The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 25 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  18-Sep-15 25-Sep-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,515.40 1,510.60 -4.80 -0.3
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,138.10 1,146.00 7.90 0.7
Gold/silver ratio 75.102 75.864 0.762 1.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0133 0.0132 -0.0001 -1.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 297.60 294.29 -3.31 -1.1
Dow in gold ounces 14.40 14.24 -0.16 -1.1
Dow in Silver ounces 1,081.20 1,080.01 -1.19 -0.1
Dow Industrials 16,384.58 16,314.67 -69.91 -0.4
S&P500 1,958.03 1,931.34 -26.69 -1.4
US dollar index 95.00 96.43 1.43 1.5
Platinum 984.50 951.20 -33.30 -3.4
Palladium 610.35 667.55 57.20 9.4

Before I get to markets, here are a couple of meditations I can no longer hold in.

23 September 2015 came and went, but Jonathan Cahn's Harbinger prophecies about a collapsing stock market, economic collapse, etc. came not to pass. America slid not out into the sea, although justice urges it.

Old Testament law required that false prophets be stoned. Today, they just publish another sensational book and appear on more talk shows. There must be a better way to sell books.

In the global scheme of gold & silver markets, we in the retail market are mere pissants. Yet last week one pissant retail dealer I know bought a big ($5 bn/yr +) dealer out of 100 oz bars (he refused to sell any more) AND thousand ounce bars. Deliveries of 100 oz bars & one ounce rounds have stretched out to 4 - 6 weeks, nobody knows when the US mint will deliver silver American Eagles, and the Canadian mint has fallen behind on delivering silver Maple Leaves. Those who have a few silver American Eagles are selling them north of $5/oz over spot, and US 90% silver coin, one of the very few actually in hand and shippable silver, costs $4.65/oz over spot at wholesale. Almost everything else carries a wait of 4 - 6 weeks.

Even given the American silver retail products industry's tinyness as opposed to the world market, doesn't it seem awfully curious that this little pissant corner of the market could run slap out of silver? I don't fancy those internet gurus who can leap to tall (unjustified) conclusions at a single bound, but this retail market silver shortage leaves me wondering just how much silver really exists in the world -- silver that can be brought to market immediately.

If our little footnote market indicates anything, it's that far less ready-for-market silver exists than people suspect. I've always called silver the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals because it don't get no respect, but one of these days silver will avenge that contempt with soaring prices. Hide'n watch.


Demonstrating that the American public may in fact be as stupid as Our Masters believe, stocks rose today after Comrade Janet Yellen's drooling about higher interest rates to come later this year. In a pig's eye. Anyway, emboldened by Janet's silly blarney, stock buyers eager for punishment crowded in and ran the Dow up 264 points, but, whoops, after 2:00 the rats started leaping out of the ship and it closed up only 113.35 (0.7%) at 16,314.67. S&P500 fared not so well, ending down 0.9 (0.05%) at 1931.34.

Is this bad? Let me count the ways. First, stocks made the gains, but were too weak to hold on to them --- too many sellers waiting for just one more tick up. More, the S&P500 & the Dow gainsayed each other, not ever a rosy outcome for indices that kiss & hold hands. Finally, both indices ended the week lower, never a token of good times to come.

Speaking of sellers, y'all ought to take advantage of ANY stock rally to sell stocks. More weeping, wailing, & gnashing coming.

US DOLLAR INDEX followed stocks up, climbed over its 50 DMA, shot up to a 96.88 high, then fell back to close almost dead on the 50 DMA (96.42). Buyers & sellers evenly matched. Dollar will eventually resolve, downward. Ultimate target is a dollar index below 50.

The UN has published its Global Goals which promise to end extreme poverty, fight inequality & injustice, fix climate change, and cure athlete's foot and halitosis. Where do they get this stuff? Listen, folks, all these moonbeams will vanish quicker'n you can say "Morons in charge" when the economy gets tough, and toughen it will. Truth is, if you can't survive digging grubs out of flower pots, you may not make it. Y'all hear that, millennials? Ain't no Starbucks in flower pots. I ain't worried. I got me a tin bill and I can peck in the dirt with the chickens.

Back to markets. Today gold backed off $7.80 (0.6%) to $1,146.00 while silver through tight-clasped fingers gave up on 1.9 cents, closing at 1510.6c.

Ain't no cloudy sky here at the Moneychanger's. This is normal market action. Both silver and gold have rallied off July lows. Rallies, remember, go up & down, zig & zag, two steps up, one step back. Yesterday gold hit that downtrend line from the January high, and today backed off a smidge. Recall yesterday, when it rose $22.20, & be content. Recall the market proverb: bulls get rich, and bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered. Here's gold's chart:

Yesterday silver ran into the downtrend line from the April 2013 high. Again, at major resistance markets often have to take two or three runs at it to break through. Look, it's in an uptrend -- higher highs and higher lows -- from the July bottom. It's the early stages of a rally. Wait till the jet fuel kicks in. Silver chart:

Time to buy silver & gold. The long winter of correction has passed.


This 90% silver coin is about the only silver I have on hand to ship tomorrow. I know the premium is high, so I have priced this at the same rate as if you were buying $75,000 worth.

US 90% silver dimes, quarters and halves were minted before 1965. 90% pure silver by weight, each one dollar face value (ten dimes, four quarters, or two halves) contains 0.715 troy ounce of pure silver. That means that roughly $1.40 face value makes an ounce (1.001 oz exactly). This are the smallest minted pieces of silver available on planet earth. A dime contains 0.0715 troy ounce, a quarter 0.1788 oz, a half dollar 0.3575 oz. $140 face value contains 100.1 ounces of pure silver.

Here's the deal: I'll sell $140.00 face value (my choice of denomination) for $14.364 times face value. That's $2,010.96 per lot, plus $35 for shipping or a grand total of $2,045.96 per lot.

That $14.364 price is calculated off spot silver at $15.05, and is a premium of 33.5%. These are in stock and ready to ship, but remember if you pay with a check (you are welcome to do that) we allow 14 days for your check to clear. Pay with a wire and we ship in three days.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

Offering me an alternative helps. For instance, "I want three lots, but will settle for one if that's all you have available."

This will be MY choice of denominations. You can ask for a denomination, but I won't promise anything.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,146.00 -7.80 -0.7
Silver, $/oz 15.11 -0.02 -0.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.864 -0.515 -0.7
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0000 -0.1
Platinum 951.20 -4.70 -0.5
Palladium 667.55 11.65 1.8
S&P 500 1,931.34 -0.90 -0.0
Dow 16,314.67 113.30 0.7
Dow in GOLD $s 294.29 4.05 1.4
Dow in GOLD oz 14.24 0.20 1.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,080.01 8.85 0.8
US Dollar Index 96.43 0.28 0.3
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,146.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,177.15 1,186.32 1,186.32
1/2 AE 0.50 584.05 604.62 1,209.24
1/4 AE 0.25 294.89 308.04 1,232.17
1/10 AE 0.10 120.25 125.51 1,255.09
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,116.76 1,125.76 1,148.50
British sovereign 0.24 271.84 284.84 1,210.02
French 20 franc 0.19 215.60 219.60 1,176.22
Krugerrand 1.00 1,164.54 1,174.54 1,174.54
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,156.20 1,170.20 1,170.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 659.07 601.76 1,203.51
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 292.28 306.61 1,226.43
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 121.50 124.94 1,249.36
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,372.19 1,383.19 1,147.21
.9999 bar 1.00 1,150.21 1,158.20 1,158.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.05      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,728.00 14,085.50 19.70
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,248.00 4,398.00 14.91
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,530.00 1,555.00 15.55
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 152.00 157.00 15.70
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.15 15.61 15.61
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.55 18.05 18.05
SPOT PLATINUM: 951.20      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 966.20 996.20 996.20
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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