The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 8 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Once again, gold failed to built on yesterday's gains. That's twice now, & I am keeping count. Once again, the bear flag upper boundary defeated gold.

US dollar index tangled its pinkies in its 200 DMA (intertwined with the 50) & tippy toed higher, closing just above the 97.10 200 DMA at 97.21, up a mighty 12 points (0.13%). Not enthusiastic or optimistic. The euro barely moved in closing terms, down 0.2% at $1.1012, but during the day it sought to pierce its 200 DMA at $1.1046 and failed wretchedly.

Hard to see how the euro will survive. 'Twas a rotten, unworkable Frankenstein currency to begin with, made no allowance for states that used inflation for huge swaths of their budget, and now Europe is suffering an immigrant invasion. Since the invasion suits the plans of the Insiders who run the politicians like Ferkel of Germany, the politicians won't oppose it while the people are writhing. I have not even mentioned Europe's rotten banks or sovereign debt problem. All this doth not a recipe for currency success make.

Japanese yen, sorry as it in reality is, has been the gainer from this turmoil. It rallied up to 90.05¢/Y100 (US$1=Y110.05) in February, then fell back to the 20 Day moving average, which caught it and threw it back up into the air. Today it gapped up slightly and closed 0.69% higher at 88.77¢. Count on it, this does NOT fit the plans of the Japanese Nice Government Men. They will act.

Like Superman before Kryptonite, like camellias before hard frost, like orange groves in a freeze, stocks hit those upper resistance levels today & wilted. Dow spilled 109.85 points somewhere (0.64%) to end at 16,964.10, beneath the magic 17,000. Lower, lower, lower slipped the S&P500, 22.5 lower (1.12%) to 1,979.26, waving bye-bye to 2,000. Backwards.

Dow in Gold sank again, to 13.44 oz (-0.17%) but not quite through its 20 DMA (13.41). Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver have diverged because of silver's relative weakness (high gold/silver ratio) so right now the Dow in Gold offers us a more accurate picture of the trend of stocks against metals.

Yield on the US treasury 10 year note fell 3.68% to 1.832%, sending the market's needle into "Risk Off" territory again. Oil backed off today as it tried to get through that 8 month downtrend line about $36.50. Closed just under the mark at $36.33, and that was 4.34% lower than yesterday. However, the uptrend from February remains unbroken.

Speaking of Broken, the market hit the trapdoor handle on junk bonds back when June 2015 began. From then to their low so far in mid-February, they lost 14%. They have rallied, as every broken market does from time to time, all the way back up to their breakdown point resistance. Today they dropped away from that resistance, which no coincidentally is near the 200 DMA. If this were a 1930s Tarzan movie, y'all would be hearing the drums beating out of the junk bond jungle, and you would see the safari bearers throwing down their bundles and hotfooting it home through the jungle. Bad juju in junk bond land. See for yourself,

Y'all do understand that the bond market is VASTLY larger & more important than the stock market, right?

On Comex gold ebbed $1.10 (0.9%) to $1,262.10. This came after hitting a high at $1,279, higher than yesterday's, and closed near the $1,261 low.

Silver dwindled 23.9¢ (1.53%) to 1538.4¢ Mark also that platinum, which yesterday made a new recovery high close at $1,001.50, dropped back $12.60 (1.3%) to $988.90. Palladium fell $10.70 (1.9%) to $567.20.

Platinum's move up off its January low hit resistance that has stopped every advance since last August, and it stopped this one, too. This six month chart makes all plain, Should retreat to $900 at least.

Palladium had gapped up on 1 March and yesterday gapped up again, which signals the death of the enthusiasm that sparked the move. Worse, it moved into new high territory today, then closed lower -- a lot lower by the end of the day. Back to $530 for palladium, do not pass go. Chart's here,

Gold did nothing to break the sullen bonds of gravity today. Failed to break above the top of that bear flag. Closed near the low. Calling for a correction.

Nor could silver climb higher today. Also closed at the bottom of the day's range. MACD is turning down, along with Rate of Change & RSI. Commitments of Traders are screaming correction, as they are for gold. Could reach 1440¢.

Time to rub some fur backwards and rile some folks! I wonder why so many people with otherwise sound judgment have been hypnotized by Donald Trump. Oh, I don't mean for the reasons the media is presently bemoaning -- calling him a Nazi. Maybe they're attacking Trump for another reason: they want his supporters to BELIEVE they oppose him, to make him more believable.

What optimism makes folks think that once in power Donald Trump would make good on his present promises? Things, by the way, he hasn't been vocally wild about in the past. If he's such an outsider, how did he make billions of dollars in real estate in New York, of all places? Not by refusing to play ball with Big Money, y'all can be sure.

And since Mr. Trump has specialized in big bankruptcies, what makes y'all think he will keep his word once in Washington? Why, the Potomac might be renamed the "Politician's Lethe" because once they drink those waters, they forget all their promises. Besides, how would Trump dislodge into motion the entrenched federal bureaucracy, not to mention a congress that oozes corruption like salamanders ooze slime?

Does it occur to anyone that Trump may be another False Flag, another Teddy Roosevelt/Bull Moose Party sent to split the vote and get somebody else elected?

Now don't ya'll get mad at me. I've got nobody in the USA to vote for, because I am not a communist.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
8-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,262.10 -1.10 -0.09%
Silver, $/oz 15.38 -0.24 -1.53%
Gold/Silver Ratio 82.040 1.185 1.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0122 -0.0002 -1.44%
Platinum 988.90 -12.60 -1.26%
Palladium 657.20 -10.70 -1.60%
S&P 500 1,979.26 -22.50 -1.12%
Dow 16,964.10 -109.85 -0.64%
Dow in GOLD $s 277.85 -1.56 -0.56%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.44 -0.08 -0.56%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,102.71 9.84 0.90%
US Dollar Index 97.21 -0.12 -0.12%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,261.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,290.21 1,312.91 1,312.91
1/2 AE 0.50 642.70 665.28 1,330.57
1/4 AE 0.25 324.50 338.95 1,355.79
1/10 AE 0.10 132.32 138.10 1,381.01
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,228.81 1,237.81 1,262.81
British sovereign 0.24 299.11 312.11 1,325.88
French 20 franc 0.19 237.23 241.23 1,292.08
Krugerrand 1.00 1,273.81 1,283.81 1,283.81
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,271.20 1,285.20 1,285.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 725.19 662.13 1,324.26
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 321.61 337.37 1,349.48
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.69 137.47 1,374.71
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,511.38 1,522.38 1,262.65
.9999 bar 1.00 1,265.61 1,273.20 1,273.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.36      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,480.33 12,730.33 17.80
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,411.73 4,573.73 15.50
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,560.50 1,585.50 15.86
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 155.05 160.05 16.01
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.46 15.92 15.92
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.86 18.11 18.11
SPOT PLATINUM: 988.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,003.90 1,033.90 1,033.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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