The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 23 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Today Mario "Would-You-Buy-A-Used-Car-From-This-Man" Draghi, head criminal at the European Central Bank, stated that the ECB need more time before deciding on additional stimulus measures, i.e., more quantitative easing. I reckon that put downward pressure on the buck ("We're going to depreciate the euro more slowly"), and gold took a big $20 jump. US Dollar index sank to a 95.57 low, but later recovered much of that. Stocks behaved like the dollar, with a big fall and later lame recovery.

Yeah, Buddy! Ain't nothing like central banks to stabilize markets.

As if one criminal flapping his lips weren't enough, Comrade Janet Yellen, head criminal at the US Federal Reserve, tried to resuscitate the Fed's dying credibility by speechifying that the Fed might raise rates later in the year. I reckon this is how mountainous Our Masters' contempt for us really is. They make empty boasts and claims, are exposed as fools and cowards by their acts, then slink back onstage as if nothing had happened to see if we will buy the same lie twice. What this country needs is to revive the salutary custom of Tarring & Feathering & Riding Out of Town on a Rail. Make that hot tar, and buzzard feathers --nasty buzzard feathers.

Dow traded as low as 16,016, down 263, but climbed from about 1:30 to recover about 190 points of that and end the day down "only" 78.57 (0.48%) at 16,201.32. S&P lost 6.52 (0.48%) to end at 1,923.24. That recovery may be hinting at a higher day tomorrow. Maybe. Yet the trend is firmly down and the main chance is lower stocks tomorrow..

Dow in Gold, Old Reliable, sank 2.54% today to 14.05. I want y'all to look at the chart, so you can see how far below its 200 & even 20 day moving averages it stands. AND the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned down again. DiG long ago (August) fell through the uptrend line from August 2013, and now is zeroing in on the uptrend line from the 2011 low. Another big fall is coming that should pull it below the 13.74 August low.

Dow in silver chart, shows much the same picture, but is not quite as far along as the Dow in Gold. DiS stands below all its moving averages, including the 200. Dropped 2.85% today to close at 1,074.52. That's near the 1,068.65 August low.

Looks like Draghi's remarks sent the Nice Government Men scrambling to salvage the US dollar index, which tanked 70 basis points but closed only 6 basis points below yesterday. Smells like the fish market down on Decatur in New Orleans. Might even rally tomorrow.

Euro rose a nothing 0.1% to $1.1195. Y'all better take that European vacation while there are still some Europeans left. They're gonna be rarer than spotted owls and snail darters pretty soon. May qualify for the Endangered Species List.

Yen rose 0.02 to 83.18. Chart has developed an even-sided triangle that is fixin' to break out one way or t'other, and since it stands above the 20 DMA, my guess is upwards. Nice Government Men in Nippon will discountenance this.

On Comex gold shot up $22.20 or 2% to $1,153.80. Lo, I will have more to say about THAT in a moment. Silver leapt 34.5 cents to 1512.5c, over 1500c at last. I told y'all I wasn't worried about either one of 'em the other day, when they fell so low, bless their little hearts.

Go look at and pay no attention to anything but one: gold poking its head over that red downtrend line from last January, then also closing out there. And closing above that internal support-resistance line. All indicators point up, but gold must still conquer $1,170. It needs to rise further and longer.

Now look at silver's chart,

Just look at that one thing: silver closed above the downtrend line from the April 2013 high. And another thing, above the 1495-ish top of its July - August range. Okay, 1500c was the first hurdle, but now that August high at 1572c become the next. This is all the more encouraging because the 200 day moving average floats less than a dollar above silver. It can easily leap that in two or three days.

24 September 1869 was Black Friday. Wall Street panicked after Gould & Fisk attempted to corner the gold market.

On 24 September 1789 President George Washington nominated John Jay to be the first chief Justice of the supreme court. That turned out to be a mistake.

On 24 September 1862 the Confederate Congress adopted a seal for the confederacy. The motto was Deo vindice, God will prove us right.

Gotta run -- Susan's waiting supper on me.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
24-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,153.80 22.20 1.96%
Silver, $/oz 15.13 0.35 2.33%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.284 -0.279 -0.36%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 0.0000 0.37%
Platinum 955.90 22.30 2.39%
Palladium 655.90 10.90 1.69%
S&P 500 1,932.24 -6.52 -0.34%
Dow 16,201.32 -78.57 -0.48%
Dow in GOLD $s 290.27 -7.13 -2.40%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.04 -0.34 -2.40%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,071.16 -30.32 -2.75%
US Dollar Index 96.15 -0.06 -0.06%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,150.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,181.26 1,190.46 1,190.46
1/2 AE 0.50 586.09 606.73 1,213.46
1/4 AE 0.25 295.92 309.12 1,236.47
1/10 AE 0.10 120.67 125.95 1,259.47
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,120.66 1,129.66 1,152.48
British sovereign 0.24 272.79 285.79 1,214.05
French 20 franc 0.19 216.35 220.35 1,180.25
Krugerrand 1.00 1,169.75 1,179.75 1,179.75
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,160.20 1,174.20 1,174.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 661.37 603.86 1,207.71
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 293.30 307.68 1,230.71
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 121.92 125.37 1,253.72
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,376.97 1,387.97 1,151.18
.9999 bar 1.00 1,154.23 1,162.20 1,162.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.05      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,763.75 14,049.75 19.65
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,248.00 4,398.00 14.91
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,530.00 1,555.00 15.55
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 152.00 157.00 15.70
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.15 15.61 15.61
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.55 18.05 18.05
SPOT PLATINUM: 955.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 970.90 1,000.90 1,000.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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