The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 30 December a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive

Wall Street scanned the sky in dismay today as Santa Claus packed his rally in his sleigh, shouted to his reindeer, and lifted off into the sky, headed for the much-scorned Midwest. "Sorry Christmas to all, & to all a good night!" he yelled over his shoulder. Didn't even drop off a single pair of pointy-toed Eye-talian shoes off for the waiting Wall Streeters.

Dow melted yesterday at 17,750 (2,082.50 for the S&P500), traded sideways most of today, then melted again about 3:30, as if everybody suddenly sold and ran off the trading floor. Dow puked back 117.11 (0.66%) to close at 17,603.87 and the S&P500 scraped off 15.0 (0.72%) to end at 2,063.36.

If they do these things in the green tree, what will they do in the dry? If the Santa Claus rally stumbles like this, what happens when Icy Winter arriveth next week? Both indices are near to closing 2015 lower than 2014. 2014's closes were 17,823.07 and 2,058.90. Tomorrow will tell.

Just in case I have been so mealy-mouthed y'all couldn't catch my meaning, I expect 2016 to be a very bad year for stocks, beginning in January. That augurs in turn the Fed panicking & belching out new torrents of Quantitative Easing, which don't leave the dollar looking too perky, neither. Aww, pay me no mind, I'm jes' a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee (but I don't believe in no Santy Claus).

Speaking of the scurvy US dollar index (I reckon I have to, though it's a grief to a fastidious mind), it rose 12 big basis points today (0.12%) to 98.29. It's still trapped below the downtrend line, and the market has gone so stagnant hat it has a blue sheen on it and the 20 & 50 day moving averages have intertwined. To regain momentum for a rally it must close above 100.70, which looks almost as likely as a Poland China sow learning the foxtrot. See it here, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Trend in force remains in force until contradicted. It would take a close north of 98.50 to begin to turn the dollar index up. Only hints it might turn up are in the Rate of Change and full stochastics, but they remain hushed hints. Should the dollar break its 200 dma at 96.82, mass confusion would break out. Not that we have much less than that already.

Euro rose a token 0.1% today to 1.0932, barely above the 20 DMA but in no haste to rise higher. No ambition. Yen can't rally either. Lost 0.8% today to 82.96 in a market that has done little for the past week.

Oil (WTIC) lost 1.34% to $36.83/barrel. Barely below its 20 DMA. Keeps refusing to break down. Maybe 2016 will be the year for commodities to turn up? WTIC chart's at http://schrts.co/KvfGnd

Another inflation market, Copper, bottomed back in November at $2.00 and has traded sideways since. What's at stake? It's hanging over a cliff, & down at the bottom is the 2009 low at $1.25. If copper doesn't hold on here, it's looking at a long fall. So why is it holding on? http://schrts.co/02nSGN

Today Silver closed the Comex 8.5¢ lower at 1381.4¢. Gold backed down $8.20 to $1,060.10.

Silver & gold have spent this week regurgitating all the gains of Christmas week. No doubt lots of this arises from tax loss selling. Good side is that it merely offers us an opportunity to buy a little lower.

In spite of the last two days golds indicators mostly point up. Don't bother writing to tell me I'm a miscreant and a moron, I'm just reporting the facts, and the facts speak for higher gold. However, gold is only spinnin' tires (we say "tahrs") and throwin' mud until it climbs over that fence at $1,088 and commences running up the road.

Gold has made a bottomy-looking sort of upside-down head & shoulders formation, or reversal zone. Still, that needs confirmation by rising above $1,088. Gold chart is here, http://schrts.co/gcEdcQ

Silver's chart resembles gold's, but looks more like an upside-down H&S. Closed below its 20 DMA today. Behold, the chart, http://schrts.co/FnUsCM

SUMMARY: 2016 will be the year for gold and silver & the year stocks fall into the abyss, along with the Fed's cockamamie Keynesian schemes. I sure hope y'all aren't in debt, cause 2016 is liable to pull big debtors through a knothole. Might ought to order your house.

SPECIAL OFFER YEAR END INVENTORY CLEAN-OUT

2015 is ending and I'd like to clean up around here, so I am pricing these things so they will sprout wings and fly into your hands. Spot gold basis is $1,060.50, spot silver $13.88.

LOT NO. 1, GOLD BRITISH SOVEREIGN

Thanks to the British empire's size and longevity, the British sovereign (one pound sterling) is the most common and well-recognized gold coin in the world. Minted from 1818 to today, they are 22 karat (91-2/3% pure gold) containing 0.2354 troy ounce fine gold. These are mildly circulated to about uncirculated coins, my choice of types: Jubilee Head Victoria, Veiled Head Victoria, Edward VII, George V, or even Elizabeth I. All have the same reverse, St. George slaying the dragon by Pistrucci (1818), with an obverse of the reigning sovereign.

One lot is Ten (10) sovereigns at $266 each for a total of $2,660.00 plus $35 shipping, a grand total of $2,695.00 for 2.3540 troy ounces fine gold (6.6% premium). I have 21 lots only, so when they're spoken for, I have no more at that price. You may order multiple lots, of course.

LOT No. 2, MIXED GOLD

Here's the duke's mixture: One gold one ounce Maple Leaf for $1,112.00; One gold one ounce American Eagle slightly discolored around edges, priced same as a Krugerrand at $1,120.25; Three (3) .9999 one oz. gold bars, 1 Credit Suisse sealed with card, one P.A.M.P. sealed with card, one Credit Suisse without card, $1,112.00 each or three for $3,336.00; and one (1) lone Netherlands TWO ducat minted in 1989 after the 1625 pattern (K&M#97, it's 98.3% pure gold or 23.6 karat containing 0.2209 troy ounce), proof in hard plastic container, $251.00 each. Total 5.2209 oz for $5,819.25 equals a 5.1% premium over gold. Add to $5,819.25 $35 for shipping for a grand total of $5,854.25.

A lot like this one's made in heaven, so I have only one.

LOT No. 3, US 90% SILVER SURVIVAL COIN

US 90% silver coin is the ultimate survival silver with the smallest recognizable pieces available anywhere in the world. Fourteen dimes ($1.40 face value) contain one troy ounce fine silver -- fourteen transactions to the ounce. I've put together $210.00 face value lots (contains 150.15 troy ounces fine silver). I know the 90% coin has a high premium right now, that's why I'm offering these small lots so you can buy just a leetle for peace of mind's sake while spot silver is low. I think I'm the lowest priced seller in the country, but can't guarantee that.

One lot of $210.00 face value (2100 dimes, 840 quarters, or 420 halves), my choice of denomination, at $11.975 per dollar face value comes to $2,514.75 plus $35 shipping brings the grand total to $2,549.75. I have 14 lots.

Special Conditions:

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order One of Lot 2, but if not available will take One of Lot 2" or "I want four of Lot 1, but will take fewer if not available."

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your email.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimums above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. Surprisingly, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You MUST send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Dec-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,060.10 -8.20 -0.77%
Silver, $/oz 13.81 -0.09 -0.61%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.741 -0.121 -0.16%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 0.0000 0.16%
Platinum 871.10 -20.10 -2.26%
Palladium 547.75 -7.65 -1.38%
S&P 500 2,063.36 -15.00 -0.72%
Dow 17,603.87 -117.11 -0.66%
Dow in GOLD $s 343.27 0.37 0.11%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.61 0.02 0.11%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,274.35 -0.63 -0.05%
US Dollar Index 98.29 0.12 0.12%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,061.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,090.47 1,105.33 1,105.33
1/2 AE 0.50 541.01 560.10 1,120.20
1/4 AE 0.25 273.16 285.36 1,141.44
1/10 AE 0.10 111.38 116.27 1,162.67
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,031.41 1,040.41 1,061.43
British sovereign 0.24 251.82 264.82 1,124.99
French 20 franc 0.19 199.72 203.72 1,091.19
Krugerrand 1.00 1,075.60 1,085.60 1,085.60
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,071.80 1,085.80 1,085.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 610.54 557.45 1,114.89
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 270.76 284.03 1,136.13
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 112.55 115.74 1,157.36
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,271.15 1,282.15 1,063.40
.9999 bar 1.00 1,065.52 1,073.80 1,073.80
SPOT SILVER: 13.91      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,125.40 11,482.90 16.06
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 3,985.45 4,147.45 14.06
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,416.00 1,441.00 14.41
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 140.60 145.60 14.56
1 oz .999 round 1.00 14.01 14.47 14.47
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.41 16.66 16.66
SPOT PLATINUM: 871.10      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 886.10 916.10 916.10
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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