The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 5 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Hey! Y'all remember the Greek crisis. Now reach back in your memory, because it's been a full thre emonths since it was in the headlines. Well, today the Greek leiglature is poised to approve some of the changes demanded by their creditors so they will release the first loan installment on its bailout.

I offer this merely as an example of how Our Masters handle the financial crises that mushroom out of their system. (I leave off the adjective, since I can't now think of any non-scatalogical one.) Nothing has been fixed, nothing has been reformed, nothing has been changed. The Greek people are still being raped to pay off the banks, but Our Masters are off the hook because the public's meager attention span long ago left the Greek crisis behind. They really did talk it to death.

US dollar index advanced again today, 8 basis points (0.8%) to 98.11. Last little test this rise faces is to best the 98.43 August high. After that the world will be victimized by a long dollar rally.

Euro yesterday broke support reaching back to May, promising a further large drop. Ended today up 0.12% to $1.0880.

Yen today broke support stretching back to August. Closed 82.15, down 0.13%. Break is tee-tiny and needs confirming by lower closes.

Stocks millimetered down. Dow lost 4.15 (0.02%) to 17,863.43. S&P500 backed up 2.38 (0.11%) to 2,099.93. Clearly having trouble punching thru the bottom of that upside-down bowl.

Gold lost $2.10 & closed Comex at $1,104.4. Silver coughed up 7.5 cents to 1498.8c.

Sorry -- that's all you can call it. You'd imagine that after nine down days running, gold would show some little twitch of strenght. You'd be wrong. About the only amazing thing is that it has broken through support at the uptrend line from the August low but not yet cascaded lower. Either that means support at $1,100 is strong, or a cascade awaits in its future.

Silver's done the same thing, only slower.

Although stocks are hinting they might turn down, neither silver nor gold has given any sign it wants to do anythning but fall more.

Times like this, I just have to possess my soul with patience, sure that the laws of economic & monetary gravity have not been perpetually repealed.

"Remember, remember, the fifth of November/Gunpowder, treason, & plot!" The English holiday today, Guy Fawkes Day, commemorates the exposure of the 1604 Gunpowder Plot to blow up parliament. The plotters were captured and tortured. They were all Roman Catholics trying to replace a Protestant government, so their Plot would tar English Roman Catholics for roughly the next 200 years with various civil & religious disabilities.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
5-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,104.40 -2.10 -0.19%
Silver, $/oz 14.99 -0.08 -0.50%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.686 0.227 0.31%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 -0.0000 -0.31%
Platinum 952.40 -1.70 -0.18%
Palladium 606.10 -17.10 -2.74%
S&P 500 2,099.93 -2.38 -0.11%
Dow 17,863.43 -4.15 -0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s 334.36 0.56 0.17%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.17 0.03 0.17%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,191.85 5.66 0.48%
US Dollar Index 98.11 0.08 0.08%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,104.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,133.22 1,143.16 1,143.16
1/2 AE 0.50 562.79 582.62 1,165.25
1/4 AE 0.25 284.15 296.83 1,187.34
1/10 AE 0.10 115.87 120.94 1,209.43
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,075.05 1,084.05 1,105.95
British sovereign 0.24 261.95 267.95 1,138.27
French 20 franc 0.19 207.76 211.76 1,134.21
Krugerrand 1.00 1,116.65 1,126.65 1,126.65
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,114.50 1,128.50 1,128.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 635.09 579.86 1,159.73
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 281.65 295.45 1,181.82
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 117.08 120.39 1,203.91
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,323.60 1,334.60 1,106.91
.9999 bar 1.00 1,108.37 1,116.50 1,116.50
SPOT SILVER: 14.97      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,772.48 12,165.48 17.01
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,222.93 4,472.93 15.16
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,521.50 1,546.50 15.47
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 151.15 156.15 15.62
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.07 15.62 15.62
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.47 17.67 17.67
SPOT PLATINUM: 952.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 967.40 997.40 997.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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