The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 15 August a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Yea, buddy, that centralization's a great idea! Just channel & funnel all your business through one central location & computer. Bang up idea.

Whoops. Maybe not. Delta Airlines suffered an outage last week that forced them to cancel over 2,000 flights. Delta pointed the finger at a power outage & Georgia Power, and GP in return pointed the finger right back at Delta.

Combined with a computer "glitch" at Southwest a couple of weeks ago that cancelled 2,500 flights, one begins to wonder if these are only random coincidences. Since corporations are as consistently given to lying as the yankee government & all its minions, I don't risk the label "paranoid" by wondering if something else didn't happen to these airlines? Were their giant central computers hacked? Wooo, that rises a lot of other questions, like, By whom?

But hacked or not, once again life teaches us the lesson that centralization is not per se a great idea. In fact, it weakens systems rather than strengthening them.

Nobody pays no attention to a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, but even I know that when you want to dig a hole, you'd better take two shovels and a post hole digger, cause something is doomed to break if you take only one. That's not superstition, that's the Law of Maximum Cussedness in a fallen world.

Stocks edged up to new highs today. Dow rose 59.58 (0.32%) to 18,636.05 & S&P500 climbed 6.10 (0.28%). My comment? I am not interested in traps.

US dollar index fell 11 basis points (0.11%) to 95.57 and hit the uptrend line from the June low. Dollar index has now painted itself into a triangle's nose, so must break out one way or t'other. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Indicators strongly whisper strongly it will break down. Of course, it is a currency & thus subject to criminal central bank manipulation, and a breakdown would knock it out of the range where it has stayed since June (Roughly 96.87 to 95.20).

Silver & gold have me slap bumfuzzled. They keep stalling at the same levels, and last week kept making lower lows -- in other words, a broadening top. Yet they come back rallying the next day, and flat refuse to follow through downside. And we are moving into that time of year seasonally strong for metals. Gold today rose $4.50 (0.34%) to $1,340.30. Silver bounced back 14.9¢ (0.75%) to close Comex at 1982.1¢.

What makes it more baffling is that both metals have walked through their uptrend lines, which is a little like walking the plank past the end & continuing to walk on air.

Riddle is, which is weak & which strong, rises or falls? Do the rises show gold's real intent, that is, strength? Or are the weaknesses ruling?

First, the last 8 months argue for strength. The long correction has ended, & gold has shifted to long term rally mode.

Second, markets don't break down until they break down. When they ought to break down and don't, then they are strong.

All I can do is set boundaries. If silver closes below 1960¢ or gold below $1,333, more downside ought to follow. If silver can beat 2100¢ & gold $1,365, they will break to the upside.

Yep, I'm shaving that gold a little close, but it was stopped about $1,365 every time last week, so if it can pierce that line, it stands a chance of breaking free.

The cowards in charge at Vanderbilt University in Nashville announced they are paying the United Daughters of the Confederacy $1.2 million dollars to remove the name "Confederate" from Confederate Memorial Hall. These despicable people are terrified by the political correctness police, the Soviet mindset that presently tyrannizes the country. They are not FIT to have the name "Confederate" on any of their buildings, nor are they fit to memorialize the immortal soldiers who wore the grey and fought so valiantly for the survival of local self-government. They are as historically ignorant as they are cowardly. Junk. Like most of academia, they are intellectual junk, ready for history's Dempsey Dumpster, and their supine, chicken-hearted submission to thought-tyrants will be their well-earned gravestone.

DEO VINDICE!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Aug-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,340.30 4.50 0.34%
Silver, $/oz 19.82 0.15 0.76%
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.620 -0.283 -0.42%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0148 0.0001 0.42%
Platinum 1,113.80 -13.00 -1.15%
Palladium 691.10 1.55 0.22%
S&P 500 2,190.15 6.10 0.28%
Dow 18,636.05 59.58 0.32%
Dow in GOLD $s 287.43 -0.05 -0.02%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.90 -0.00 -0.02%
Dow in SILVER oz 940.22 -4.09 -0.43%
US Dollar Index 95.57 -0.11 -0.11%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,338.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,369.08 1,383.13 1,383.13
1/2 AE 0.50 682.02 705.95 1,411.91
1/4 AE 0.25 344.35 359.67 1,438.67
1/10 AE 0.10 140.42 146.54 1,465.44
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,302.62 1,311.62 1,338.11
British sovereign 0.24 317.40 330.40 1,403.56
French 20 franc 0.19 247.36 251.36 1,346.34
Krugerrand 1.00 1,347.67 1,357.67 1,357.67
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,348.30 1,362.30 1,362.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 769.52 702.61 1,405.22
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 341.27 358.00 1,431.98
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 141.86 145.87 1,458.75
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,598.93 1,609.93 1,335.27
.9999 bar 1.00 1,342.98 1,350.30 1,350.30
SPOT SILVER: 19.83      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,996.13 14,318.13 20.03
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,656.63 5,806.63 19.68
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,962.50 2,027.50 20.28
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 199.75 204.75 20.48
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.63 20.38 20.38
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.33 22.83 22.83
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,113.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,128.80 1,158.80 1,158.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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