The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 22 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry I missed y'all yesterday evening, but I am realizing in my old age I cannot be in two places at the same time, & enough work is enough. Today I been rode hard and put away wet, because lower silver & gold prices always send in a flood of customers. Y'all be patient with me . . . or I'll bite ya.

Here is a measure of progress, & of the battle the Nice Government Men fight day after day [wipe away tear slowly] trying to paint the tape & keep everybody fooled that All's Swell In The World Cause The Gummit's In Charge. It also illustrates why I keep gainsaying those "Manipulation is everything" folks, namely, the manipulators can only manipulate at the margin, only briefly, and never successfully against the long term trend.

I mean, of course, the Dow. Why yesterday the NGM & the Wall Street pimps did a great job pushing the Dow up 125.61 with talk about how the Fed would raise rates after all, later in the year, narf-narf-narf, when anybody with half an eyeball and a quarter of a brain knows the Fed lost all credibility last week when it blinked & raised not interest rates.

But today the Dow LOST 179.72, netting a minus 54.11 for the two days. Yeah, buddy, them Nice Government Men are doing a bang-up jawb. Dow settled at 16,330.47, down 1.09%. S&P500 lost 24.23 (1.23%) to 1,942.74.

Listen now, and hear me, mark down my words and see: stocks peaked in May & will lose as much or more by October's end than they have lost already. Sell your stocks.

Of course, those of you with fat stock portfolios will say, "He is a bug-eyed looney" but you will be no different from every poor vainglorious soul since the Babylonian Wheat Exchange who has confused a bull market with investing genius. Sell now. In a bear market, money returns to its rightful owner.

Only thing that bothers me about today -- that's right, I am not bothered by silver & gold slipping, not one flyspeck -- is that US dollar index climbing 41 basis points (0.43%) to 96.45 after it climbed yesterday 104 bps. That I could chalk off to the stock market's rise, but it rose again today.

Bethatasitmay, the dollar has only reached its 50 day moving average, the marker that stopped it cold as kraut the last time it tried to escape. I didn't find any news item that rationally explained yesterday's dollar surge, but I didn't have much time to look yesterday evening & today none atall. Chart's here,

Gold dropped $8.10 (0.7%) today to close Comex at $1,125, after dropping $5.00 yesterday. Silver -- oooch -- lost 46.6 cents (3%) to end at 1475c. Yesterday it actually GAINED 6.2 cents. Is all lost?

Not by a long shot. Gold reached resistance above $1,140 & fell back, but today closed only at its 20 DMA ($1,123.80). Look at the chart, You'll find no disaster there. Below gold needs to hold $1,105 and above it needs to crack $1,150, then $1,170.

Here's a question to ask yourself and your spouse: If the stock market is crashing, would you rather hold electrons in the bank or gold in your hand?

Silver's fine, too, just hit that support at 1500c and fell through. Go look at the chart, Silver fell back through its 50 DMA nearly to the 20 DMA, giving back about half of what it gained last week. So? So what? Normal up and down market action.

Here's a question to ask yourself and your spouse: If the stock market is crashing and the US government closes the banks, would you rather have nice safe FDIC insured bank deposits, or silver in your hand?

Beats me. I'm jus' a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,133.10 -8.10 -0.71%
Silver, $/oz 15.22 -0.47 -2.97%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.468 1.696 2.33%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 -0.0003 -2.28%
Platinum 937.60 -36.20 -3.72%
Palladium 610.85 -4.90 -0.80%
S&P 500 1,942.74 -24.23 -1.23%
Dow 16,330.47 -179.72 -1.09%
Dow in GOLD $s 297.93 -1.14 -0.38%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.41 -0.06 -0.38%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,073.24 20.43 1.94%
US Dollar Index 96.45 0.41 0.43%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,124.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,156.40 1,164.27 1,164.27
1/2 AE 0.50 573.19 593.38 1,186.77
1/4 AE 0.25 289.40 302.32 1,209.27
1/10 AE 0.10 118.01 123.18 1,231.77
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,094.91 1,103.91 1,126.21
British sovereign 0.24 266.79 279.79 1,188.56
French 20 franc 0.19 211.59 215.59 1,154.76
Krugerrand 1.00 1,147.40 1,157.40 1,157.40
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,134.90 1,148.90 1,148.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 646.82 590.57 1,181.15
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 286.85 300.91 1,203.64
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 119.24 122.61 1,226.14
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,348.04 1,359.04 1,127.18
.9999 bar 1.00 1,128.84 1,136.90 1,136.90
SPOT SILVER: 14.75      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,763.75 13,978.75 19.55
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,159.50 4,309.50 14.61
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,500.00 1,525.00 15.25
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 149.00 154.00 15.40
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.85 15.31 15.31
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.25 17.75 17.75
SPOT PLATINUM: 937.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 952.60 982.60 982.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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