The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 28 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Happy Easter Monday! In Europe Easter Monday is a holiday, so not much happened today. Besides, even though options expiry occurred today, silver & gold had been driven down enough last week to keep the options writers from having to pay off on most options.

Next options expiry is 26 April. Y'all watch how silver & gold will dip on that date.

Stocks churned up and down today, one index gainsaying another. While the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell (about 0.15%), Dow Industrials & S&P500 rose tinily (I just coined that word). In jagged trading the Dow managed to end 19.8 (0.11%) higher. S&P500 millimetered up 1.11 (0.05%) to 2,037.05. Both indices have broken down from rising wedges. Okay, maybe they rise yet to a higher high by a few points? Won't save them. Rally over.

After six higher days the US dollar index today dropped 21 basis points (0.22%) to 95.96. Supposedly this happened because the January personal consumption expenditures came in at 0.1% versus a 0.2% forecast. The idea of adults watching a number that imaginary and insignificant & then making investment decisions on it pains the fastidious mind. Seems to me the US dollar index just got too near the Kryptonite at the 50 day moving average (97.34) and withered. But how much can a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee know? I say "y'all" and my mouth can't even wrap around the words "youse guys." I wouldn't make it on Wall Street.

Silver & gold moved little today. Hardly worth talking about. Gold lost one thin Fern (Federal Reserve Note) to $1,220.10. Silver gave up -- wait for it! -- 6/10 of a cent to 1518.5¢, in blistering trading.

Gold felt with its toes toward the 50 day moving average ($1,197) and made a new low for the move at $1,206.10. Be warned now, so y'all don't fly to pieces when it happens, that if gold works through $1,200 the selling will hit it like a concrete block hitting a roach. Don't let that bother you. Ought to stop around $1,190 or $1,170.

Silver now is treading water below its 20 day moving average (1542¢), looking its 50 DMA (1504) in the eye. There's more: 200 DMA lieth just below at 1492¢, The bowl lip about 1460¢ looks strong enough to catch it.

On 28 March 1946 Juan Peron was elected President of Argentina. He would hold office for six years and wreck one of the richest economies on the globe. That socialism ALWAYS works.

On 28 March a group of Copperheads (Southern sympathizers) attacked Federal soldiers in Charleston, Illinois. The "official" history rather obscures the huge unpopularity of the war in the north, and the large Copperhead population.

On 28 March 845 Viking raiders sacked Paris, and were paid a huge ransom to leave. Think about it: If they Vikings came to sack your city, would you pay them a huge ransom to leave?

I won't be sending a commentary tomorrow because I'll be finishing my monthly newsletter. See y'all again Wednesday, God willing.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
28-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,220.10 -1.00 -0.08%
Silver, $/oz 15.19 -0.01 -0.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio 80.349 -0.034 -0.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0124 0.0000 0.04%
Platinum 944.70 -7.70 -0.81%
Palladium 566.85 -5.65 -0.99%
S&P 500 2,037.05 1.11 0.05%
Dow 17,535.53 19.80 0.11%
Dow in GOLD $s 297.10 0.58 0.20%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.37 0.03 0.20%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,154.79 1.76 0.15%
US Dollar Index 95.96 -0.21 -0.22%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,219.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,248.87 1,260.46 1,260.46
1/2 AE 0.50 621.49 643.34 1,286.68
1/4 AE 0.25 313.79 327.77 1,311.07
1/10 AE 0.10 127.95 133.55 1,335.46
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,188.28 1,197.28 1,221.46
British sovereign 0.24 289.25 302.25 1,283.97
French 20 franc 0.19 229.41 233.41 1,250.17
Krugerrand 1.00 1,231.80 1,241.80 1,241.80
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,229.60 1,243.60 1,243.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 701.27 640.29 1,280.58
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 311.00 326.24 1,304.97
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.28 132.94 1,329.36
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,460.06 1,471.06 1,220.09
.9999 bar 1.00 1,223.87 1,231.60 1,231.60
SPOT SILVER: 15.20      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,008.43 12,330.43 17.25
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,364.53 4,526.53 15.34
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,544.50 1,569.50 15.70
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 153.45 158.45 15.85
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.30 15.76 15.76
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.70 17.95 17.95
SPOT PLATINUM: 944.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 959.70 989.70 989.70
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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