The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 21 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Maybe some of y'all know what's going on and can share it with this nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Markets seem frozen, hovering but unable to fly higher.

US dollar index rose a leetle today, just enough to bump up against resistance at 95.30. Can it punch through? Indicators don't favor it. Rose 18 basis points (0.19%) to 95.30. I remind y'all the dollar's position is precarious, but not fatal until it falls through 92.50 support. Till then, the jury is still out on whether the buck can resume its rally.

Euro's chart doesn't particularly inspire me, either. It jumped up on the dollar's bad luck, but traded back down into a gap and now shows all the energy of a dead pig in the sunshine. Down 0.26% today to $1.1241.

Y'all really are watching an "historical" event, namely, the dissolution of Europe and a 2000 year old civilization. Better the Holy Roman Empire by far than this chiseling, whining, self-indulgent & self-deceived indecision.

Japan is in the same boat with Europe, a demographic nightmare where shortly their aging population will be spending more for adult diapers than they do for food. Yen today lost 0.36% to 89.32. Consolidation area is either a top or breath-catching for another run higher.

Stocks wanted to fall today, and by 11:00 were down 50 points. Friends came in about then and bid the Dow up to close at 17,623.87, up 21.57 or 0.12%. S&P rose a magnificent 2.02 (0.1%) to 2,051.60. Cheering was muted.

One thing y'all had better never forget about human nature is that everybody would rather hear a comfortable lie than an uncomfortable truth. Deceive me, but don't disturb me. That's why markets and civilizations fall over cliffs. Right now the stock markets are believing what they want, namely that central banks will keep the liquor -- cheap new money -- flowing so the party can rock on. They don't realize that the band has died. All the same, Dow has risen for seven of the last seven days. Both major indices stand above their 200 day moving averages. In the end, stupid is incredibly long-lived, although eventually reality catches up with it.

Dow in gold has crossed its 50 day moving average, which is a likely target for a turnaround. Dow in silver is jiggling around that 50 DMA, too, but seems more likely to reach its 200 DMA before it turns around.

Gold dropped back $10 (0.8%) to $1,243.80 on Comex. Silver gainsaid, rising 3.5 (0.22%) to 1584.1¢.

Here's the Gold/Silver Ratio chart,

The ratio has fallen from a high (on this End of Day Chart) of 84.38 down to 78.51 today. More important, it has fallen to its bottom channel line. If it hits that line, it must either punch through or react back toward the upper boundary, as it has since last October.

What would a punch through need? Runaway silver over 1625¢ & pounding leather for 1800¢. Maybe, but oftentimes during gold & silver rallies, silver outperforms toward the END, not the beginning, of a rally. So its present location near that bottom range boundary looks more like and end than a beginning.

A reversal upward would need only a gold correction, which seems to be taking place. Silver often rises faster than gold, but almost always falls faster. Faster falling silver would raise the Gold/Silver Ratio. (It's a fraction, folks.)

Then we've got silver, still paying out that bowl formation. Look here,

Yep, the chart is messy because all this action is messy. I keep thinking silver will drop once more to complete the right shoulder of an upside-down head & shoulders bottom. Right now it is caught between the extended rising edge of that bowl and 1600¢ resistance (Neckline?) it cannot penetrate. Something will give, & it looks like it will be silver on this first try.

This is a dangerous game. I cheerfully admit that if silver does burst through 1600¢ it would run to 1830¢ or so. Still, it think silver must see that correction first, to purge the optimism and ready itself for another rally.

Here's a gold chart,

Today gold closed below its 20 day moving average -- not much, but it's a break. Panic would follow a close below $1,225. RSI is pointing down, along with volume, the MACD, Rate of Change. Commitments of Traders remain bearish. Not much positive to point to. Needs a correction. Any close above $1,290 would knock all that in the head and send gold shooting for $1,310.

On 21 March 1556 Thomas Cranmer, Archbishop of Canterbury who led the Reformation, was burned at the stake in Oxford by Bloody Mary. By long interrogations, imprisonment, and intimidation he had been forced to recant his Reformed positions. But when he got up to preach, he recanted the recantations. He told a confidante that he would know whether his witness was not true if when he was burned he withdrew his hand from the fire. Later, as the flames rose around him, he held out his hand, the hand that had signed the recantations while he repeated, "This unworthy right hand! This unworthy right hand!" His hand never flinched.

This is Holy Week. I will not send out a commentary on Good Friday.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
18-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,253.80 -10.70 -0.85%
Silver, $/oz 15.81 -0.22 -1.35%
Gold/Silver Ratio 79.324 0.402 0.51%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0126 -0.0001 -0.51%
Platinum 970.00 11.30 1.18%
Palladium 589.60 12.90 2.24%
S&P 500 2,049.50 8.99 0.44%
Dow 17,602.30 120.81 0.69%
Dow in GOLD $s 290.21 4.43 1.55%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.04 0.21 1.55%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,113.65 22.55 2.07%
US Dollar Index 95.12 0.32 0.34%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,255.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,285.32 1,297.25 1,297.25
1/2 AE 0.50 639.64 662.12 1,324.24
1/4 AE 0.25 322.96 337.34 1,349.34
1/10 AE 0.10 131.69 137.44 1,374.44
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,222.96 1,231.96 1,256.85
British sovereign 0.24 297.69 310.69 1,319.84
French 20 franc 0.19 236.10 240.10 1,286.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,266.50 1,276.50 1,276.50
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,265.20 1,279.20 1,279.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 721.74 658.98 1,317.96
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.08 335.77 1,343.06
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.05 136.82 1,368.17
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,504.19 1,515.19 1,256.69
.9999 bar 1.00 1,259.59 1,267.20 1,267.20
SPOT SILVER: 15.84      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,541.10 12,827.10 17.94
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,554.80 4,716.80 15.99
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,609.00 1,634.00 16.34
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 159.90 164.90 16.49
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.94 16.40 16.40
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.34 18.59 18.59
SPOT PLATINUM: 970.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 985.00 1,015.00 1,015.00
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.