The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 15 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Markets are still flinching before the Eye of Sauron hovering over Mordor- on-the-Potomac, waiting to see what the Fed orcs will growl on Wednesday. (I hate to use the same image two days running, but it was simply too apt to pass up.)

Gold didn't do anything today on Comex that it hadn't already done yesterday in the aftermarket. Dropped $14.00 (1.13%) on Comex, playing catch up. Silver tumbled 26.3¢ (1.63%) to 1525.5¢

Hard to judge in the Shadow of Sauron whether gold & silver are strongly resisting lower prices, or fear of the Fed is keeping everyone out of the market. Either way, the FOMC's announcement Wednesday will take the lid off.

Closes today drew both silver & gold below their 20 day moving averages, first tripwire of a decline. Gold already broke down out of that bear flag yesterday.

Stocks edged down. Dow lost 15.65 (0.09%) to 17,213.48. S&P500 fell more, 9.04 or 0.45% to $2,010.60. They act like they have run out of moxie, but don't yet discount them. No telling what surprise parties the Fed might throw tomorrow. Despicable, that a nation of 350 million, some of them smart, energetic, & entrepreneurial, are held hostage to a bunch of atherosclerotic academics not competent to sell newspapers on the street.

US dollar index tried to rise today, but closed unchanged at 96.67 -- a rare occurrence. Euro is flinching, too, up 0.06% to $1.1109. BoJ's equivalent of an FOMC announcement was made today and they did nothing. Meanwhile weak US retail sales stung stock buyers, oil stumbled, and equity markets around the world sank underwater. Yen gained 0.55% to 88.37, mostly spurred by folks fleeing dollar uncertainty.

Ain't the central bank stabilizing effect great?

on 15 March 1864 the Union Red River campaign reached Alexandria, Louisiana. The campaign was pockmarked with notorious Union atrocities, including firing into crowds of civilians on Sunday.

On 15 March 1934 Henry Ford restored the $5 a day wage. At the time it was one of the highest wages in the country.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,230.40 -14.00 -1.13%
Silver, $/oz 15.26 -0.25 -1.63%
Gold/Silver Ratio 80.656 0.413 0.51%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0124 -0.0001 -0.51%
Platinum 959.30 -5.60 -0.58%
Palladium 570.40 -2.85 -0.50%
S&P 500 2,010.60 -9.04 -0.45%
Dow 17,213.48 -15.65 -0.09%
Dow in GOLD $s 289.20 2.99 1.05%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.99 0.14 1.05%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,128.38 17.40 1.57%
US Dollar Index 96.67 0.00 0.00%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,232.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,263.01 1,282.72 1,282.72
1/2 AE 0.50 627.91 649.99 1,299.97
1/4 AE 0.25 317.03 331.15 1,324.62
1/10 AE 0.10 129.28 134.93 1,349.26
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,200.56 1,209.56 1,233.99
British sovereign 0.24 292.24 305.24 1,296.67
French 20 franc 0.19 231.78 235.78 1,262.87
Krugerrand 1.00 1,244.52 1,254.52 1,254.52
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,242.20 1,256.20 1,256.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 708.52 646.91 1,293.81
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 314.21 329.61 1,318.45
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.61 134.31 1,343.10
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,476.63 1,487.63 1,233.83
.9999 bar 1.00 1,236.51 1,244.20 1,244.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.28      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,390.95 12,640.95 17.68
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,389.60 4,551.60 15.43
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,553.00 1,578.00 15.78
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 154.30 159.30 15.93
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.38 15.84 15.84
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.78 18.03 18.03
SPOT PLATINUM: 959.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 974.30 1,004.30 1,004.30
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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