The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 17 August a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

A surprise from our printer means I have to finish my monthly Moneychanger newsletter tomorrow, so I won't be sending y'all a commentary. Friday Susan & I are taking off to spend some time with companionable dear friends who live where cell phones won't work. That's a strong recommendation to my mind.

In my absence, let my suspicions rest on your mind, for what they're worth: if silver & gold don't break tomorrow, they're not going to. I spent part of my afternoon typing 5 months' gold & silver spot closes into my file, a very instructive & needful process. It makes you inhale the flow of those prices. What it showed me is that in the last 5 months silver & gold have been relentlessly strong, snapping back every time they're slapped down. Over the past 5 days they've cracked their uptrend line WITHOUT a breakdown. I suspect they are not levitating, but rather refusing to break. I don't think a break is coming.

Today the criminal and criminally stupid Fed's FOMC minutes were published, but 'twas the same old compost -- maybe I should say "worm castings," but that would denigrate a fine natural fertilizer. They blow hot and cold out of both sides of their mouth, trying to convince some of the market they will, and some of the market they won't, raise rates.

Truth is, market don't care, at least the markets I care about. Gold rose $5 in the aftermarket on that news. Mmmmm. On Comex both silver & gold were knocked back today silver 22.1¢ (1.1%) and gold $7.80 (0.6%) to $1,342.70. Maybe that was the Nice Government Men making sure the market didn't get away from 'em when the FOMC minutes were released.

All that don't make a hill of beans. Silver & gold will relentlessly rise, because central banks are relentlessly ruining their scrofulous currencies & their economies.

On the Fed's mumblings stocks rose, barely. Dow gobbled up 21.92 (0.12%) to 18,573.94. S&P 500 grabbed 4.07 (0.19%) to 2,182.22. Time ain't on their side.

Fed's lies did the US dollar index no good at all. Oh, they jiggled it some, but in the end it closed one tee-tiny basis point below yesterday at 94.75. Who could tell?

Silver showed a spike today to 1938¢, but it happened so fast it looks like a glitch. We're still in the same holding pattern: silver & gold must not close below 1960¢ & gold not below $1,335.

I remain convinced that Hillary, whose name re-arranged spells "Hy, Liar!", will lose the election, but I have a plan is she somehow steals it (a genuine possibility). Over the years I have thought about leaving the US but every other country is even more socialist, so I haven't left. But this is a better idea: why don't we all move to Texas and secede? We can erect a wall on the northern border to keep the blue-staters, i.e., socialists out. Then we can abolish all the economic regulations, and in about two years we'll have the richest economy on the globe. We'll be having to send foreign aid to California and Wisconsin & New York.

Y'all laugh now, but it won't sound so funny if that statist harpy gets elected.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Aug-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,342.70 -7.80 -0.58%
Silver, $/oz 19.63 -0.22 -1.11%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.411 0.369 0.54%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 -0.0001 -0.54%
Platinum 1,112.50 -9.30 -0.83%
Palladium 690.70 -13.35 -1.90%
S&P 500 2,182.22 4.07 0.19%
Dow 18,573.94 21.92 0.12%
Dow in GOLD $s 285.96 1.99 0.70%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.83 0.10 0.70%
Dow in SILVER oz 946.35 11.64 1.25%
US Dollar Index 94.75 -0.01 -0.01%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,347.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,380.15 1,392.95 1,392.95
1/2 AE 0.50 686.87 710.96 1,421.93
1/4 AE 0.25 346.80 362.22 1,448.89
1/10 AE 0.10 141.41 147.58 1,475.84
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,311.87 1,320.87 1,347.55
British sovereign 0.24 319.65 332.65 1,413.13
French 20 franc 0.19 249.12 253.12 1,355.75
Krugerrand 1.00 1,355.89 1,365.89 1,365.89
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,357.80 1,371.80 1,371.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 774.99 707.60 1,415.19
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 343.69 360.54 1,442.15
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 142.87 146.91 1,469.10
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,610.28 1,621.28 1,344.68
.9999 bar 1.00 1,352.52 1,359.80 1,359.80
SPOT SILVER: 19.67      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,881.73 14,203.73 19.87
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,609.43 5,759.43 19.52
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,946.50 1,981.50 19.82
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 198.15 203.15 20.32
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.47 19.97 19.97
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.17 22.67 22.67
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,112.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,127.50 1,157.50 1,157.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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