks, & the safe haven bid hits silver & gold? THAT IS WHAT YOU MUST WATCH.

Today stocks tanked around the globe. The Shanghai index is down 8.2% for the week (proving again that governments prop up markets in vain). US stocks sank like sash weights in a cow trough, silver & gold rose, & the US dollar sank. Gold & silver even rose IN EUROS, although the euro rose, too.

Too early to say what will turn out, but right now fright from stocks is sending the panicked into silver & gold and out of the dollar.

What if the crisis follows the 2008 pattern? Then silver & gold tank with stocks & the dollar flies -- for a short time. Once the dust clears, silver & gold fly & the dollar & stocks sink.

All this is why I have been urging y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold. Whichever way the panic turns out, the midlife crisis in silver & gold (the 2011-2015 correction) has ended, & the bull market will outdo everything it did the first 11 years.

Now quick, let's look at markets because I want to get out of here & bushhog.

STOCKS finally gave up the ghost. Dow plunged 358.04 (2.06%) to close at a new low for the year, 16,990.69. S&P500 tumbled 43.88 (2.11%) to 2,035.73, below the March low. Dow chart is at S&P500's at

Gravity now reigns supreme as the bear market teaches investors the difference between a "bull market" and "investing genius."

From its 18,312 May high to Dow has lost 7.2%. From the S&P500's May high it has lost 4.4%. For the year the S&P500 is 1.1% lower, but the Dow is 4.7% lower. Both indices have fallen through their 200 DMAs.

And the fun has only just begun.

Listen, y'all, if you NEVER look at my charts you have got to see the Dow in Gold today, and the Dow in Silver,

This is what I have been looking for, waiting for. The July highs were indeed the final tops and throwovers. Dow in gold today closed at G$304.70 gold dollars (14.74 oz), down G$11.58 today alone. From the 20 July peak at G$341.08 (16.5 oz), the DiG has plunged 10.7%.

Ohhh, and silver! Dow in silver has fallen from its 20 July high at S$1,598.54 silver dollars (1,236.37 oz) the Dow in silver has fallen to S$1,413.17 or 11.6%. Today alone it fell another S$55.29.

US dollar index slipped 42 basis points (0.44%) to 95.94. Chart's at Dollar punched its 50 day moving average & never looked back, falling nearly to support at 95.50, the last low. Once it gets past the apex of that triangle, about 95.25, it will speed up.

Euro took advantage of the dollar's discomfiture to rise 1.07% to $1.1240. gapped up and now looks ready to rally. Yen has also flown past its 20 & 50 DMAs, and today rose 0.34% to 81.03.

I'm gonna hazard the Fed won't raise interest rates in September, or any time soon.

Gold burst through resistance with a huge $24.90 (2.21%) bound to close above the breakdown point and the support line from the November & March lows. Mercy, did I mention it punched through its 50 dma like a hot poker through wet cardboard? Yes, it did. Gold also stands above the downtrend line from the last (October 2012) significant high. Chart:

From here Gold needs to move out smartly & conquer that resistance area between $1,180 and $1,200. 200 DMA stands now at $1,186.83, so let's use that as a first target, with $1,206 next. By the way, this is NOT the end of this gold rally, but just the beginning. You can buy now or wait till it crosses that 200 DMA, but buy you should.

Silver lagged not behind but led the way, pole-vaulting 34.1 cents (2.25%) to 1551.7c. Silver, I want to see you close through 1560c tomorrow & jump toward 1600c. Then set your sights on 1619c where the 200 DMA is.

Whoa! Look at this chart,

Silver is knocking its head not only against 1560c resistance, but also the downtrend line from the April 2013 high. Last revenge silver needs to take is closing above that May high at 1777.5c.

Even the white metals are heating up. Platinum jumped another $22.10 today and palladium $13.60.

Listen here, this party is just getting started. They ain't even pulled out the jug yet, & the band's just warming up. Y'all better get out there & dance. When silver bursts through that resistance, tomorrow likely, it will run, run, run.

Y'all have a good evening. There's still some light & I have an appointment with a bushhog.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
20-Aug-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,153.00 24.90 2.21%
Silver, $/oz 15.52 0.34 2.25%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.306 -0.029 -0.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0135 0.0000 0.04%
Platinum 1,034.00 22.10 2.18%
Palladium 622.95 13.60 2.23%
S&P 500 2,035.73 -43.88 -2.11%
Dow 16,990.69 -358.04 -2.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 304.62 -13.28 -4.18%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.74 -0.64 -4.18%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,094.97 -48.20 -4.22%
US Dollar Index 95.94 -0.42 -0.44%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,151.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,187.20 1,191.80 1,191.80
1/2 AE 0.50 586.76 607.42 1,214.83
1/4 AE 0.25 296.25 309.47 1,237.86
1/10 AE 0.10 120.80 126.09 1,260.89
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,119.67 1,128.67 1,151.47
British sovereign 0.24 273.10 286.10 1,215.36
French 20 franc 0.19 216.60 220.60 1,181.56
Krugerrand 1.00 1,171.08 1,181.08 1,181.08
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,161.50 1,175.50 1,175.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 662.11 604.54 1,209.08
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 293.63 308.03 1,232.11
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 122.06 125.51 1,255.14
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,381.31 1,392.31 1,154.77
.9999 bar 1.00 1,155.53 1,163.50 1,163.50
SPOT SILVER: 15.54      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,502.78 13,895.78 19.43
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,391.08 4,541.08 15.39
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,578.50 1,603.50 16.04
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 156.85 161.85 16.19
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.64 16.10 16.10
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.04 18.54 18.54
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,034.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,049.00 1,079.00 1,079.00
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.