The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 6 October a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Gold took another run at that door today & busted it plumb down. But first, let's deal with the nasty markets. Always best to do your worst job first.

The grim reaper, Reality, caught up with stocks today. Go to & look at a chart of any index, and you'll find them all laboring in heavy seas, trying without success to lift themselves up to the unchanged line. Dow alone gained 13.76 or 0.8% to 16,790.19. All other indices (I follow) fell. S&P500 dropped 7.13 (0.36%). Lowlife that I am, I will notice that the Dow alone pierced its 50 DMA, but barely. Others acted as if they were Superman & that 50 DMA was kryptonite. More or less to be expected. Next stop? 20th sub-basement.

Dow in silver passed a milestone today, dropping below the last two 1,070-ish ounce lows to a new low at 1,050.44 oz. 200 DMA is floating way up there at 1,106.03 oz. Go, feast your eyes!

Dow in Gold closed down 0.9% at 14.65 oz. Fixin' to drop more.

Reality put on his stainless steel upper plate and took a bit out of the US dollar index, too. Dollar plunged 72 basis points (0.75%) to 95.51, I mean one single basis point above support. Hit a low at 95.40. Buzzards are circling: closed below the 200 dma (95.76) today. Will soon resume its sinking trajectory toward its intrinsic value: zero.

Euro couldn't work up too much gusto today, up 0.74% to $1.1272, but no breakout. Ditto the yen, up 0.19% to 83.19.

In no particular order, here are observations I don't want y'all to overlook.

First time ever the US Treasury sold 3-month Treasury bills at zero percent yield today. Hell is full and the damned are walking the earth.

Yankee government feels so sorry for having the hugest prison population in the world they're fixing to turn loose 6,000 inmates convicted on drug charges. Bet they ain't releasing anybody convicted on income tax charges.

WTIC (proxy for oil) broke out upside from a pennant today. Genuine. What does that make of all that Fed drivel about no inflation?

US 10 year treasury yield appears to have double bottomed. I know, I know, there's that news item about 3 month treasury bills, but that's probably a Top headline There's a double bottom here at 1.905. Go look,

FINALLY gold joined the party, shooting up today $8.70 or 0.76% to $1,146.80. Silver jumped another 27.7c or 1.76%, relentlessly to 1597.9.

This gold & silver party is heating up, I'm telling y'all. Better listen up.

Gold/Silver ratio today sank to 71.769, way below that uptrend line from July 14. It's breaking DOWN, which means silver & gold will move UP. Go look,

Gold busted through that downtrend line from the January 2015 high. It traded to $1,151, but couldn't push through $1,150. 'Sokay, though, gold has taken the first step beating that downtrend. Hot stuff coming, y'all watch. Oh, here's a chart,

Silver's the go-wheel here. LOOK, LOOK, at end of day silver closed above its 200 dma (1597c). Traded up to 1609c today, and kicked the snot out of resistance at 1572c. Next stop is 1770c. Y'all back off! Watch out! That silver is LOOSE, and out of her cage & raging!

At the risk of repeating myself, I will say again, y'all better climb aboard this gold and silver train.

On 6 October 1889 Thomas Edison showed his first motion picture. Boy! Was that a mistake.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Oct-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,146.80 8.70 0.76%
Silver, $/oz 15.98 0.28 1.76%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.769 -0.712 -0.98%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0139 0.0001 0.99%
Platinum 933.00 21.90 2.40%
Palladium 706.35 18.50 2.69%
S&P 500 1,979.92 -7.13 -0.36%
Dow 16,790.19 13.76 0.08%
Dow in GOLD $s 302.65 -2.06 -0.68%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.64 -0.10 -0.68%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,050.77 -17.66 -1.65%
US Dollar Index 95.51 -0.72 -0.75%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,147.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,179.32 1,187.35 1,187.35
1/2 AE 0.50 584.56 605.15 1,210.30
1/4 AE 0.25 295.15 308.31 1,233.24
1/10 AE 0.10 120.35 125.62 1,256.18
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,118.86 1,127.86 1,150.65
British sovereign 0.24 272.08 285.08 1,211.03
French 20 franc 0.19 215.79 219.79 1,177.23
Krugerrand 1.00 1,167.85 1,177.85 1,177.85
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,157.20 1,171.20 1,171.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 659.64 602.28 1,204.56
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 292.54 306.88 1,227.50
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 121.60 125.04 1,250.45
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,373.38 1,384.38 1,148.20
.9999 bar 1.00 1,151.22 1,159.20 1,159.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.91      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,520.65 14,378.15 20.11
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,501.70 4,751.70 16.11
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,616.00 1,641.00 16.41
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 160.60 165.60 16.56
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.01 16.47 16.47
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.41 18.91 18.91
SPOT PLATINUM: 933.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 948.00 978.00 978.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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