Maybe some of y'all know what's going on and can share it with this nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Markets seem frozen, hovering but unable to fly higher.
US dollar index rose a leetle today, just enough to bump up against resistance at 95.30. Can it punch through? Indicators don't favor it. Rose 18 basis points (0.19%) to 95.30. I remind y'all the dollar's position is precarious, but not fatal until it falls through 92.50 support. Till then, the jury is still out on whether the buck can resume its rally.
Euro's chart doesn't particularly inspire me, either. It jumped up on the dollar's bad luck, but traded back down into a gap and now shows all the energy of a dead pig in the sunshine. Down 0.26% today to $1.1241.
Y'all really are watching an "historical" event, namely, the dissolution of Europe and a 2000 year old civilization. Better the Holy Roman Empire by far than this chiseling, whining, self-indulgent & self-deceived indecision.
Japan is in the same boat with Europe, a demographic nightmare where shortly their aging population will be spending more for adult diapers than they do for food. Yen today lost 0.36% to 89.32. Consolidation area is either a top or breath-catching for another run higher.
Stocks wanted to fall today, and by 11:00 were down 50 points. Friends came in about then and bid the Dow up to close at 17,623.87, up 21.57 or 0.12%. S&P rose a magnificent 2.02 (0.1%) to 2,051.60. Cheering was muted.
One thing y'all had better never forget about human nature is that everybody would rather hear a comfortable lie than an uncomfortable truth. Deceive me, but don't disturb me. That's why markets and civilizations fall over cliffs. Right now the stock markets are believing what they want, namely that central banks will keep the liquor -- cheap new money -- flowing so the party can rock on. They don't realize that the band has died. All the same, Dow has risen for seven of the last seven days. Both major indices stand above their 200 day moving averages. In the end, stupid is incredibly long-lived, although eventually reality catches up with it.
Dow in gold has crossed its 50 day moving average, which is a likely target for a turnaround. Dow in silver is jiggling around that 50 DMA, too, but seems more likely to reach its 200 DMA before it turns around.
Gold dropped back $10 (0.8%) to $1,243.80 on Comex. Silver gainsaid, rising 3.5 (0.22%) to 1584.1¢.
Here's the Gold/Silver Ratio chart, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy
The ratio has fallen from a high (on this End of Day Chart) of 84.38 down to 78.51 today. More important, it has fallen to its bottom channel line. If it hits that line, it must either punch through or react back toward the upper boundary, as it has since last October.
What would a punch through need? Runaway silver over 1625¢ & pounding leather for 1800¢. Maybe, but oftentimes during gold & silver rallies, silver outperforms toward the END, not the beginning, of a rally. So its present location near that bottom range boundary looks more like and end than a beginning.
A reversal upward would need only a gold correction, which seems to be taking place. Silver often rises faster than gold, but almost always falls faster. Faster falling silver would raise the Gold/Silver Ratio. (It's a fraction, folks.)
Then we've got silver, still paying out that bowl formation. Look here, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy
Yep, the chart is messy because all this action is messy. I keep thinking silver will drop once more to complete the right shoulder of an upside-down head & shoulders bottom. Right now it is caught between the extended rising edge of that bowl and 1600¢ resistance (Neckline?) it cannot penetrate. Something will give, & it looks like it will be silver on this first try.
This is a dangerous game. I cheerfully admit that if silver does burst through 1600¢ it would run to 1830¢ or so. Still, it think silver must see that correction first, to purge the optimism and ready itself for another rally.
Here's a gold chart, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR
Today gold closed below its 20 day moving average -- not much, but it's a break. Panic would follow a close below $1,225. RSI is pointing down, along with volume, the MACD, Rate of Change. Commitments of Traders remain bearish. Not much positive to point to. Needs a correction. Any close above $1,290 would knock all that in the head and send gold shooting for $1,310.
On 21 March 1556 Thomas Cranmer, Archbishop of Canterbury who led the Reformation, was burned at the stake in Oxford by Bloody Mary. By long interrogations, imprisonment, and intimidation he had been forced to recant his Reformed positions. But when he got up to preach, he recanted the recantations. He told a confidante that he would know whether his witness was not true if when he was burned he withdrew his hand from the fire. Later, as the flames rose around him, he held out his hand, the hand that had signed the recantations while he repeated, "This unworthy right hand! This unworthy right hand!" His hand never flinched.
This is Holy Week. I will not send out a commentary on Good Friday.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger