The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 4 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  28-Aug-15 4-Sep-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,453.50 1,454.40 0.90 0.1
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,133.10 1,120.60 -12.50 -1.1
Gold/silver ratio 77.957 77.049 -0.908 -1.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0128 0.0130 0.0002 1.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 303.63 297.04 -6.59 -2.2
Dow in gold ounces 14.69 14.37 -0.32 -2.2
Dow in Silver ounces 1,145.03 1,107.15 -37.88 -3.3
Dow Industrials 16,643.01 16,102.38 -540.63 -3.2
S&P500 1,988.87 1,921.22 -67.65 -3.4
US dollar index 96.14 96.24 0.10 0.1
Platinum 1,021.30 991.60 -29.70 -2.9
Palladium 589.55 576.80 -12.75 -2.2

I came across these sentences in St. Augustine's On Christian Doctrine in which he denounces fortune-tellers and soothsayers. I had to think of all the media and market prognosticators who read the Federal Open Market Committee minutes & the words that dribble from the mouths of Janet Yellen & other Fed bloodsuckers, then interpret them as if they were Roman augurs reading sheep guts.

"(All such errors) imply a pestiferous curiosity, an excruciating solicitude, and a mortal slavery. They were not noticed because of any innate validity, but were made to have validity through being noticed and pointed out." (Book 2, XXIV, 37)

The physical silver supply shortage is running wild. One large mint is backlogged 3.8 million ounces. Two other mints are so backlogged they are not selling. One other is quoting twelve week delivery even for 100 oz. bars, and not quoting delivery for one ounce rounds at all. Twelve weeks equals 27 November.

Eventually they will sort it out and all that silver will be delivered. In the meantime very little physical silver is available. Some US 90% can be had, but at $4.70 an ounce over spot. We managed to find some one ounce Brittannias, an official coin minted by the British mint, but not many and they cost about $1.50 more than privately minted silver rounds. We have them live, at least.

Ponder what this backwardation means: The futures price for spot silver is 1454.4 cents, but US 90% silver coin, when you can find it, costs 1924.4 cents an ounce AT WHOLESALE, 32.3% above spot silver.

This is worse than the silver supply situation in the 2008 Financial panic. And while our little corner of the world silver market is small, the supply dearth still argues that the public has HUGE monetary demand for silver.

And look, this is not the wild, raving imaginings of some anonymous internet guru. These are the numbers & realities I am dealing with daily.


The week was not kind to stocks. Dow lost 3.2%, S&P500 lost 3.4%, & they're beginning to install wrought iron grates over the windows in stock brokerage high rises. Somebody's a-feared it's gonna start raining stock brokers. Dollar index tried but failed to reach escape velocity. Gold took a correctional whipping this week while silver held on. Better days coming for metals.

Law, it's times like this the Nice Government Men have to earn their money. That stock market plunges 470 points in a day but all they can push back is 129, then it drops off another 272.

Today the Dow looked like a lazy man trying to get out of bed after a long night of drinking bustskull whiskey. Just couldn't do anything but lie back down. Dow dove 272.38 (1.66%) to 16,102.38 & the S&P500 sank 29.91 (1.53%) to 1,921.22. It warn't their shiningest day ever.

Stocks have likely sketched out a flag or pennant, which gives us a measuring stick for the depth of this move: 13,904.

I keep telling y'all this, piling my little grain of corrective sand on the scales against the tons of hogwash pouring out of Washington and New York: It ain't over yit. Stocks will sink, sink, sink for lo, five to seven years, for the trend hath turned from up to down.

Look here at this, if you doubt: It's the Dow in Gold chart. It has broken down, down, down, and now is coiling up for yet another nosedive. Closed today down 1.47% at G$296.64 gold dollars (14.35 oz). Not coming back.

Dow in silver fell 0.68% to S$1,430.87 (1,106.69 ounces). It's playing at the 200 day moving average, but will soon enough crash through. Floor's rotten. Chart is right here,

US Dollar index looked mighty brave yesterday, but today like a plucked chicken. Day's trading undid all yesterday's gains and then some. Dollar lost 18 basis points to close at 96.24. Today looked an awful lot like the first half of a key reversal, but let's see what Tuesday brings. 'Pears that the dollar is following stocks.

Euro is going nowhere but the yen has itself a little ol' rally going. Rose 0.91% today to 84.00 and will go higher.

I saw some media clowns talking today about how the low unemployment report today might lead the Fed to raise interest rates next month. Listen to me, hear what I'm saying and I'll stick to it: the Fed is as likely to raise rates this month, next month, or this year, as Hillary Clinton is to win the Most Charming Woman contest. Ain't no chance they'll raise rates. They're scairt to death of the stock market.

All the gentlemen prognosticators forecasting deflation better take another look. Oil had a great two weeks, as did Copper and the CRB commodity index. Oil came up out of the hole 27 August and has been blowing a gusher ever since. Chart's here, don't take my word for it:

Gold shaved off $3.10 (0.3%) to close Comex at $1,120.60. Silver gave up 15.8 cents (1.1%) to 1454.4c.

Today's close took gold firmly below its 50 day moving average ($1,127.08) but even at today's $1,115.70 low it didn't quite reach my $1,110 target for this move. Anyway, it ought to turn up next week, maybe after one last dip. Chart's here,

Oddly enough, there's no shortage of physical gold, at least not in the one ounce and larger sizes. Europe long ago bought up most of the fractional coins. Oh, there are a few small gold out there but not cheap. In 2008 before the silver situation got this scarce gold had become tight, too. The premiums never rose as high but deliveries stretched out six to eight weeks.

I reckon silver's like a mercilessly beautiful but mysterious woman. You can't ever exactly figure her out. Silver's low today reached 1448 cents, and strong support rests under that at 1435c. Truth is, my betting that silver's already bottomed back in August rests on the seasonal window, an 11 and 7 year cycle due to bottom in July, & the great length of the bear phase since 2011. Right now, though, silver remains below its 20 and 50 DMAs and needs to step out & strut its stuff.

Another thing that rests on my mind is that premium on US 90% silver coin. It has now reached the same dollar level that it reached in 2008 and 2013, at the highs. In 2008 that premium high marked the price low, too.

Next week I'll be vacationing with my family, so I won't be sending any commentaries, unless I just get itchy and take a notion. Anyway, y'all all know what I think: stocks will drop way more and probably take the US dollar with 'em. Silver & gold (I believe) have already bottomed, so it's the time to buy 'em.

Our crew next week will be right skinny, so be patient & somebody'll call back.

On 3 September 1862 General Robert E. Lee moved north into Maryland with his Army of Northern Virginia. Some fool who had received a copy of Lee's detailed battle plans -- Special Order 191 -- wrapped them around three cigars, then lost the cigars. Union soldiers found them and passed them up the chain of command, that ended at General McClellan. He waited 18 hours before taking advantage of his information, very effectively squandering his advantage.

The campaign climaxed on 17 September at the Battle of Sharpsburg or Antietam. It was the bloodiest single-day battle in American History with casualties & missing at 22,717. With only 38,000 engaged, the Army of No. Virginia beat McClellan's army of 75,500, in part because McClellan never brought them to bear. The lesson? Don't wrap your cigars in special orders, and if you do, don't lose 'em.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,120.60 -3.10 -0.3
Silver, $/oz 14.54 -0.16 -1.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.049 -0.205 -0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 -0.0001 -1.1
Platinum 991.60 -17.70 -1.8
Palladium 576.80 -3.80 -0.7
S&P 500 1,921.22 -29.91 -1.5
Dow 16,102.38 -272.38 -1.7
Dow in GOLD $s 297.04 -4.16 -1.4
Dow in GOLD oz 14.37 -0.20 -1.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,107.15 -6.63 -0.6
US Dollar Index 96.24 -0.18 -0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,122.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,154.64 1,161.37 1,161.37
1/2 AE 0.50 571.76 591.91 1,183.82
1/4 AE 0.25 288.68 301.56 1,206.26
1/10 AE 0.10 117.72 122.87 1,228.70
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,091.08 1,100.08 1,122.30
British sovereign 0.24 266.12 279.12 1,185.74
French 20 franc 0.19 211.07 215.07 1,151.94
Krugerrand 1.00 1,142.30 1,152.30 1,152.30
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,132.10 1,146.10 1,146.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 645.21 589.10 1,178.21
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 286.14 300.16 1,200.65
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 118.94 122.31 1,223.09
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,343.33 1,354.33 1,123.28
.9999 bar 1.00 1,126.03 1,134.10 1,134.10
SPOT SILVER: 14.57      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,416.98 13,774.48 19.27
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,104.93 4,254.93 14.42
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,481.50 1,506.50 15.07
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 147.15 152.15 15.22
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.67 15.13 15.13
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.07 18.07 18.07
SPOT PLATINUM: 991.60      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,006.60 1,036.60 1,036.60
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.