The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Thursday, 24 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  18-Mar-16 24-Mar-16 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,580.60 1,519.10 -61.50 -3.9
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,253.80 1,221.60 -32.20 -2.6
Gold/silver ratio 79.324 80.416 1.092 1.4
Silver/gold ratio 0.0126 0.0124 -0.0002 -1.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 290.22 296.40 6.18 2.1
Dow in gold ounces 14.04 14.34 0.30 2.1
Dow in Silver ounces 1,113.65 1,153.03 39.39 3.5
Dow Industrials 17,602.30 17,515.73 -86.57 -0.5
S&P500 2,049.58 2,035.94 -13.64 -0.7
US dollar index 95.12 96.17 1.05 1.1
Platinum 970.00 952.40 -17.60 -1.8
Palladium 589.60 572.50 -17.10 -2.9

Here are some articles y'all will find profitable:

1. an interview with "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author and 11 other books He says his 2002 forecast for a market meltdown in 2016 is now underway, and "there's little investors can do but by gold or silver & hope the Fed slows the slide."

2. Fred Reed is one of my favorite writers, part porcupine, part prophet, all honest. Read his fairy tale about the presidential race, "It Cometh from the Pit & Hath A Knout."

3. What in the world is happening in the People's Republic of Kansas, Dorothy? Stalinist Department of Child Services has kidnapped two the Schwab family's six children and refuses to return them. Now drugging the 13 year old boy with psychotropic drugs, against his parents' will. Whoops -- none of the allegations against the parents has been proved after 11 months, and DCS admits that. Family's a little weird? So what? Weird is not a crime; neither is homeschooling. Kidnapping, on the other hand . . .


The expected precious metals correction showed up this week, hammering all heads. Stocks looked sickly all week, finally ended down, but not as much as they merited. Rally is probably over. US dollar index recovered 1.1%, and fell not into the abyss - yet. Platinum & Palladium want to drop with silver & gold.

US DOLLAR INDEX has risen the last 5 days -- not enthusiastically, 'tis true, but risen still. Test will come at the 200 day moving average (97.08) & the 50 DMA (97.40). Dollar is locked in a downtrend, but can't be written off till it closes below 92.50.

Euro flatlined today, up 0.1% to 1.1181. Yen dropped 0.44% to 88.59. Both are technically in uptrends, but with gigantic volatility & indecision.

Inflation markets have switched to full correction mode. WTIC eased off 0.43% to $39.59/bbl, but it has broken its uptrend line and is fixing to break its rising 20 DMA. Next move down. Copper also has broken its uptrend line, ending today little changed at $2.238, but broke down still. CRB gapped down today, leaving behind what looks like an island reversal. Roll on downhill.

Stocks kept on chiseling away their price this week. None of the losses was huge, merely losses, consistent with a market that has lost buying power.

Today the Dow gained 13.14 (0.8%), closing 17,515.73. Gain all came very late in the day. Great to have friends in high places, I reckon. S&P500 never quite made it through unchanged. Ended down 0.77 (0.7%) at 2,035.94. Gravity will become vengeful below 17,500 and 2024.

At this stage in world history, the Dow in Gold (closed today at 14.40 oz) and the Dow in silver (1,152.35 oz) are aimed higher. DiS barely crossed its 200 DMA today, but soon hits stiffer resistance. Silver & gold are just beginning a correction stocks will soon share with more fervor. Till then, the Dow in metals will rise.

The Volatility index, which measures fear in the stock market, reached Smugness a few days ago at 13.75. Today it tried to shoot up, but ended the day falling back. When it is rolling up to Terror (around 30) it needs 2 - 4 weeks to make the whole trip. VIX is telling us stocks are near breaking, and will break lustily and large. I remind y'all that both the Dow & S&P500 have built out bearish rising wedges, and broken down from their tips -- not a forerunner of higher prices. Look here,

Gold scraped off another $2.10 (0.1%) on Comex to $1,221.60. Silver backed up 7.2¢ (0.47%) to close at 1519.1¢. Gold/Silver ratio rose again today, up 2.3% in two days.

That ratio has indeed bounced off the lower channel boundary, as y'all can see. It gapped up yesterday, above the 50 DMA, and ineluctably will push forward toward that top channel boundary, now around 84. In other words, silver will fall faster than gold.

Yesterday gold finally began paying the promise of that Bear Flag by plunging. Today it took a breath, but next week it will resume falling. This could last until mid-April, and gold might reach $1,195 or $1,170.

Silver is dealing from a weak hand. Today's 1510¢ low approached the 50 DMA (1502¢). Most likely target is the lip of that bowl silver broke skyward from, about 1460¢.

However, nothing has changed my mind: silver & gold both bottomed and turned up in December, ending the post-2011 correction. Higher prices coming, after a correction.

But I could be wrong. I ain't no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. I'm from so far back in the woods we have to order sunlight from Sears & Roebuck.

Tomorrow is Good Friday so I won't be sending a commentary. May God bless you all at Eastertide and always!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
24-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,221.60 -2.10 -0.2
Silver, $/oz 15.19 -0.07 -0.5
Gold/Silver Ratio 80.416 -0.134 -0.2
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0124 -0.0001 -0.5
Platinum 952.40 -7.90 -0.8
Palladium 572.50 -10.25 -1.8
S&P 500 2,035.94 -0.77 -0.0
Dow 17,515.73 13.14 0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 296.40 0.76 0.3
Dow in GOLD oz 14.34 0.04 0.3
Dow in SILVER oz 1,153.03 6.30 0.5
US Dollar Index 96.17 0.11 0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,217.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,247.03 1,258.60 1,258.60
1/2 AE 0.50 620.57 642.39 1,284.78
1/4 AE 0.25 313.33 327.28 1,309.14
1/10 AE 0.10 127.76 133.35 1,333.49
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,186.53 1,195.53 1,219.67
British sovereign 0.24 288.82 301.82 1,282.16
French 20 franc 0.19 229.07 233.07 1,248.36
Krugerrand 1.00 1,229.98 1,239.98 1,239.98
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,227.80 1,241.80 1,241.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 700.24 639.35 1,278.69
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 310.54 325.76 1,303.05
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.09 132.74 1,327.40
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,457.90 1,468.90 1,218.30
.9999 bar 1.00 1,222.06 1,229.80 1,229.80
SPOT SILVER: 15.17      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,990.55 12,312.55 17.22
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,357.15 4,519.15 15.32
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,542.00 1,567.00 15.67
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 153.20 158.20 15.82
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.27 15.73 15.73
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.67 17.92 17.92
SPOT PLATINUM: 952.40      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 967.40 997.40 997.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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