The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 10 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Today was one of those days the news forgot to show up, so nothing happened. Well, millions of Americans did the really important things -- got up to do their duty, kissed spouse & children, worked all day faithfully -- but nobody but me is much impressed by that.

Stocks spent most of the day underwater but finally about 2:30 found "sponsorship" to boost them above the unchanged line. Dow added an infinitesimal 27.73 to close 17,758.21, while the S&P500 gained 3.14 (0.15%) to 2,081.72. Get out the writin' paper & write home to Mama!

Yet here, dear friends, is a hopeful sign, just one chirp from one sparrow on one lonely limb. The Dow in Gold hit 16.45 troy oz, right at that 16.50 July high and turnaround, and it turned around. Y'all heard me, in the teeth of gold's sorry performance, the Dow in Gold turned DOWN at that old high. Chirp on, sweet sparrow, chirp on! Chirp louder, cause silver hasn't heard you Chart is here, and here, Remember we sometimes see turnarounds in the Dow in Gold or Silver before the actual price reversals.

US dollar index scarfed up 31 basis points (0.32%) today for a 99.39 close. We'll find out tomorrow whether the dollar is of a mind to climb higher immediately. Fed apparatchiki are still firing that blarney cannon about raising interest rates. Sure, sure, & suck all the money out of all the rest of the world into the United States & precipitate a Depression even greater than the Great Depression. Come on, Feddists! I have faith in y'all. I know y'all really are stupid enough to do it, and without even gruntin'.

That Gold! What a winning streak! Added thirty cents yesterday, & ANOTHER thirty cents today. Hot zig. Ended Comex at $1,088.20. Silver lost 5.8 more cents to close 1435.6c, right at the bottom of that summer trading range.

First wonder is that the Gold/Silver Ratio, today at 75.801, has not risen like a rocket on this long-lived silver & gold weakness. Normally I would expect that, but it appeareth not. Why not?

Except for those miraculous instantaneous drops, gold is flatlining. Trading range today was only $10.00. Somebody stick a mirror under gold's nose to see if it's still breathing. Been dropping ten days now, & that alone argues it ought to rally just for a little relief. None appeareth. I can look at the chart and see intraday lows both Friday & today, but am I bold enough -- fool enough -- to that a double bottom? Not yet.

Silver's low today hit 1427c. That marked a lower V-bottom than anything yet for this move, but no other hint of life.

Back in 2001, silver's bottom at 401c [sic] came in November. Seasonally, lows tend to take place in November for silver & gold, leading into rallies into year end. Take 2014 as a case in point. Knowing that, & that gold and silver's strongest, most determined, & most powerful allies are the Federal Reserve & the US government, spending & printing, printing & spending, I can wait. I know my government & my central bank won't let me down.

By the way, did y'all know that there is not one documented case in history of a banker drowning in his own sweat? If I'm lying, I'm dying.

On 10 November 1801 my own state of Tennessee outlawed duelling. I tell y'all, that was a big mistake. Nothing improves a man's manners like knowing folks will challenge him to a duel for rudeness. Nothing

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
10-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,088.20 0.60 0.06%
Silver, $/oz 14.36 -0.06 -0.40%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.801 0.347 0.46%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0001 -0.46%
Platinum 899.50 -25.20 -2.73%
Palladium 597.60 -16.00 -2.61%
S&P 500 2,081.72 3.14 0.15%
Dow 17,758.21 27.73 0.16%
Dow in GOLD $s 337.34 0.34 0.10%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.32 0.02 0.10%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,236.99 6.90 0.56%
US Dollar Index 99.26 1.21 1.23%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,089.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,121.20 1,127.74 1,127.74
1/2 AE 0.50 555.19 574.76 1,149.53
1/4 AE 0.25 280.31 292.83 1,171.32
1/10 AE 0.10 114.30 119.31 1,193.11
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,060.55 1,069.55 1,091.15
British sovereign 0.24 258.42 271.42 1,153.00
French 20 franc 0.19 204.95 208.95 1,119.20
Krugerrand 1.00 1,102.68 1,112.68 1,112.68
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,099.60 1,113.60 1,113.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 626.52 572.04 1,144.08
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 277.85 291.47 1,165.87
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 115.50 118.77 1,187.66
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,305.74 1,316.74 1,092.10
.9999 bar 1.00 1,093.41 1,101.60 1,101.60
SPOT SILVER: 14.40      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,615.18 12,045.18 16.85
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,054.78 4,204.78 14.25
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,464.50 1,489.50 14.90
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 145.45 150.45 15.05
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.50 14.96 14.96
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.90 17.40 17.40
SPOT PLATINUM: 899.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 914.50 944.50 944.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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