The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 14 October a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry I have missed y'all the last two days, but I had to finish my monthly newsletter for paid subscribers.

This morning early Susan & I stopped at Hardee's on the way down to Alabama to pick up some seed for winter pasture. Hardee's is about the only fast food place that sells anything like a gluten-free meal. To their slogan, "Eat like you mean it," hardly an encouragement to self-control, they have added, "Make it a complete meal: enjoy complete happiness." What a dope I am! All these years I was complicating my life & tying my mind in knots trying to grasp true happiness, and all I had to do was order a complete meal. Ain't the modern world (& advertising) marv'lous clever to cut thru the Gordian Knot of philosophy with the razor of self-indulgence?

I didn't watch the Democratic debates last night because I had a household emergency straightening my sock drawer and driving the dust bunnies out from under my bed, HOWEVER, if I were a suspicious person (perish the thought) after Bernie Sanders said the campaign ought to be about issues & not about Hillary's emails, I would suspect that Bernie was a ringer, running to make life easier for Hillary, & would wonder how much that softball cost had cost. But I am a trusting person.

A reader kindly sent me a news item from today about Walmart's 10% plunge today when the company slashed its growth outlook. Walmart stock's worst ever one day decline, and he biggest percentage fall since 1988. My friend asks, right trenchantly, "If folks can't afford to spend money at Walmart, what does that mean for the rest of retail?"

Stocks held up one day longer than I expected, but the Dow eased off 50 points yesterday and tumbled 157.14 (0.92%) today to 16,924.75. S&P lost 9.45 (0.47%) today for a 1,994.24 close.

I wish I wasn't such a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, cause then I could look at stock charts like this and this & I could see what them Wall Street smarties see. They see a market about to fly to the moon, while a fool can only see a broken market that rallied back to its breakdown point & now is fixing to have its chain pulled again. I just don't have what it takes, cuz I look and all I see is that market falling on rising volume, & it makes my teeth chatter.

But I don't know sic 'em from come here.

Dow in silver closed at a new low since the July peak, 1,050.12 oz. against the lowest low, 1,068.65. Mercy, y'all, it's fixin' to sink out of sight!

Dow in Gold isn't quite as dramatic, but closed today down 1.87% at 14.35 oz, against the August low at 13.74 oz. Both the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are firmly headed downward, as their position below their 200 day moving averages screams.

I expected the US dollar index to move lower, but I didn't expect it to jump off a cliff. Lost 88 basis points (0.92%) to 93.92 today. That's below the last intraday low at 94.19 About the only dignity it hasn't left in the gutter is that last panic low at 92.52. It looks plumb broke now, but a close below that 92.52 will break its back sure enough.

Euro made some headway in a rally today, up 0.77% to $1.1470. Yen jumped 0.76% to 84.14. Both have turned up against the dollar. Both.

Gold jumped up $14.30 (1.2%) to $1.180.10 while silver vaulted 20.5 cents 1.3% to 1610.2c.

Couldn't look better: gold shot through its 200 DMA AND the downtrend line from Oct. 2012. This is not the end, but the beginning of the move. Must bust through $1,205 next, then head for $1,232. Go, behold, look!

Silver has formed a flag, and flags always fly at half staff. That implies a silver move to 1786 cents before it quits to breath hard. Today closed above the 200 dma.

If y'all have been waiting to buy, stop waiting and buy. I ain't kiddin'.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Oct-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,180.10 14.30 1.23%
Silver, $/oz 16.10 0.21 1.29%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.289 -0.046 -0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 0.0000 0.06%
Platinum 991.50 2.70 0.27%
Palladium 684.05 15.55 2.33%
S&P 500 1,994.25 -9.45 -0.47%
Dow 16,924.75 -157.14 -0.92%
Dow in GOLD $s 296.47 -6.42 -2.12%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.34 -0.31 -2.12%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,051.10 -23.44 -2.18%
US Dollar Index 93.92 -0.88 -0.93%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,186.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,215.96 1,227.82 1,227.82
1/2 AE 0.50 604.50 625.77 1,251.55
1/4 AE 0.25 305.21 318.82 1,275.27
1/10 AE 0.10 124.46 129.90 1,299.00
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,157.00 1,166.00 1,189.55
British sovereign 0.24 281.35 287.35 1,220.69
French 20 franc 0.19 223.14 227.14 1,216.62
Krugerrand 1.00 1,205.28 1,215.28 1,215.28
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,196.30 1,210.30 1,210.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 682.12 622.81 1,245.62
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 302.51 317.34 1,269.34
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.75 129.31 1,293.07
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,421.62 1,432.62 1,188.21
.9999 bar 1.00 1,190.45 1,198.30 1,198.30
SPOT SILVER: 16.11      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,231.08 13,731.58 19.21
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,559.23 4,809.23 16.30
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,635.50 1,660.50 16.61
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 162.55 167.55 16.76
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.21 16.67 16.67
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.61 19.11 19.11
SPOT PLATINUM: 991.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,006.50 1,036.50 1,036.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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