The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 4 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Sorry, I'll have to make this short. Susan & I had to visit two dear sick friends in Nashville toda, & time is scarce.

Y'all ought always bear in mind that at crucial tops markets always SEEM their strongest. They seem ready to extend their rise forever. Yet surely they are set in slippery places, & their unique success announces their demise.

Don't know yet whether that has happened with stocks, and I have grimly kept my mouth shut, knowing that the latest phony rise owed everything to the FOMC's lying blarney, & nothing to economic outlook. But today I noticed that Clive Maund, an outstanding technician, pointed out that the MACD indicator for stocks is at its highest level in 15 years, since the 2000 crash. I have not luxurious time today to list all the other portents, so leave it at this: If I were a Roman augur & Wall Street had come to me to read its future out of a freshly killed sheep liver, I'd have to point out that the liver was black & full of maggots, not a hopeful sign.

Too soon to tell, but yesterday may have been the move's top for stocks. More lower closes needed to confirm. Dow lost 50.57 (0.28%) to 17,867.58 while the S&P500 lost 7.48 (0.35%) to 2,102.31.

Dow in gold at 16.14 oz today against the 16.50 oz July high, has stretched just about as far as it can without negating a turn. Needs a close above 16.50 to do that. Dow in silver stands at 1,186.58 oz against the July high at 1,236.37. Charts are at http://schrts.co/Jk8RbU and at http://schrts.co/ohwLZP

Diverging today from stocks, the US dollar index, scrofulous, scurvy, blood-sucking parasite on the nation and the world, rose 76 basis points (0.78%) to 98. If it pierces this area and continues up, a very large dollar rally lies in store, which will help silver & gold almost as much as a concrete swimming suit.

Gold lost $7.70 (0.7%) to 1,106.50. Silver dropped 1.2% or 18.1 cents to close Comex at 1506.3c. The ratio continues to defy the magnets above & stay low, a hopeful sign. Comex close was 73.458.

Gold now has closed twice below its uptrend line from the July $1,072.30 intraday low. Moving averages are line up bearishly and the RSI is nearing very oversold. Gold has now fallen six days right hand running. I'd buy any sign of a turnaround. I'm going to say I don't believe it will drop below $1,072.30, but then I'm just a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.

Silver caught up with gold's move yesterday and closed barely below the uptrend line from the August 1391c intraday low. May fall further, & certainly will unless it turns round very soon.

Friends, we live in a world of SEEMING, a world where spin, illusion, deceit, and appearance count for more than BEING. It's annoying, irritating, and plumb exasperating sometimes, but it's worth waiting and wading through the lies just to get to watch the truth avenge itself one time.

On 4 November 1956 Russian troops attacked Budapest, Hungary. I was a boy of 9 and remember watching on the TV news Hungarian patriots attacking Russian tanks with Molotov cocktails, climbing up on them to pitch them inside. The West sat on its hands, thanks to power politics & the postwar Yalta deal with Stalin. Last transmission from Hungarian radio was, "Tell the West we are dying for them."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,106.50 -7.70 -0.69%
Silver, $/oz 15.06 -0.18 -1.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.458 0.367 0.50%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 -0.0001 -0.50%
Platinum 954.10 -7.10 -0.74%
Palladium 623.20 -20.60 -3.20%
S&P 500 2,102.31 -7.48 -0.35%
Dow 17,867.88 -50.57 -0.28%
Dow in GOLD $s 333.81 1.37 0.41%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.15 0.07 0.41%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,186.21 10.77 0.92%
US Dollar Index 98.00 0.76 0.78%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,107.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,136.19 1,146.16 1,146.16
1/2 AE 0.50 564.26 584.15 1,168.31
1/4 AE 0.25 284.90 297.61 1,190.46
1/10 AE 0.10 116.17 121.26 1,212.60
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,077.88 1,086.88 1,108.83
British sovereign 0.24 262.64 268.64 1,141.19
French 20 franc 0.19 208.30 212.30 1,137.13
Krugerrand 1.00 1,119.58 1,129.58 1,129.58
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,117.40 1,131.40 1,131.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 636.76 581.39 1,162.77
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 282.39 296.23 1,184.92
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 117.38 120.71 1,207.07
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,327.07 1,338.07 1,109.79
.9999 bar 1.00 1,111.28 1,119.40 1,119.40
SPOT SILVER: 1,508.50      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 1,079,828.75 1,080,258.75 1,510.85
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 444,815.75 445,065.75 1,508.70
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 150,875.00 150,900.00 1,509.00
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 15,086.50 15,091.50 1,509.15
1 oz .999 round 1.00 1,508.60 1,509.15 1,509.15
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 1,510.00 1,511.20 1,511.20
SPOT PLATINUM: 954.10      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 969.10 999.10 999.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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