Oftimes rudimentary comparisons sing a loud tune. For instance, ponder these movements of the first four trading days of 2016:
Dow Industrials, down 910.93 or 5.2%
S&500, down 100.85 or 4.9%
Dow Transports, down 513.32 or 6.8%
Russell 2000, down 71.32 or 6.3%
Wilshire 5000, down 1,078.33 or 5.1%
Nasdaq Composite, down 317.98 or 6.4%
Nasdaq 100, down 287.55 or 6.3%
Gold up $47.40 or 4.5%
Silver up 56 or 4.1%
Platinum down $15.30 or 1.7%
Palladium down $67.80 or 12.1%
US dollar index, down 0.38 or 0.4%
Res ipsa loquitur -- the thing speaks for itself, & loudly.
Merciful heavens, I feel like a tomcat in a tuna-fish processing plant. There's so much good stuff lying around I just don't know where to start.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has suffered its worst four-day year's start on record, down 5.2%. Today the low slid 442.88 (2.6%) but the Dow recovered to down "only" 392.41 or 2.32%, closing at 16,514.10. S&P500 dove 47.17 or 2.37% to 1,943.09, 100 points lower than it ended 2015.
But y'all don't listen to me, a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee. Y'all listen to that bril-yunt academishun-ess, Janet Yellen, and she'll explain to you how the US economy is jes' a-boomin'. My goodness, what WOULD we do without a central bank to stabilize the economy?
Shanghai stock exchange suffered its shortest trading day in history today as, following Tuesday's pattern, it dropped another 7%. This market is even more tightly government-controlled than the US stock market (they'll make you disappear if you short stocks) that not much point exists in talking about it, other than as a symptom of stocks & economies crumbling around the globe. Chart's at http://schrts.co/8OEA1P
But I am interested in talking about the S&P500/Russell 2000 spread, the S&P500 divided by the Russell 2000. As bull markets age, small cap stocks (Russell 2000) tend to outperform large cap (S&P500). They also trend to evaporate faster after a market tops. $SPX:$RUT trended roughly down (the spread is a fraction with the $SPX as the numerator & $RUT as the denominator) from 2009 forward. In March 2014 the spread turned up and has trended that way ever since. You can see it here, http://schrts.co/VIMIiE This augurs much lower prices for all stocks. And by the way, the Dow Transports have broken down to 6,995.39 today, also signaling lower prices for stocks generally. Nasdaq 100 & Nasdaq Comp have both been gapping down.
Did I forget to mention the Dow in Gold & Silver? Durn.
Dow in Gold has crumbled like feta cheese, down from 16.60 ounces of 30 December 2015 to 15.46 oz today, down 6.9%. 200 Day Moving Average stands nearby at 15.38 oz, ready to signal the COLOSSAL fall.
Dow in silver has pierced its 20 & 50 DMAs and today also the uptrend line from August 2013. Today it made a lower low than Augusts, closing at 1,208.04 oz, down 4.8% from 30 December. Both have made their tops and changed trend to downward, and need only close below their 200 DMAs to confirm finally.
Both the Dow Industrials & S&P500 closed way below the lip of that upside-down bowl that triggered that August plunge. Volume is rising.
For reasons not yet clear, the US Dollar index plumb passed out today, losing 98 basis points (0.99%) to 98.32, closing below its 20 & 50 DMA's. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT It seems awfully reluctant to get to that Kryptonite resistance at 100.70. A close below 97.83 speeds the fall. Looks wrecked to me.
Euro closed back up inside its trading range today. It rose 1.4% to $1.0932. Has traded into an even-sided triangle but not yet broken out. China's troubles have sent the Yen gapping, leaping, and flying, above the 11 month trading range & at its highest price since August, 85.01, up 0.8% today. Since 'tis in full rally mode, y'all can expect the Nice Government Men to knock it in the head any time. http://schrts.co/Oxryn9
Yesterday something strange happened with the white metals, platinum & palladium. While gold rose, platinum lost $21.90 or 2.5% & palladium collapsed $51.35 (9.6%). Media says palladium collapsed on Chinese economic prospects.
Gold rose another $15.80 or 1.5% today to end Comex at $1,107.70. This came atop yesterday's $13.50 (1.3%) rise and close above $1,088 resistance. Silver yesterday gained a silly 8/10¢ and today added 37.8¢ (2.7%) to 1433.5¢
'Twas gold's third try at $1,088 yesterday, and it punched through its 50DMA and $1,088 resistance like Forrest punching through Sooey Smith's lines at Brice's Crossroads. Today came the mopping up with a further $15.80 rise. Exactly the sort of trading gold needed to exhibit. Next challenge comes at $1,125. Above that lies the greater challenge, the 200 DMA at $1,140.20, running in the same stream bed as the downtrend line from the October 2012 high.
Ladies & gentlemen, this is getting' excitin'! Looks like gold has left behind an upside-down head & shoulders bottoming pattern. Look at it here, http://schrts.co/TJqAY0
Only little gnat in this fine-smelling ointment is silver's close below 1440¢ today. That ought to come tomorrow: silver closed slap on its 50 DMA. Also has completed a similar upside-down H&S. Volume is rising strongly for both silver & gold, confirming a rally. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/Zh9Lt2
What in the world are y'all waiting for? You've got the buy the breakouts. Y'all write down my words now, 2016 is the year for silver & gold. Write that down, see if I have to eat the paper later.
Just to prove that low-life, blood-sucking banking is no new invention, on 7 January 1782 the Bank of North America opened in Philadelphia. Short of any real money (specie), they tried to give their solvency credibility by hiring two men to roll bags of silver across the lobby, stash them in the dumbwaiter, unload them in the basement, then sneak them back upstairs where they would roll them across the lobby to the dumbwaiter again.
Today they pull the same trick without having to hire the muscle men. They mount the whole charade through computers, electrons, and the Federal Reserve.
Ain't technology great?
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger