No matter how fiercely the socialist public believes there is such a thing as a free lunch, there isn't. Markets don't work that way, either. Everybody can't win ALL the time. In the last week commodities have won, stocks have won, & gold and silver have won. Ain't gonna last. Only the US dollar index lost big this week, thanks to the Fed "stabilizing" the economy. Jes' like me "stabilizing" your chickenhouse with dynamite.
The US dollar added yet another waterfall & failure to its chart this week. Last week the ECB's announcement pounded the buck, this week the Fed's. What's a scrofulous currency to do?
After cascades in December, February, and two in the last fortnight, dollar index is looking like high quality merchandise from the Soviet Union. It broke 95.30 support, but caught today at an internal downtrend line reaching back to the March 2015 top. Look here, http://schrts.co/Bjf68H
Should the dollar break that trendline's support, next stop will be 92.50. That is the make-or-break dollar support. Fracture that & it freefalls to 81. However, it hasn't broken that level yet.
Dollar bounced today 32 basis points (0.34%) to 95.12, &still looks firehose-pukin' sick. I take it as a measure of central banks' rapidly shrinking credibility, worldwide.
Euro fell in a mirror image of the dollar's rise, down 0.39% to $1.1271. Is it rallying? Shucks, CAN the euro rally? Yen lost 0.15% to 89.64. Pushing on the ceiling. Can it break through to the attic?
Lookit, lookit. Stocks have actually risen into positive territory for the year. Dow is up 177.27 (1%) over the 31 Dec 2015 close and the S&P500 is a massive 5.64 (0.3%) higher. My land a' Goshen! Anybody CAN become president!
Today the Dow climbed 120.81 (0.69) to 17,602.30 & the S&P500 clambered up behind it 8.99 (0.44%) to 2,049.58.
Let us now ponder the Volatility Index ($VIX). This measures complacency (low readings) & terror (high readings) in the stock market. Here's a chart, http://schrts.co/fBq0hr When investors waxed fat, dumb, & happy back in April - August 2015, the VIX was bumping along around 11.70. Observe, though, how it shot up WAAY over 30 (high side of the range) to 53.29 back in August when stocks hit the skids. Line it up with the plot of the S&P500 in the bottom window. Then stocks rallied & investors again forgot that stocks go both up AND down. First of November VIX hit 12.80, & thereafter began the S&P500 to slide. Smugness reached another extreme toward end-December, right as stocks began a terrible six week dive.
BEHOLD! Complacency hath returned. VIX hit 14.02 today, lower than December's low. Yes, the VIX can drop more, but experience saith stocks' rally draweth soon to a close.
Also, the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver may have finished their upward corrections, which also points to stocks' rise ending. By the way, for the year the Dow in Gold has lost 14.6% and the Dow in Silver 12%, so take those new stock highs for the year with a shaker of salt. Stocks are NOT at new yearly highs againt metals.
Recall that last fall I mentioned that sometime during 2016, probably first half, commodities would begin turning up after eight years' of falling. Something like that turn-up is unfolding, but may stumble before it finds permanent footing. West Texas Intermediate Crude has been climbing along with stocks since the February low at $26.05. Today it backed off a little but still closed 41.13, up 58% off the low. Copper has rallied from $1.937 to $2.286, up 18%. CRB commodity index gapped up this week, but that might be an exhaustion gap. Oil & Copper are both about to hit their 200 day moving average, a fit location for a fall & correction.
Silver today lost 1.35% or 21.6¢ to close Comex at 1580.6¢. Gold backed down $10.70 (0.85%) ending at $1,253.80. Silver made a new intraday high for the move at 1617¢, but held not on. Never a good sign.
Pause to ponder the gold/silver ratio. Silver often finds its juice toward the end of a rally. This week it has traded down toward the bottom boundary of its uptrending channel. Look here, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy The falling ratio (silver outperforming gold) is consistent with the latter stages of a rally.
I feel goofy fighting a silver & gold rally, but can't help myself. From a longer term perspective I remain confident that both metals completed their post-2011 correction in December. Gold has broken out to the upside on both weekly & monthly charts. Silver has broken out on the weekly chart and is challenging the long term downtrend line on the monthly & daily. I don't question both have turned up for the next phase of their bull markets that began in 1999 and 2001.
But right now they have reached levels where they need a rest. Gold has traced out a bear flag, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR Volume is declining, RSI is falling, Rate of change is shrinking. In other words, its painting a picture of your car coughing & sputtering & bucking as it runs out of gas.
Silver looks strong as a horseradish martini, but the 10 month chart is BEGGING for a right shoulder. Nonetheless, silver is knocking at the door of 1600¢ resistance, and its downtrend line from April 2011. Should it break down that gate, it will run, run, run. http://schrts.co/3XPPHS
No, I am not blowing hot and cold out of both sides of my mouth, like the fellow who threw himself on the mercy of the court after he killed his parents -- because he was an orphan. I expect a correction to materialize soon in silver & gold. Y'all will know I'm wrong as a woman wearing white shoes after Labor Day IF gold closes above $1,287 and silver above 1624¢ -- together.
I wonder if any of you Canadian readers would be kind enough to recommend a reliable silver & gold dealer in Canada? I am often asked, but know no one in particular I can trust.
Seventeen years ago in July my family moved out here into rural -- very rural -- Tennessee. Part of what motivated us was building a Christian community around a church. Mercy, don't think cult. Don't think "retreat" or "giving up," think "renewal" & "preservation" in the midst of an unraveling world, plus all the delights of agrarian life. Some came, some stayed, some left. It's a big change from city living.
We're still here, & so is our little Anglican church. If you think this might be an undertaking for you, email me and I'll send you information about the area. No Wreckers need apply, please.
Once again, thanks for your prayers on my wife Susan's behalf. When I ask her now how her eye is faring, she shoots back, "Fabulous!"
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger