The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 18 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  11-Sep-15 14-Sep-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,449.00 1,515.40 66.40 4.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,103.50 1,138.10 34.60 3.1
Gold/silver ratio 76.156 75.102 -1.054 -1.4
Silver/gold ratio 0.0131 0.0133 0.0002 1.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 307.84 297.60 -10.24 -3.3
Dow in gold ounces 14.89 14.40 -0.50 -3.3
Dow in Silver ounces 1,134.10 1,081.20 -52.89 -4.7
Dow Industrials 16,433.09 16,384.58 -48.51 -0.3
S&P500 1,961.05 1,958.03 -3.02 -0.2
US dollar index 95.20 95.00 -0.20 -0.2
Platinum 965.20 984.50 19.30 2.0
Palladium 590.50 610.35 19.85 3.4

Stock markets around the world were disappointed by the Fed this week when Our Wise Masters refused to follow their expectations. The blind led the blind right slap into the ditch. The loss for the week was not great, but portends much more & worse to come. US dollar index followed stocks down. Even platinum & palladium joined silver & gold in rising this week. Silver set the bar with a 4.6% climb, but gold lagged not far behind, rising 3.1%.

Gruesome describes the outlook for stocks, like something out of Beowulf, bodies, blood, & gore. Yesterday stocks pouted only a little at Mama Yellen, today they threw a fit on the floor, kicking & head-beating. Dow dove 290.16 (1.74%) to 16,384.58. S&P500 plunged 32.17 (1.62%) to 1,958.03. Since the May highs, the Dow has given back 1,927.47 or 10.5%, the S&P500 172.79 or 8.1%.

Look at the charts and notice the pennant or flag formations, and The rule is, "Flags always fly at half staff." Thus the Dow is targeting 14,600 - 14,000 and the S&P 1,750. Just for the end of this first leg down, which started yesterday and will be completed by October's close.

Listen to me, hear me: sell stocks. They have only begun to fall.

So far the US dollar index is following stocks down. Have to infer that the dollar's rise beginning July a year ago from 80 to 102 was spawned by the Fed's dribbling promises to raise interest rates, & the September FOMC meeting was the drop dead date. Now those disappointed speculators are turning against the dollar & the buck will become a pump -- sucking air. The bullet in the head comes when the US dollar index closes below 93.

Today the Dollar index added 32 basis points -- after yesterday's monster 104 bp slide -- and closed at 95.00. Euro backed off yesterday's gains to close $1.1300, down 1.15%. Yen rose 0.44% to 83.67. Both are rallying, but sputteringly.

WHOA! Dow in gold bumped it's head through the 200 DMA at 15.03 oz on Tuesday, when the FOMC meeting was yet a distant threat. Today it crashed through the 20 DMA (14.53 oz) and closed down 2.52% at 14.38 oz. Behold, All dial needles point down, down.

Since Tuesday last the Dow in Silver has dropped 73.28 troy ounces, from 1154.77 to 1,081.49. Fell 1.97% today alone. This day also too it below the 1,104.78 200 day moving average. Lo, the chart! Broke earthward through the uptrend from April 2013, too.

I point y'all also to the Gold/Bank Index spread. This measures confidence in the financial system. As the spread drops, confidence in banks is waxing. As it rises, confidence is waning. When the stock market crashed in august the Gold/Banks spread gapped up three days running. Heartening sign for gold. Then the spread fell as stocks rallied, but then the FOMC spake. The spread has gapped up now two days running, a very well-muscled sign for gold. Remember, the spread is a fraction with gold the numerator & banks the denominator. More gold gains against banks, the higher the spread floats. What this spread depicts is that faltering confidence in the monetary & financial system which creates the magic ingredient for a precious metals rally: monetary demand. Here's the picture,

Also it's worth noting, just to put the spike into the deflation hoax, that the inflation markets oil and copper may have turned up. May have.

'Twas the best week silver & gold have seen in a coon's age, not only in the solid gains, but in what they promise. Today silver popped up 17.9 cents (1.2%) to 1515.4 cents and gold $20.80 (1.9%) to $1,135.30

On the monthly chart Gold has piled up two higher months but needs a close above $1,250 to confirm a reversal upwards.

On the daily chart gold has punched through its 50 ($1,118) and 20 ($1,126.69) day moving averages, as well as validating the uptrend line from the July low. Next challenge stands at $1,150, where gold failed 1 September, & beyond that in price & importance, $1,170, where August's rally peaked. Up at $1,181.56 is the 200 day moving average, which gold conceivably could reach next week. I may be a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, but don't laugh at that. You might choke on them chuckles later. Meditate on the chart,

In three days silver has gained nearly a dollar. It burst through its 20 & 50 DMA's, turning momentum up, then crashed through overhead resistance at 1435c. Today it closed slap on the downtrend line from the April 2013 high. 200 DMA stands above at only 1605c, less than a dollar.

A lot of folks are hanging back, thinking it might not yet be time to buy silver & gold. Me, I think that's a king error. I keep remembering those dark days of fall 2008, when silver tumbled to 880c and gold to $705. That was the last time I saw silver in short supply as severe as it is now, with 8 week delivery and US 90% coin at a $5/oz premium. I keep remember that from those lows, within 3 years silver was at 4850c and gold at $1,900. Waiting didn't do nobody no good in November 2008.

But what do I know -- no mor'n a fool talking.


No matter how I try, I always end up with a few things I don't usually inventory. Only way I know to clean it out from time to time is to cut the price & move it out. Here are just three offers, all based on gold at $1,138.10:


In 1980 the US government began minting the American Arts Medallion series. They're so paranoid about gold they wouldn't call them -- shhhh! -- "gold coins," but that's what they are. Minted in 90% fine gold, they contain one ounce or one half ounce pure gold. I have ten (10) each Marian Anderson one-half ounce at $591.80 each, a 4% premium over gold content. In this same lot I'm throwing a beautiful Panamanian 100 Balboa minted in 90% gold and containing 0.2361 ounce of gold, for $278.10, a premium of 3.5%. Plus I am adding One each Credit Suisse one ounce gold bar and One each P.A.M.P gold bar at $1,200.75 each or a 5.5% premium. Whole lot contains 7.2361 troy ounces at $8,597.60. (That's a 4.4% premium on the whole lot.) Add $35 for shipping for a total $8,632.60. Sorry, one lot only.


Australia mints a one ounce 24 karat gold coin called, oddly enough, a "Kangaroo." I have three of these I'll sell at $1,203.50 each, a 5-3/4% premium. Total including $35 shipping is $3,645.50. Sorry, one lot only, can't re-order at that price.


During the 1980s & 1990s the United States mint issued gold $5.00 & $10.00 commemorative coins to the ancient (pre-1986) standard. I love these because they are minted in stunning proof condition, come in individual plastic containers, and they're cheap. I have Eleven (11) each of the $5 commems (contains 0.2419 oz) at $289.55 each (5.2% premium) and one (1) $10 commem (contains 0.4838 oz gold) at $579.10 each (5.2% premium). Whole lot of twelve coins (3.1444 oz. of gold) costs $3.764.15 plus $35 shipping for a total of $3,799.15. Sorry, only one lot.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your email.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "No Nag Basis." That means that we allow fourteen (14) days for your personal check to clear before we ship. Phone calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely & patiently rebuffed. In a hurry? Send a bank wire and we'll ship in three days. DO NOT send a cashier's check, we do not accept them. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because I won't get it.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

6. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,138.10 20.80 1.9
Silver, $/oz 15.15 0.18 1.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.102 1.364 1.8
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0002 1.2
Platinum 984.50 16.00 1.7
Palladium 598.50 11.85 2.0
S&P 500 1,958.03 -32.17 -1.6
Dow 16,384.58 -290.16 -1.7
Dow in GOLD $s 297.60 -10.88 -3.5
Dow in GOLD oz 14.40 -0.53 -3.5
Dow in SILVER oz 1,081.20 -32.30 -2.9
US Dollar Index 95.00 0.32 0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,139.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,170.53 1,179.07 1,179.07
1/2 AE 0.50 580.48 600.93 1,201.86
1/4 AE 0.25 293.09 306.16 1,224.64
1/10 AE 0.10 119.51 124.74 1,247.42
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,107.71 1,116.71 1,139.27
British sovereign 0.24 270.18 283.18 1,202.97
French 20 franc 0.19 214.28 218.28 1,169.17
Krugerrand 1.00 1,159.71 1,169.71 1,169.71
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,149.20 1,163.20 1,163.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 655.04 598.08 1,196.16
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 290.50 304.74 1,218.94
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 120.76 124.17 1,241.73
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,363.81 1,374.81 1,140.26
.9999 bar 1.00 1,143.19 1,151.20 1,151.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.20      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,085.50 14,443.00 20.20
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,292.25 4,442.25 15.06
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,545.00 1,570.00 15.70
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 153.50 158.50 15.85
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.30 15.76 15.76
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.70 18.20 18.20
SPOT PLATINUM: 984.50      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 999.50 1,029.50 1,029.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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