The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Wednesday, 30 September a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  31-Aug-15 30-Sep-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,457.70 1,451.30 -6.40 -0.4
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,131.60 1,115.50 -16.10 -1.4
Gold/silver ratio 77.629 76.862 -0.767 -1.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0129 0.0130 0.0001 1.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 301.93 301.78 -0.15 -0.1
Dow in gold ounces 14.61 14.60 -0.01 -0.1
Dow in Silver ounces 1,133.84 1,122.08 -11.77 -1.0
Dow Industrials 16,528.03 16,284.70 -243.33 -1.5
S&P500 1,972.18 1,920.03 -52.15 -2.6
US dollar index 95.80 96.48 0.68 0.7
Platinum 1,010.10 907.20 -102.90 -10.2
Palladium 601.55 651.00 49.45 8.2

PAINTING THE TAPE: I saw the headline & immediately understood why stocks had to rise today: "Wall Street ends worst quarter in four years with a rally." The Nice Government Men have been of course, unable to stem the tidal wave smashing stocks, but they could paint the tape just a little to make it seem better somehow -- and to suck in more of the Main Street rubes in to their financial destruction.

It's okay. Those cheap tricks work at the margin, for a day, then they fade. King Canute never could command the sea to turn back. Neither can the NGM.

I thought it might instruct us to see how everything did over the last month. Silver barely moved, gold lost 1.45, but the Dow lost 243.33 or 1.5% while the S&P500 lost 52.15 or 2.6%. US dollar index gained 68 basis points or 0.7%. Platinum took a beating, down 10.2%, but palladium jumped up 8.2%.

Stocks today, as noted, rallied. Dow rose 235.37 or 1.47% to 16,284.70. S&P500 rose 35.94 (1.91%) to 1,920.03. On a chart this less than impressive performance doesn't even reach the 20 DMA, but for both it is a confirmed key reversal, so we will probably see higher stock prices tomorrow. I reckon the Big Fellers still had some stock they wanted to fob off on the turnipseeds.

US dollar index rose 49 basis points (0.51%) to 96.48. It is jumping back & forth over its 50 day moving average (96.32), but today was merely a lower high in a series of lower highs, i.e., more downtrend. Still following stocks day by day.

I am interested to note that WTIC (Light Crude Oil) has risen the past two days. It's in a long pennant which cold be a consolidation, but could also be a continuation. Copper Jumped 3.7% today and looks like it's made a double bottom. Wonder why these inflation markets would be trying to turn up?

Gold broke support around $1,125 and tumbled $11.60 (1.03%) to $1,115.50. Silver dropped only 5.6 cents (0.4%) to 1451.3 cents.

Silver's chart today is quite strange. It range-traded from 1470c to 1460c until a little before 10:00 a.m., when it dropped down to 1450c. But about 11:30 it went crazy and jumped straight up to 1475c, and just as quickly fell again below 1460c. Rest of the day flatlined, except for one more attempt to break down at 1450c, which silver fought off. On the longer term chart silver lodged right on the lower boundary of that even-sided triangle. Must hold there.

Gold traded in a tiny tight range just under $1,125, until 10:00 when it broke $1,120 and slid to a low at $1,110. Rest of the day slept. On the longer term chart, this brings gold to rest near the lower triangle boundary.

Nothing for it but to wait patiently. Large plunge still stands across stocks' future.

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Sep-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,115.50 -11.60 -1.0
Silver, $/oz 14.51 -0.06 -0.4
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.862 -0.796 -1.0
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 -0.0000 -0.4
Platinum 907.20 -9.90 -1.1
Palladium 651.00 -6.40 -1.0
S&P 500 1,920.03 35.94 1.9
Dow 16,284.70 235.37 1.5
Dow in GOLD $s 301.78 7.45 2.5
Dow in GOLD oz 14.60 0.36 2.5
Dow in SILVER oz 1,122.08 20.47 1.9
US Dollar Index 96.48 0.49 0.5
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SPOT GOLD: 1,115.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,146.32 1,154.13 1,154.13
1/2 AE 0.50 568.19 588.22 1,176.43
1/4 AE 0.25 286.88 299.68 1,198.73
1/10 AE 0.10 116.98 122.10 1,221.03
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,087.56 1,096.56 1,118.71
British sovereign 0.24 264.46 277.46 1,178.69
French 20 franc 0.19 209.75 213.75 1,144.89
Krugerrand 1.00 1,135.17 1,145.17 1,145.17
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,125.10 1,139.10 1,139.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 641.18 585.43 1,170.86
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 284.35 298.29 1,193.16
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 118.20 121.55 1,215.46
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,334.95 1,345.95 1,116.33
.9999 bar 1.00 1,119.00 1,127.10 1,127.10
SPOT SILVER: 14.49      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,216.78 13,574.28 18.99
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,081.33 4,331.33 14.68
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,473.50 1,498.50 14.99
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 146.35 151.35 15.14
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.59 15.05 15.05
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.99 17.49 17.49
SPOT PLATINUM: 907.20      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 922.20 952.20 952.20
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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