The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 25 November a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

I have a favor to ask of y'all. I have been writing these commentaries since Al Gore invented the internet, in fact, since the internet consisted of orange juice cans connected by kite string. However, I'm not sure what y'all want, or how often you want it. It would really help me if y'all would take the short survey at Three minutes is all.

This is not a trick to get your email address so we can send you thousands of emails selling you weight-loss programs or Russian brides. I promise. Nobody but The Moneychanger will see your emails or have access to your address.

More, taking the survey gets you a chance to win signed copies of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole Volumes 1 & 2, Heiland, and The Greening. One winner will receive all four books, with a drawing on 11 December 2015.

Many thanks in advance for your generous help & all your kindnesses.

Markets are dead in the water ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. floor traders might try some tricks in Friday's thin markets, but that won't stick, up or down.

Stocks sawed back and forth without gain. S&P500 lost 0.27 to 2,088.87 while the Dow Industrials gained 1.2 to 17,813.39. No movement, no significance.

US dollar index climbed to a new intraday high for the move since October at 100.23, & a new high close at 99.82, up 24 basis points. These are marginal moves, and clearly for now the dollar is stalled. Vulnerable to a sudden drop if spooked. What might spook it I couldn't say, if Turkey, arguably a surrogate for the US, shooting down a Russian warplane won't do the job, & it hasn't. It appears, by the way, that Obama & Company are in fact stupid enough to embroil the whole world in a war. Better pray they wise up fast.

Euro lost 0.25% to $1.0618. Yen lost 0.14 to 81.48. Just looking at their charts makes you want to reach for the wastebasket and puke.

Here's a strange omen, flashing big and bright across the firmament. Oil (WTIC) today closed above its 20 day moving average, having fallen down out of its trading range and trading back up into it. Closed up 4.08% at $44.39. Chart is here,

Copper, too, has bounced off $2.00. It's RSI is so oversold that it looks like a big old black and blue punk knot on somebody's pumpkin head.

I mention these two inflation markets because most everybody in the world, including ventral bankers & their economists, who don't know an economy from Adam's off ox, expects what they call "deflation" and lower commodity prices. What if the market surprises everybody? What if we are watching now not only bottoms in silver & gold, but in other commodities as well? No turnaround has appeared yet, just these little clouds the size of a man's hand on the horizon. One thing that might tip it over is the Fed failing to raise rates in December. That would pull the plug out of the dollar's heel and send commodities flying.

On Comex silver & gold barely breathed. Silver closed down 1/10 cent at 1415.8c and gold lost $3.80 to $1,070. Silver made another low at 1399c.

You'll see silver's chart here MACD is turning up, along with Rate of Change and full stochastics. RSI is plumb oversold, and has been since 9 November. Ripe to turn around. Gold's RSI is not quite as oversold, but other indicators are also turning up.

Five day/15 minute charts went a little lower than I wanted, but did not violate the lows seen on Monday. Whoa! So we have a bottom, followed by higher highs and a higher low, an embryonic uptrend.

I bought silver yesterday and a little gold today. I may end up choking on it, but at least I eat my own cooking.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day. I am always bemused by atheists & agnostics who say they are "thankful." To whom, exactly? Lady Luck? The grocery store? There's just a lot of things about people I flat don't get.

On 25 November 1491 began the siege of Granada, the last Moorish stronghold in Spain. When it fell in 1492 to the Spanish, they had completed a war to take back their country lasting about 700 years. It also freed Isabella's attention sufficiently to allow her later that year to back an Italian explorer, Christopher Columbus, who wanted to sail west to the Orient.

May you all enjoy a blessed Thanksgiving & a grateful heart for all God's mercies.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Nov-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,070.00 -3.80 -0.35%
Silver, $/oz 14.16 -0.00 -0.01%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.576 -0.263 -0.35%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0000 0.35%
Platinum 842.50 2.00 0.24%
Palladium 551.30 9.80 1.81%
S&P 500 2,088.87 -0.27 -0.01%
Dow 17,813.39 1.20 0.01%
Dow in GOLD $s 344.14 1.24 0.36%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.65 0.06 0.36%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,258.19 0.17 0.01%
US Dollar Index 99.82 0.24 0.24%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,070.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,101.24 1,107.66 1,107.66
1/2 AE 0.50 545.29 564.53 1,129.06
1/4 AE 0.25 275.32 287.62 1,150.47
1/10 AE 0.10 112.27 117.19 1,171.87
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,041.67 1,050.67 1,071.89
British sovereign 0.24 253.81 266.81 1,133.45
French 20 franc 0.19 201.30 205.30 1,099.65
Krugerrand 1.00 1,084.11 1,094.11 1,094.11
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,080.20 1,094.20 1,094.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 615.37 561.86 1,123.71
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 272.90 286.28 1,145.11
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 113.44 116.65 1,166.52
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,282.49 1,293.49 1,072.81
.9999 bar 1.00 1,073.95 1,082.20 1,082.20
SPOT SILVER: 14.17      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,668.80 12,098.80 16.92
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 3,988.40 4,138.40 14.03
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,442.00 1,467.00 14.67
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 143.20 148.20 14.82
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.27 14.73 14.73
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.67 16.92 16.92
SPOT PLATINUM: 842.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 857.50 887.50 887.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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