The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 19 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Whoo! We needed something to get our blood moving again. I bet y'all want to hear about silver & gold first, but jes' be patient. I'll get there.

Stocks were markedly less jubilant today than yesterday. Fact of the business is, they performed miserably. Four times the Dow & S&P500 tried to pierce the unchanged line, four times they were driven back. With a mid-day high, looks awfully toppy. This schizophrenic on again, off again belongs to the volatility of a trend-changing market. Bulls remain hopeful & buy on any spur, but can't make good that progress, so the sellers win again.

Dow lost 4.41 today to 17,732.75. Not much, but symbolic. S&P500 lost 2.34 (0.11%) to 2,081.24.

Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver both hooked down today and appear -- O, mercy! -- appear to have turned down. If so, that leaves behind double tops in both, which, although painful to live through, puts a firm cap on stocks' advance against metals since 2011.

Lo, the US dollar index topped yesterday, according to the 5 day chart. Then on the longer term chart it fell through the uptrend line, which pretty well locks in the break. Careful, I'm not saying it has reversed its longer term, only reversed for a correction. It would have to fall below 96.50 to bring that longer term upward trend into question.

Dollar index fell 69 basis points (0.7%) to 99.05. Euro took that opportunity to sneak up 0.68% to $1.0734. Yen rose 0.63% to 81.40. Those last two remain dead broke, destined for lower things.

Today gold finally broke its losing streak, bumping up $9.20 to $1,078.00 on the Comex. Silver leapt 16.2 cents to 1424.2c, up to 1428c in the aftermarket. Cyclically both are due for a low sometime in the latter half of November.

Over Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday gold made a bowl bottom. Lip of that bowl stands about$ 1,078, through which gold passed today, then touched back to make sure. Whether this will last or not -- and we may have seen the bottom on Tuesday -- gold will rise for the next few days. Must first push through $1,100.00 to prove it has any nerve at all. Chart's at

Silver's five day chart sports an upside down head & shoulders with a head/bottom yesterday. Doesn't prove yesterday was THE bottom, only says silver will rally at least a few days. Believability and durability doesn't come until silver crosses first 1440c then 1500c. Coincidentally, the 20 DMA right now stands at 1492. So far we have a double bottom July & November with intraday lows at 1391c & 1399c. As with gold, the rate of change & full stochastics have turned up, but not yet the MACD, quite.

Gold/Silver Ratio is acting consistently with an upward reversal in metals. That is, it topped 4 days ago and has since declined. Needs now to close below the 50 & 20 DMAs, not intertwined at 74.66 & 74.51. Indicators are rolling over downward.

Today we got proof. Not a lot of proof, but sound and promising more. If you've been itching to buy, time to start. I believe those folks waiting for $750 gold and $10 silver will be proven wrong, but mercy! What in the world do I know? I ain't no more than a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, so far back in the woods we have to order sunlight from Sears & Roebuck.

On 19 November 1861 Julia Ward Howe, wife of Samuel Gridley Howe, one of the Secret Six (see Otto Scott's book) who financed northern terrorists including John Brown in Kansas & Virginia, wrote "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" calling for the blood & death of millions of Southerners. If y'all wonder why I won't sing this hateful song, just read it dispassionately some time, and imagine it's your people she's talking about killing. I pass over in silence as too obvious for comment the question of how a song calling for terrorism & murder qualifies as a "hymn."

On 19 November 1863 Abraham Lincoln delivered his Gettysburg Address, having plagiarized the closing line from John Wycliffe's foreword to his 1382 Bible translation, "This Bible is for the government of the people, for the people, and by the people."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
19-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,078.00 9.20 0.86%
Silver, $/oz 14.24 0.16 1.15%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.692 -0.217 -0.29%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0000 0.29%
Platinum 857.60 10.10 1.19%
Palladium 538.05 8.95 1.69%
S&P 500 2,081.24 2.34 0.11%
Dow 17,732.75 -4.41 -0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s 340.04 -3.01 -0.88%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.45 -0.15 -0.88%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,245.10 -14.64 -1.16%
US Dollar Index 99.05 -0.69 -0.69%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,081.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,111.11 1,119.77 1,119.77
1/2 AE 0.50 551.26 570.70 1,141.40
1/4 AE 0.25 278.33 290.76 1,163.04
1/10 AE 0.10 113.49 118.47 1,184.68
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,051.99 1,060.99 1,082.43
British sovereign 0.24 256.59 269.59 1,145.24
French 20 franc 0.19 203.51 207.51 1,111.44
Krugerrand 1.00 1,098.13 1,108.13 1,108.13
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,091.90 1,105.90 1,105.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 622.09 568.00 1,136.00
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 275.88 289.41 1,157.63
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 114.68 117.93 1,179.27
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,296.51 1,307.51 1,084.44
.9999 bar 1.00 1,085.69 1,093.90 1,093.90
SPOT SILVER: 14.28      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,890.45 12,320.45 17.23
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,020.85 4,170.85 14.14
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,453.00 1,478.00 14.78
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 144.30 149.30 14.93
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.38 14.84 14.84
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.78 17.03 17.03
SPOT PLATINUM: 857.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 872.60 902.60 902.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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