The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 16 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Good thing about being no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee is that you don't have to protect neither pride nor turf. When you make a mistake you can just out with it, and nobody laughs at you because they all know you're too dumb to open an umbrella and it a-rainin'. So I don't mind to tell you that the All-mighty FOMC didn't give out their oracles today, but tomorrow. So I want all y'all a-sittin' on the edge of your Lazy-Boy all evening t'night & into the morning, just a-frettin' & a-botherin' about what them educate fools are goin' t'do.

I ain't frettin', tho, because if you could scare up a whole dab of real brains & common sense amongst 'em, I'd keel over dead with surprise.

Meanwhile, the overhanging contemplation of those people keeps markets roiled. All the easy-money, easy-livers on Wall Street are just sure that whatever jumper cables the FOMC attaches to interest rates, the stock market will crank. Dow rose 140.10 (0.84%) to 16,739.95 and the S&P500 gained 17.22 (0.87%) to 1,995.31. This brought both indices to the top of the flag they've been painting out, & y'all know what the market proverb says, right? "Flags always fly at half staff." Way more downside coming for stocks, weeping, wailing, gnashing of teeth, pulling of hair, and laying of blame.

In a bear market, money returns to its rightful owner.

US dollar index gave up half of what it gained yesterday, falling 25 basis points (0.26%) to 95.51. It's snuck back below its 20 day moving average (95.57). Also is hovering just above its 200 dma (95.25), so any untoward FOMC action will sink the dollar's boat fast.

CPI data published today showed US inflation fell in August , & that terrified gold & silver shorts so bad that both metals jumped up.

Silver today vaulted 56 cents (3.9%) to close Comex at 1487.8. Gold leapt $16.40 (1.5%) to $1,119.20. I warned y'all that gold & especially silver move fast when they move. You got to board that train BEFORE it leaves the station.

Today's move took gold clean through its 50 DMA, but it settled just above it. This offers another witness & more proof that the uptrending support line from the July low will hold.

Silver cut through its 20 & 50 DMAs (1470 & 1485) in one bold leap. That validates that support line, and suggests that whoever was short was not loaded with self-confidence.

Looking at stocks & interest rates, and even the US dollar index, most of Wall Street believes the FOMC will raise rates tomorrow. Y'all reckon they'll be disappointed if the FOMC don't? They'll be so concerned they'll have to ask congress for another bailout.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,119.20 16.40 1.49%
Silver, $/oz 14.88 0.56 3.91%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.225 -1.797 -2.33%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0003 2.39%
Platinum 975.80 17.50 1.83%
Palladium 611.05 11.90 1.99%
S&P 500 1,978.09 25.06 1.28%
Dow 16,739.95 140.10 0.84%
Dow in GOLD $s 309.19 -1.97 -0.63%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.96 -0.10 -0.63%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,125.15 -34.22 -2.95%
US Dollar Index 95.51 -0.25 -0.26%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,120.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,150.24 1,159.20 1,159.20
1/2 AE 0.50 570.69 590.80 1,181.60
1/4 AE 0.25 288.14 301.00 1,204.00
1/10 AE 0.10 117.50 122.64 1,226.40
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,089.04 1,098.04 1,120.22
British sovereign 0.24 265.63 278.63 1,183.63
French 20 franc 0.19 210.67 214.67 1,149.82
Krugerrand 1.00 1,142.40 1,152.40 1,152.40
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,130.00 1,144.00 1,144.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 644.00 588.00 1,176.00
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 285.60 299.60 1,198.40
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 118.72 122.08 1,220.80
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,340.82 1,351.82 1,121.19
.9999 bar 1.00 1,123.92 1,132.00 1,132.00
SPOT SILVER: 14.88      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,856.70 14,214.20 19.88
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,197.85 4,347.85 14.74
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,513.00 1,538.00 15.38
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 150.30 155.30 15.53
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.98 15.44 15.44
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.38 17.88 17.88
SPOT PLATINUM: 975.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 990.80 1,020.80 1,020.80
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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