The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 9 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Y'all, it's the strangest thing! You can go to and punch in "xauusdo" for a gold spot chart and "xagusdo" for a silver spot chart, & choose the five day chart.

I'll be switched if they don't look the same -- unparsable. They both trace along without much pattern, then suddenly drop straight down & flatline again. They're not moving in waves like markets do up or down, they're trading straight sideways. Law, those Nice Government Men are getting sloppy, leaving so many fingerprints behind. Hard to get good help today, even for the yankee government.

I've been figuring that stocks topped last week, and so far they haven't disappointed me. Dow lost 179.85 (1%) today, much more than that during the day, & closed at 17,730.48. S&P500 lost 20.62 or 0.98% to end at 2,078.58.

US dollar index closed 18 basis points lower at 99.08. By itself this makes no nevermind, but it does reinforce my suspicion that after its long rally the dollar is ready to take a breather. It would take a close below 95.50 to argue the dollar will not rally further, but only after a correction.

Gold gained a monumental -- hold on to your chair! -- thirty cents today for a $1,087.90 close on Comex. Silver lost 27.5 cents (1.9%) to 1441.8c.

Today silver caught the ague that's been shaking gold. With the low today at 1440c, silver has returned to the bottom of the trading range that prevailed from July through October (with two little dips below it). Likewise gold has nearly reached its July low at $1,072.30.

Res ipsa loquitur. After so many down days both silver & gold are ready for some countertrend rally, even if it's only symbolic & short-lived. Yet this area is crucial. If silver & gold stage a correction, I will still have my eyes on these summer lows, because if they pierce them, they will fall a long ways.

Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger. So far there's not a breath of a turnarond on the charts. Rest assured, quick as I see it I won't keep it a secret.

On 9 November 1799 Napoleon Bonaparte staged a coup and declared himself dictator of France. After untold murders and death, wars and guillotinings, France had come full circle, from monarchy to monarchy, but to a far more lethal version of the same thing.

On 9 November 1989 after dividing Berlin for 28 years the Wall of Shame was opened.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
9-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,087.90 0.30 0.03%
Silver, $/oz 14.42 -0.28 -1.89%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.454 1.448 1.96%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 -0.0003 -1.92%
Platinum 939.60 -25.20 -2.61%
Palladium 612.75 -16.00 -2.54%
S&P 500 2,099.20 -0.73 -0.03%
Dow 17,730.48 -179.85 -1.00%
Dow in GOLD $s 336.91 -3.51 -1.03%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.30 -0.17 -1.03%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,229.75 11.02 0.90%
US Dollar Index 99.26 1.21 1.23%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,091.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,120.66 1,129.39 1,129.39
1/2 AE 0.50 556.00 575.61 1,151.22
1/4 AE 0.25 280.73 293.26 1,173.04
1/10 AE 0.10 114.47 119.49 1,194.86
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,062.11 1,071.11 1,092.74
British sovereign 0.24 258.79 271.79 1,154.61
French 20 franc 0.19 205.25 209.25 1,120.81
Krugerrand 1.00 1,103.20 1,113.20 1,113.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,101.20 1,115.20 1,115.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 627.44 572.88 1,145.76
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 278.26 291.90 1,167.58
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 115.67 118.94 1,189.41
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,307.66 1,318.66 1,093.69
.9999 bar 1.00 1,095.02 1,103.20 1,103.20
SPOT SILVER: 14.54      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,715.28 12,145.28 16.99
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,096.08 4,246.08 14.39
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,478.50 1,503.50 15.04
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 146.85 151.85 15.19
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.64 15.10 15.10
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.04 17.54 17.54
SPOT PLATINUM: 939.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 954.60 984.60 984.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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