The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 22 February a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Surprise, surprise! Obama's White House, reporting through a cloud of funny-smelling smoke, announced today in its Economic Report of the President that the US economy is jes' fine, jes' fine, with unemployment falling & wages rising. This is a conclusion only a government or fed economist could reach, with labor force participation still at 1978 levels. Sure, unemployment is down, because folks have dropped out of the labor force and given up on ever finding a job. But everything's still hunky-dory, if that dirty congress will jes' pass more job-killers like Obamacare & the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and reform criminal justice and train everybody to use a computer. The USA will one day have the most well-trained and educated jobless computer-jockeys in the whole wide world.

The US dollar index, an index of the exchange rate of the ridiculous simulacrum we use as money, rose 77 basis points today (0.79%) to end the day at 97.37. This makes the same sense as falling the same amount, since the US dollar has no intrinsic or convertible value in any event. Truly ranks as the greatest fraud & con game in world history.

Having explained what a US dolla rfan -- more accurately, FERN or Federal Reserve note -- I am I note that it has reached but not overcome the 20 day moving average (97.47). Nothing persuasive happens for the dollar until it closes above 98.15, the 50 DMA. Till then it is locked in a downtrend, and even then will only have begun to whisper that it will rally.

Euro remains the mirror image of the Dollar index. It fell 0.9% to $1.1029. No doubt some of that fall arose from British Prime Minister David Cameron's jockeying over the weekend to secure Britain a better deal in the EU before a British referendum on leaving it. Be ware the stakes: the EU will crumple speedily should Britain leave. That will collapse a VERY long chain of dominoes.

Yen retreated 0.22% to 88.64. Still stronger than its competitors, if "strong" is a word that can every be used in the same sentence with the name of any fiat currency.

A pox on all of 'em, with chiggers thrown in for good measure!

Stocks rallied strongly, continuing the handlocked trio movement they've been showing with the Dollar index and oil (or those have been showing with stocks). Dow augmented 1.4% (228.67 points) to 16,620.66, nor lagged the S&P500 behind, gaining 1.45% (27.72) to 1,945.50. This brings them up to resistance, and to their 50 DMAs, likely targets for failure. I won't be much surprised either by a Niagara Falls from here, or a shot up toward 17,200 (2,000). Either way, the ultimate outcome will remain the same, much lower stock prices the rest of the year, and for years to come. Hide & watch.

Higher stocks & lower silver & gold today took down the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver, as we have been expecting. Dow in gold closed at 13.73 troy oz, just cracking above the uptrend line from the 2011 low & probably doomed to stop somewhere between the 20 DMA (13.82 oz) & the 50 DMA (14.97 oz), most likely 14.75 oz.

Dow in silver is just dogging Dow in Gold's footsteps. Rose 2.54% today to 1,094.62 oz, just above the 20 DMA (1,084.21) and of course above that post-2011 trend line. Nothing cosmic, here, just standardupward correction.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil rose stoutly, up 12.35% to $33.39/barrel, gapping up through its 20 DMA on the way. It stopped at resistance about $34.50 - 33.50. Copper also jumped 1.68% to close at $2.13, but must clear $2.15 to take itself out of Rodney Dangerfield's class.

Enough volatility in gold and silver today to rattle a medieval hangman. Gold plunged $20.90 (1.7%) & silver backed off 18.9¢ (1.23%) to 1517.9¢. That didn't surprise y'all, did it? Y'all knew another leg down was possible, right?

Gold shows resistance/support at $1,180. A dip to that level will provoke mass puking in wastebaskets & squeeze victory shrieks out of Wall Street pimps. Ignore both and if you haven't already loaded up on gold, back up the truck & fill up the bed, clean to the gunwales. ANY gold bought below $1,300 will look like the work of a genius time 2016 draws to its close, let alone later years. Notice I am NOT foretelling gold will reach $1,180, only noting that it will fall further and IF it fell to that number, it would panic even the comatose. Like pruning apple trees, the purge is needed for the growth.

Silver cut into its 200 DMA (1508¢) today and touched its 20 DMA (1495¢) but closed higher, at 1517.9¢. Silver keeps on lagging, so time silver purchases off gold. When gold hits your target below, that's the trigger to buy silver. 1450¢ is possible.

My dear wife Susan had a good day with her eye today, a real improvement. Thanks again for your patient prayers for her.

On 22 February 1864 Confederate General Nathan Bedford Forrest routed a Union force three times his size at the Battle of West Point, Mississippi. He ended genocidal Union General Wm. T. Sherman's expedition toward Alabama.

On 22 February 1862 Texas Rangers won a victory for the Confederacy in the Battle of Val Verde, New Mexico.

On 22 February 1732 was born to Augustine Washington & his second wife, Mary Ball Washington, a baby they named George, at what is today Colonial Beach in Westmoreland County, Virginia. Born into the gentry, George was raised by his older half-brother, Lawrence. At age 17 he was licensed by the College of William & Mary as a surveyor, an occupation that helped him invest in land in the Shenandoah Valley. Just before the French & Indian War (1754-1758) in 1753 he was early on charged by the governor with delivering a litter to the French asking them to vacate the Ohio Valley. There he met and befriended Iroquois chiefs and secured their support for England. He distinguished himself in early fighting in Ohio, and in 1755 accompanied General Braddock on the ill-fated Braddock expedition and acquitted himself bravely in that disaster.

After the Battles of Lexington & Concord began the American Revolution in 1775, Washington appeared at congress in a military uniform. Known for his military experience, and patriotism, he was appointed General & Commander-inn-chief. Since the British later issued a royal proclamation labelling the rebels as traitors, Washington was subject to hanging if captured. In those days, patriotism didn't come cheap, nor love of liberty.

A great disciplinarian and organizer, Washington's chief virtue was refusing to admit he was whipped. Estimates vary, but probably less than 25% and sometimes less than 10% of the American population supported independence, depending on the Revolutionary Army's fortunes. A third of the population opposed the Revolution, and another third remained neutral. It's the same old story: the few patriots fought, bled, & died, and only later the non-combatants shouted hip-hip-hooray and waved flags -- after the British pulled out. Washington fought from 1775 to 1781, six long years without giving up, backed by a congress as reliable and helpful as a nest of rattlesnakes. They made his life more miserable by printing millions of unbacked paper money, the Continental Currency.

In the confusion after the War Washington participated in the Constitutional Convention of 1785. He was (I think) disgusted with the excesses of democracy the Revolution had unleashed and favored a strong central government. Most people don't realize that the constitution actually overthrew many of the self-government accomplishments of the Revolution when it overthrew the Articles of Confederation.

Washington couldn't convince Patrick Henry to support the new constitution. Henry remarked, "I smell a rat." He did, sure enough, and opposed entrusting any central government with both the power of the purse (taxation) and the power of the sword (centralized military as opposed to local militia). Washington became the first president under the new constitution, and served two terms. Very wisely, he refused a third term, and died in 1797.

n his cabinet Washington named Thomas Jefferson secretary of state and Alexander Hamilton secretary of the treasury.

From Washington's time forward American political thought can be divided into two parties, the Jeffersonian party of agrarianism and local government, and the Hamiltonian lovers of powerful central government, big business, and central banking. Today only the Hamiltonians are left in power, leaving the rest of us to root hog, or die.

In these degenerate days envious of true heroes, many have tried to debunk Washington's character. All have come away shaking their heads, beaten & unable to gainsay his iron integrity, humanity, courage, perseverance, and sincerity. He was indeed the Father of his Country.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Feb-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,209.50 -20.90 -1.70%
Silver, $/oz 15.18 -0.19 -1.23%
Gold/Silver Ratio 79.682 -0.380 -0.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0125 0.0001 0.48%
Platinum 926.80 -17.80 -1.88%
Palladium 498.85 -0.40 -0.08%
S&P 500 1,945.50 27.72 1.45%
Dow 16,620.66 228.67 1.40%
Dow in GOLD $s 284.07 8.67 3.15%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.74 0.42 3.15%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,094.98 28.35 2.66%
US Dollar Index 97.37 0.77 0.80%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,207.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,238.79 1,256.90 1,256.90
1/2 AE 0.50 615.26 636.90 1,273.81
1/4 AE 0.25 310.65 324.49 1,297.96
1/10 AE 0.10 126.67 132.21 1,322.10
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,177.58 1,186.58 1,210.54
British sovereign 0.24 286.35 299.35 1,271.68
French 20 franc 0.19 227.11 231.11 1,237.88
Krugerrand 1.00 1,220.68 1,230.68 1,230.68
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,217.40 1,231.40 1,231.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 694.26 633.89 1,267.77
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 307.89 322.98 1,291.92
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 127.98 131.61 1,316.07
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,448.36 1,459.36 1,210.39
.9999 bar 1.00 1,211.63 1,219.40 1,219.40
SPOT SILVER: 15.17      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,598.30 12,955.80 18.12
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,357.15 4,519.15 15.32
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,542.00 1,567.00 15.67
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 153.20 158.20 15.82
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.27 15.73 15.73
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.67 17.92 17.92
SPOT PLATINUM: 926.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 941.80 971.80 971.80
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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