The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 7 December a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Some folks take a long time to catch on. Bernard O'Bama, for instance, couldn't figure out whether the 14 murders in San Bernardino were terrorist acts until somebody told him so. Maybe he though those were Irish Republican Army terrorists? Did they leave Guinness bottles littering the site?

Where have all the adults gone?

Continuing its volatility pattern, the Dow today fell back 117.12 (0.66%) to 17,730.51. S&P500 gave back 14.62 (0.7%) to 2,077.07.

Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver hooked up today, just a tee-tiny hook up, dancing around the 20 DMA, but not enough to make me doubt for a New York second that they topped on 27 November & 2 December. Y'all go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc and http://schrts.co/ohwLZP

The US dollar index rose 35 basis points (0.35%) today to 98.69, but this is like watching a broken-legged horse struggling to rise. The thrashing around does NOT mean he's okay. Likewise the US dollar index needs to penetrate and close above the March high at 100.70 to disprove my conclusion that its rally has been broken. Chart's at http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil closed at a new low for the decline that began in June, $37.65. That's its lowest since February 2009. Tis possible that it is making a double bottom with the $37.75 August low. It won't keep us waiting long to find out. This comes, by the way, on the heels of OPEC's Friday decision not to limit production, rotten news for high cost US producers.

The Gold/Bank Stock Index spread has shot up and down in lunatic trading since July, trading I associate with markets trying to swallow a huge trend change. The spread rises when confidence in gold is growing & confidence in the financial system is dwindling, and falls when financial system confidence is growing. Today it punched through its 20 DMA, first tripwire for a trend change, but didn't quite close up there. Appears to have double bottomed with a July low at 13.50 and Friday's low at 13.771. Assuming it continues to rise, this is about the best news gold could get, short of abolishing the Fed and European Central Bank. http://schrts.co/iof4Ar

Both silver & gold fell back today, no surprise after a blistering Friday. Comex gold dropped $8.10 to $1,076.40 while silver sliced off 19.8 cents to 1430.7c. This is not nearly lethal, more like trivial. Both remain above their 20 day moving averages. Both are set up for hearty rallies, and both may have finally put a period to the post-2011 bear phase with lows last Thursday.

Gold has been extremely oversold, so is due for an extreme snapback. The 200 day moving average lies overhead about $1,152, flowing together with the downtrend line from the October 2012 high, same lines that Gold challenged in October without success. This time should be different, as every indicator favors gold rallying.

Silver isn't as well positioned against its moving averages. The 200 day hovers above at 1557c, far below the downtrend line from 2011's high.

Whether we've seen the ultimate lows or not, both metals have a meaty rally just ahead. I've already gotten as long as I could stand.

SPECIAL OFFER: 1/10 oz. gold American Eagles

Today I bought a large lot of one-tenth ounce gold American Eagles waaaay bigger than I want to keep. I am, therefore, powerfully motivated to price them to move.

Cheapest I could find these elsewhere on the Internet was $125.20 or 16.5% over their gold content. But whoa! I am not running a museum, and I want to say good-bye to these coins, so that's your golden opportunity. I will sell them at $120.75 or 12.2% over their gold value. One lot is Twenty (20) coins at $120.75 each for a subtotal of $2,415.00 plus $35.00 shipping for a grand total of $2,450.00 per lot. These are random dates, and my choice of dates. This is the smallest denomination gold coin in a modern issue.

I have thirty-three lots only, and this ridiculous price applies to those coins only. After that, it's only a dim memory. You may order multiple lots.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
7-Dec-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,076.40 -8.10 -0.75%
Silver, $/oz 14.31 -0.20 -1.37%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.236 0.469 0.63%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 -0.0001 -0.62%
Platinum 863.10 -17.40 -1.98%
Palladium 554.45 -11.75 -2.08%
S&P 500 2,077.07 -14.62 -0.70%
Dow 17,730.51 -117.12 -0.66%
Dow in GOLD $s 340.51 0.31 0.09%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.47 0.02 0.09%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,239.29 8.84 0.72%
US Dollar Index 98.69 0.35 0.36%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,072.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,102.53 1,110.04 1,110.04
1/2 AE 0.50 546.47 565.74 1,131.49
1/4 AE 0.25 275.91 288.23 1,152.94
1/10 AE 0.10 112.51 117.44 1,174.39
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,043.91 1,052.91 1,074.17
British sovereign 0.24 254.36 267.36 1,135.77
French 20 franc 0.19 201.74 205.74 1,101.97
Krugerrand 1.00 1,089.66 1,099.66 1,099.66
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,082.50 1,096.50 1,096.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 616.69 563.06 1,126.13
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 273.49 286.89 1,147.58
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 113.69 116.90 1,169.03
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,285.25 1,296.25 1,075.10
.9999 bar 1.00 1,076.25 1,084.50 1,084.50
SPOT SILVER: 14.29      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,647.35 11,933.35 16.69
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,023.80 4,173.80 14.15
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,454.00 1,479.00 14.79
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 144.40 149.40 14.94
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.39 14.85 14.85
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.79 17.04 17.04
SPOT PLATINUM: 863.10      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 878.10 908.10 908.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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