The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 31 March a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Before today's commentary I need to catch y'all up on two things.

ROBERT KIYOSAKI. A few days ago I mentioned that Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" had recently called for a stock meltdown and recommended investors buy silver & gold. That prompted WM to take me to task on account of Kiyosaki's bad reputation. As WM said, "Anybody can predict a market meltdown & claim to be prescient -- 14 years later." He also said, "Rich Dad Poor Dad is one of the all-time worst financial books ever written."

Well, my friend WM is clever & well-read, so I'll take his word for it. I've stoutly resisted reading Kiyosaki all these years, and ain't about to start now. I was only interested in his remark about stocks and metals, but I appreciate being corrected. Every decade or so I need it.

US $20 LIBERTIES JEWELRY GRADE. The numismatic market for semi-bullion pieces like US $20 golds has been losing premium since 1998, so I never recommend these coins as an investment in gold. However, I would of course buy these coins, all minted before 1933, if I could get them at the same price as bullion coins. Who wouldn't?

I can get up to 200 each JEWELRY GRADE US $20 Liberty type (before 1908) at 3% over melt at wholesale. This means I can sell them to you, even at our highest 3.5% commission, at 6.6% over gold. That's CHEAPER than one ounce modern gold American Eagles! I can also get up to 60 each JEWELRY GRADE US $20 St. Gaudens.

What is Jewelry Grade? That covers coins of all grades, from Uncirculated to Very Fine, with some flaw that keeps them from being collectible. It might be slightly scratched, cleaned, polished, or rim-nicked, but with no solder or holes. In other words, the coin is just worth its gold value, 0.9675 troy ounce. It's a bullion coin, not a collector's coin.

If you're interested in these, call us at (931) 766-6066 or (888) 218-9226.


I have to make this quick because a big storm with tornadoes is closing on me across Wayne County.

Having accomplished its largesse to Wall Street, Janet Yellen's spell evaporated today, just like Cinderella's coach and four returning to pumpkin & mice at midnight. Poof!

Dow hit 17,790 at yesterday's high, but early this morning its skin started turning orange. Lo, as the day waxed later, the Dow began to sprout a green stem. About 12:30 it turned down and skidded to the curbside, almost shot at 17,663, but it bounced off that curb up to only 31.57 (0.18%) lower than yesterday. S&P500 was like those lizards turned into Cinderella's coachmen. As the day wore on and the clock struck 12:30, its skin started turning green. By 2:30 it had a long tail, and claws. Ended the day 4.21 (0.2%) lower & looking right lizardly.

Both the Dow in Gold & Dow in silver turned zagged down today. Last 2 days the DiS had been above its 200 DMA, but no mo.

Dow in Gold at 14.463 yesterday came close to the 50% correction (14.71 oz), & turned down today, closing at 14.33 oz.

But Janet's spell didn't fall off the US dollar index. It trashed another 21 basis points (0.23%) to 94.61. The world still holds some foolish people who believe the criminals at the Fed & the world's central banks have the people's best interest at heart. Right, like Cinderella's sweet stepmother was hunting her a husband.

Euro rose 0.38% to $1.1380 while the yen fell 01.2% to 88.85. Euro's rally is propelled only by the dollars woe.

Gold rose $7.30 (0.6%) to $1,234.20 on Comex. Silver rose 25.4¢ (1.67%) to 1546¢.

I feel like a tick hanging on the tip of a Labrador Retriever's tail. I'm thrown first one way, then t'other so fast my eyes can't focus. One minute I believe silver & gold are headed up, then I think about it another way or read something & think that correction is still lurking.

Here's a gold chart,

I have added a green line to mark the uptrend from the December/January low. Tomorrow that line crosses $1,214, so a close below that would clinch the arrival of a correction. I will box it closer than that. Gold must also climb ABOVE the 20 DMA now at $1,246.62 to prove it means to climb.

Silver came within a hair of closing above its 20 DMA at 1549¢. Tomorrow boxed in between 1518¢ (uptrend line) and 20 dma at 1549¢.

Got to run. I can hear the thunder & am headed for my basement at home.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
31-Mar-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,234.20 7.30 0.59%
Silver, $/oz 15.46 0.25 1.67%
Gold/Silver Ratio 79.832 -0.853 -1.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0125 0.0001 1.07%
Platinum 976.60 12.30 1.28%
Palladium 563.05 -2.35 -0.42%
S&P 500 2,059.74 -4.21 -0.20%
Dow 17,685.09 -31.57 -0.18%
Dow in GOLD $s 296.21 -2.29 -0.77%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.33 -0.11 -0.77%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,143.93 -21.18 -1.82%
US Dollar Index 94.64 -0.21 -0.22%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,232.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,261.98 1,273.69 1,273.69
1/2 AE 0.50 628.01 650.09 1,300.18
1/4 AE 0.25 317.09 331.21 1,324.83
1/10 AE 0.10 129.30 134.95 1,349.48
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,200.75 1,209.75 1,234.19
British sovereign 0.24 292.28 305.28 1,296.87
French 20 franc 0.19 231.81 235.81 1,263.07
Krugerrand 1.00 1,245.96 1,255.96 1,255.96
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,242.40 1,256.40 1,256.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 708.63 647.01 1,294.02
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 314.26 329.67 1,318.67
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.63 134.33 1,343.32
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,475.38 1,486.38 1,232.80
.9999 bar 1.00 1,236.71 1,244.40 1,244.40
SPOT SILVER: 15.42      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,094.23 12,416.23 17.37
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,429.43 4,591.43 15.56
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,566.50 1,591.50 15.92
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 155.65 160.65 16.07
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.52 15.98 15.98
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.92 18.17 18.17
SPOT PLATINUM: 976.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 991.60 1,021.60 1,021.60
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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