The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 8 July a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  1-Jul-16 8-Jul-16 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,954.40 2,005.80 51.40 2.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,336.70 1,356.60 19.90 1.5
Gold/silver ratio 68.394 67.634 -0.761 -1.1
Silver/gold ratio 0.0146 0.0148 0.0002 1.1
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 277.58 276.52 -1.06 -0.4
Dow in gold ounces 13.43 13.38 -0.05 -0.4
Dow in Silver ounces 918.41 904.71 -13.69 -1.5
Dow Industrials 17,949.37 18,146.74 197.37 1.1
S&P500 2,102.90 2,106.97 4.07 0.2
US dollar index 95.72 96.33 0.61 0.6
Platinum 1,054.70 1,097.00 42.30 4.0
Palladium 606.15 617.60 11.45 1.9

Despite stocks' rally today, they failed to rise against silver or gold for the week. Silver knocked everybody silly today, and gold didn't slouch, either. Dollar index is pitiful. Platinum & palladium are raging.

Should you listen to Wall Street's cheerleaders & pimps, you'd think the millennium had arrived sure enough. Dow burst upward 250.86 (1.4%) to 18,146.74 while the S&P500 added 1.53% or 32.00 to 2,106.97 -- as one headline shouted, it "brushed" its old high.

Yes, but. Dow's all time high came on 19 May 2015 at 18,312.39. Dow's high today was 18,166.77. S&P's all time high hit two days later, 21 May 2015, at 2,130.82.

Daddurn, that's sounds like stocks are goin' like a house afire, don't it? How've they done for 2016 so far? Whoops. Dow is up 4.1% & the S&P up 3.1%. Meanwhile gold has risen 27.9% and silver 45.6% (not a typo).

But more important is that you compare stocks to gold & silver, so you can see that the trend has changed. Back at the 2015 stock highs, the Dow in Gold was 15.17 oz, today, 13.27 oz. Today, the Dow is worth 1.90 oz or 12.5% less in gold.

At the May 2015 stock peak, the Dow in silver cost 1,063.51 oz, today only 891.73 oz. The Dow has lost 171.78 ounces or 16.2% against silver.

Y'all beginning to understand why I watch these spreads, Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver?

I am so puking sick of government reports of all kinds I don't even want to talk about that hogwash anymore. It means nothing anyway, because the numbers are imaginary estimates, and the next report they always revise the spine out of 'em anyway.

So a "good" lying jobs report was published today. Stock markets, for reasons which comport not with logic, took that as a sign that the Fed was more likely to raise interest rates, and, as everybody knows, it's great for business when interest rates rise and you have to pay more to borrow.

One might also conclude that if the Fed's more likely to raise interest rates, that might make for a stronger dollar, since the relative interest rate is a prime determinant of exchange rates. One would conclude against how the US dollar index behaved today. It shot up to 96.7, then slammed immediately down to 95.826. Some big sellers were waiting for a rise over 96.60. Then it leveled off and finished the day down 6 basis points (nothing, 0.06%) at 96.33.

'Tain't right, folks. Something smells like shrimp left out in the sun for four days. Either the Fed/yankee government are manipulating the dollar down, or the dollar is sick as cholera. It should not behave this way. There's something we're not seeing.

Yen rose 0.3% to 99.54¢=Y100 (or US$1 = Y100.46). One wonders how long the Japanese Nice Government Men, committed as they are to destroying their currency, will stand for these yen gains. Euro sank 0.07% to $1.1055.

Lawsie! It's been one long coon's age since I've seen silver behave like it did today! Here are the Comex closes, which hardly tell anything. Gold ended down $3.50 (0.3%) at $1,356.60. Silver gained 26¢ (1.3%) to 2005.8¢.

Mercy! Where do I start? In the aftermarket gold rose to $1,366.50, 0.5% or $6.40 over yesterday's Comex close. But silver! Silver rose to 2030.5¢, up 2.5% over yesterday.

That STILL don't tell the tale. Remember yesterday I was expecting silver to correct perhaps as far as 1920 but said "The rally will resume, & quickly"? I didn't know how quickly.

By 9:45 today silver had fallen to 1923.5, fell like a meteor out of the sky, then rose like a July 4th skyrocket in 30 minutes to 1990¢, & kept on climbing till the bell rang. Mercy, silver didn't even stop then, but rose another 25¢ in the aftermarket!

Now don't walk off yet. Think on that. Silver's low was 1922.5¢ & high was 2033¢, which I make to be a 110¢ difference, giving a half a cent to the enemy. Silver rose 5.7% off today's low, in one day.

Hold on there. Don't touch that delete key, I ain't near about finished. WHENEVER a market breaks to a new low, then fiercely turns around to close the day higher, that's strong action, at least the first half of a key reversal. But when it rises 5.7% off the low to close higher, well, it's just stronger than a garlic farmer's breath.

Hear my words and mark 'em: silver will rise further next week. This rally is aiming for 2300¢, and the gold for $1,450. I think it's the covered-up, hushed-up European banking crisis that's pushing them right now, but maybe it's just that Brexit suddenly pulled the wraps off more economic & financial messes than anybody imagined were there. When people get scared, their powers of observation improve substantially.

Did I mention that the Gold/Silver ratio has fallen to 67.634? That's down 8.9% from 74.203 two Fridays ago.

Sure, it's a red hot precious metals rally, sure it's dangerous as a rattlesnake on a liverish day, sure, sure, watch out. But it sure is fun while it runs. And later this year they will rise higher still.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
8-Jul-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,356.60 -3.50 -0.3
Silver, $/oz 20.06 0.26 1.3
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.634 -0.183 -0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0148 0.0002 1.3
Platinum 1,097.00 5.90 0.5
Palladium 617.60 4.75 0.8
S&P 500 2,106.97 32.00 1.5
Dow 18,146.74 250.86 1.4
Dow in GOLD $s 276.52 4.55 1.7
Dow in GOLD oz 13.38 0.22 1.7
Dow in SILVER oz 904.71 0.79 0.1
US Dollar Index 96.33 -0.06 -0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,356.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,390.41 1,401.94 1,401.94
1/2 AE 0.50 691.31 715.55 1,431.11
1/4 AE 0.25 349.04 364.56 1,458.24
1/10 AE 0.10 140.97 148.54 1,485.37
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,320.33 1,329.33 1,356.19
British sovereign 0.24 321.72 334.72 1,421.90
French 20 franc 0.19 255.16 259.16 1,388.10
Krugerrand 1.00 1,366.00 1,376.00 1,376.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,366.50 1,380.50 1,380.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 779.99 712.16 1,424.33
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 345.91 362.86 1,451.46
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 143.79 147.86 1,478.59
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,627.22 1,638.22 1,358.73
.9999 bar 1.00 1,361.25 1,368.50 1,368.50
SPOT SILVER: 20.31      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,661.08 14,946.08 20.90
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,871.98 6,033.98 20.45
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 2,055.50 2,080.50 20.81
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 204.55 209.55 20.96
1 oz .999 round 1.00 20.41 20.87 20.87
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 22.06 23.06 23.06
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,097.00      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,112.00 1,142.00 1,142.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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