The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Thursday, 31 December a.d. 2015 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,556.50 1,377.50 -179.00 -11.5
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,183.90 1,060.30 -123.60 -10.4
Gold/silver ratio 76.062 76.973 0.911 1.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0131 0.0130 -0.0002 -1.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 311.20 339.72 28.52 9.2
Dow in gold ounces 15.05 16.43 1.38 9.2
Dow in Silver ounces 1,145.07 1,264.97 119.90 10.5
Dow Industrials 17,823.07 17,425.03 -398.04 -2.2
S&P500 2,058.90 2,043.94 -14.96 -0.7
US dollar index 90.62 98.70 8.08 8.9
Platinum 1,208.90 891.70 -317.20 -26.2
Palladium 798.40 560.80 -237.60 -29.8

Above is the scorecard for the year, not the week, and a brutal year it has been for silver and gold, down 11.5% and 10.4%. Could have been worse: could have been platinum, off 26.2%, or palladium, off 29.8%. Whoops. Could have been stocks, which closed LOWER this year. Only the dollar gained, 8.9%.

Stocks tried to rally, but were cooked by 1:00 p.m. Dow lost 178.84 (1.02%) while the S&P500 backed up 19.42 (1.04%). Y'all can expect more of the same next year, more turmoil, more volatility, and MUCH more downside. Both indices start 2016 behind the 8-ball, since both closed today below their 200 day moving average. Not even Wall Street touts can make that look good.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver appear to have confirmed downtrends today, rolling over, if ever so slightly. Dow in silver needs to fall beneath its 20 DMA first, to $1,246.57 ounces from its present 1,268.75. Dow in gold crosses its 20 DMA at 16.40 oz, not far from today's 16.43 close. Charts appear here: and

If I'm not merely deceiving myself these charts are confirming what I expect from the fundamentals, namely, much lower stock prices and higher silver & gold prices in 2016.

US dollar index closed 98.70 today, up 39 basis points and above the downtrend line. Well, maybe that's broken out upward, and maybe that's solely the outcome of lightly attended markets in a holiday week. Behold the chart,

Fed will give rise to all sorts of conspiracy theories if it continues to stand idly by while the dollar rises, crushing American exports, and it raises rates in the teeth of a slowing economy. Somebody might even suggest that the Fed works for somebody other than America. Of course, one might answer that with Occam's Razor, viz., that the simplest explanation is the most likely one. Occam votes for blind academic stupidity, and that's a pretty cogent and comprehensive explanation for the Fed's policies, I must admit. Of course, severe chronic dyspepsia might be another.

Silver and gold flatlined today. On Comex silver lost 3.9¢ to 1377.5¢. Gold moved up a mighty 20¢ to 1,060.30 on a roughly $4.00 trading range. Comex wasted electricity even turning on the lights today.

Both silver & gold are sketching out consolidations that will probably prove to be bottoms, but since a (down)trend in force remains in force until gainsaid, we need a sign. A neon sign. A gold close above $1,088 and silver above 1440¢.

I note with passing interest that the Gold/Silver ratio didn't move much at year-end, despite sizeable moves during the year. The ratio rose 1.2% from 76.062 to 76.973. That's an argument for metals turning up.

On 31 December 1862 US president Abraham Lincoln signed an act admitting West Virginia to the Union. Odd, that a man claiming to fight secession would welcome a state that had seceded from another state. Reckon it depended on whom you were seceding from.

If you're a yankee you go to New York's Times Square to watch the ball drop, signaling the death of the old year and birth of the new year. Well, in the South we've got more imagination than dropping a plain old ball: we drop a pickle to mark the New Year. If you live near Mt. Olive, North Carolina, you can go see the Pickle Drop at If I'm lyin', I'm dyin'.

In German-speaking lands on New Year's Eve they wish each other, "Guten Rutsch ins neue Jahr!" Good slide into the New Year!

Y'all do your New Year sliding at home. It's safer that way.

May God bless you and yours in 2016 and always with mercy, peace, and truth!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
31-Dec-15 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,060.30 0.20 0.0
Silver, $/oz 13.78 -0.04 -0.3
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.973 0.017 0.0
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 -0.0000 -0.3
Platinum 891.70 20.06 2.3
Palladium 560.80 13.05 2.4
S&P 500 2,043.94 -19.42 -0.9
Dow 17,425.03 -178.84 -1.0
Dow in GOLD $s 339.72 -3.52 -1.0
Dow in GOLD oz 16.43 -0.17 -1.0
Dow in SILVER oz 1,264.97 -9.37 -0.7
US Dollar Index 98.70 0.39 0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,058.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,087.08 1,101.90 1,101.90
1/2 AE 0.50 539.33 558.36 1,116.72
1/4 AE 0.25 272.31 284.47 1,137.89
1/10 AE 0.10 111.04 115.91 1,159.06
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,030.28 1,039.28 1,060.27
British sovereign 0.24 251.04 264.04 1,121.66
French 20 franc 0.19 199.10 203.10 1,087.86
Krugerrand 1.00 1,072.26 1,082.26 1,082.26
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,068.50 1,082.50 1,082.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 608.64 555.71 1,111.43
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 269.92 283.15 1,132.60
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 112.20 115.38 1,153.77
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,267.19 1,278.19 1,060.13
.9999 bar 1.00 1,062.20 1,070.50 1,070.50
SPOT SILVER: 13.78      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,068.20 11,425.70 15.98
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 3,947.10 4,109.10 13.93
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,403.00 1,428.00 14.28
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 139.30 144.30 14.43
1 oz .999 round 1.00 13.88 14.34 14.34
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 15.28 16.53 16.53
SPOT PLATINUM: 891.70      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 906.70 936.70 936.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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