The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 16 June a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Yesterday afternoon a gigantic summer storm blew in, with high winds & rain & thunder & lightning, everything needed for a great show, but it also blew out our internet & email at my office & at home. That's why y'all received no commentary yesterday. Office remained internetless all day save a 20 minute respite, but at home the internet is smokin', almost as fast as dial-up.


Y'all can follow this link to the Gold Summit,

The Gold Summit offers 20 different interviews with 19 different people, and one nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool among 'em. If you are interested in gold and silver investing, better take a look. You can watch them for free June 16 through June 18, or you can buy and download podcasts. Just so y'all know, if you do buy anything, I receive a small commission.

Before I get started, those US $5 gold commems are such a great low-premium buy & have been so popular, we will continue the special one more day, through Friday, 17 June. But when you call, try (888) 218-9226 first, then (931) 766-6066.

NEXT, let's review the damage done by Janet and her Dwarves yesterday.

Once again the Federal Reserve did its best to de-stabilize markets. Thru the curling lips and nasal whine of Janet Yellen the FOMC announced no move in its discount rate, and implied they're likely to raise it once later, this year. Yeah, sure, in a pig's eye.

Yesterday gold closed Comex at $1,285.80, up only 20¢, then as soon as Yellen pontificated, shot to $1,297. Silver had closed at 1748.9¢, only 7.9¢ higher than yesterday, but it jumped to 1762¢.

Janet managed to rabbit chop the US dollar index, too, talking it down 38 basis points (0.4%) to 94.66. Euro rose 0.46% to $1.1261, which no doubt was part of the reason behind the FOMC's flinching. They're scared of Brexit, scared just the anticipation of it can created a stampede out of euros & hasten its eventual centrifugal fate. Yen was flat at 94.34.

What will be the outcome if the UK votes to leave the EU? My guess is that the pound sterling would tank, although in the end Brexit will help the British economy. The euro would tank, probably never to recover. Refugee money would flow into dollars, yen, and gold. However, a sinking US stock market, which seems to lie close ahead in the future, would tug the dollar downward. Brexit would accelerate the trend begun more than a decade ago for gold to edge out the fiat currencies, as more and more the public views them as untrustworthy.

If the Brits vote no to Brexit, then short term the pound would rise along with the euro. But the euro rising at any time is like you attaching jumper cables from your car battery to a corpse. You can make it jump, but it ain't never coming back to life. Brexit failure would probably also pull money away from dollars, yen, and gold.

By the ways, the polls now show a majority favoring Brexit.


Markets were passing strange today. In what way? Dollar index shot way up, then closed up on 5 basis points. Intraday gold made a new 2016 high, but couldn't hold on there. In other words, all pop and no corn. All vine, no taters.

After a new high for the move at 95.54 & a huge jump for the day, the dollar retreated & closed up only five (5) basis points. Once again, the 95.50 resistance made it flinch & flee like Kryptonite. Ended below the 20 day moving average but above the 20. Six basis points less & it would have posted the first half of a key reversal. It is trying to advance, but just got sick at its itty tummy today. Behold the chart,

Euro nearly fell through bottom boundary of its rising trading channel & the 200 DMA not far below Ended down 0.29% at $1.1228. Yen gapped up today, probably marking the end of its run. Rose 1.64% to 95.89.

Gold was a mad dog this morning, raging to a new 2016 high at $1,318.90. Remained up over $1,306 from 3:00 a.m. Eastern (i.e., in European trading) but about noon began tumbling. Comex still closed up $10.30 (0.8%) over yesterday at $1,296.10, but in the aftermarket slipped below $1,280.

Here's the conundrum: A push to a new high intraday with a lower close makes the first half of a key reversal, but that's not exactly what gold did. It closed Comex HIGHER on the day, but on the End of Day chart closed lower. Volume was light years greater than yesterday. Chart,

Today was not fatal to gold's rally, but must be made up tomorrow (if the rally is to continue) by closing higher.

Mumbling under his suspicious breath, some nat'ral born Tennessee fool is thinking that the Nice Government Men shore don't want that dollar to run away topside and leave the euro draining away down the sewer. Likewise they wouldn't want gold to run away. And was it coincidental that central bankers staged a tag-team jawboning match around the world, denouncing doom against Brexit, time zone by time zone? Globalists have a LOT riding on the FrankenUnion.

Ever more volatile silver reached a high of 1788¢ but in step with gold began falling Closed Comex 10.5¢ higher at 1759.4, but in the aftermarket right now is trading at 1727¢. Look, the chart,

Silver shows the same new high (although not highest in 2016) & lower close on big volume.

Silver is not running this train, gold is. If gold can recover tomorrow & close above $1,308, it will jump toward $1,350 & take silver with it. Nice Government Men would rather not see that happen, so there's a good chance it won't.

Meanwhile I want y'all to look at recent events in the U.S. & in the UK, & ask yourselves, "Is it real, or Memorex?"

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Jun-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,296.10 10.30 0.80%
Silver, $/oz 17.59 0.11 0.60%
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.667 0.147 0.20%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 -0.0000 -0.20%
Platinum 977.90 3.50 0.36%
Palladium 535.85 2.55 0.48%
S&P 500 2,077.99 6.49 0.31%
Dow 17,733.10 92.93 0.53%
Dow in GOLD $s 282.83 -0.77 -0.27%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.68 -0.04 -0.27%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,007.91 -0.74 -0.07%
US Dollar Index 94.71 0.05 0.05%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,282.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,314.05 1,324.95 1,324.95
1/2 AE 0.50 653.31 676.26 1,352.51
1/4 AE 0.25 329.86 344.54 1,378.15
1/10 AE 0.10 134.51 140.38 1,403.79
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,250.33 1,259.33 1,284.77
British sovereign 0.24 304.05 317.05 1,346.84
French 20 franc 0.19 241.14 245.14 1,313.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,290.97 1,300.97 1,300.97
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,292.00 1,306.00 1,306.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 737.15 673.05 1,346.10
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 326.91 342.94 1,371.74
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 135.89 139.74 1,397.38
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,536.31 1,547.31 1,283.33
.9999 bar 1.00 1,286.49 1,294.00 1,294.00
SPOT SILVER: 17.29      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.50 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,541.10 12,826.10 17.94
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,982.55 5,144.55 17.44
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,754.00 1,779.00 17.79
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 174.40 179.40 17.94
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.39 17.85 17.85
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.79 20.04 20.04
SPOT PLATINUM: 977.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 992.90 1,022.90 1,022.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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