The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 30 August a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Way-yull, I worked myself out on that limb just in time to saw it off behind me, forecasting that silver & gold had seen their lows just in time for their drop. I will fudge today into that mold. My lower boundary for gold is $1,300. I don't now expect it to drop lower, but it might.

Big blow for gold & silver today came from the US dollar index, plague of nations. It rose 50 basis points to 96.04. This improves upon what the dollar index had earlier done by closing above the 50 day moving average (95.82). One has to expect that the dollar index will continue to rise, since a trend in force remains in force until invalidated.

Next barrier to the dollar index is the 200 DMA at 96.42.

Euro plummeted again today by 0.39% to $1.1144 & now has more than given back all its gains since its mid-August rise. Yen also appears well & truly broken, & closed today below its 50 DMA (97.33) at 97.10, down a meaty 1.03% today alone. Double peak about 100 now in place. So maybe the dollar will kick up its heels for a while.

Stocks looked none too perky today, closing near the bottom of the range established since mid-July. Dow fell 48.69 (0.25%) to 18,454.30 & S&P500 4.26 (0.2%) to 2,176.12.

Bottom boundaries of that range are (call them) 18,400 & 2,160. Closes below those levels would warn of lower things to come.

Gold closed lower by $11.00 (0.8%) at $1,311.80 on Comex. Silver gave away 19.1¢ (1%) to close at 1857.7¢. Contining dollar strength eats at them.

Bottom boundary of Gold's present range is about $1,300. Would be nice to see a sharp spike down during the day with a higher close at day's end. Needs a close above $1,335 to turn up.

Silver's low for this move so far was an intraday 1846¢. 1800¢ still looms as strongest nearby support. Big spike in silver volume today did NOT drag silver down, which shows resilience.

If silver & gold are minded to drop further, it will happen tomorrow or next day.

Sometimes laymen who study the law go nearly crazy to learn how crookedly law in the United States has been skewed away from common law rights. Take land ownership. Not a single one of you owns any land, however many titles and deeds you have, because in the US there's no such thing as "allodial" title anymore. The state has usurped your right to own land, even though in some states (Arkansas & Indiana, as I remember) their constitutions abolish all but allodial title.

If you think you own land, just refuse to pay the land tax one year and see if the REAL owner doesn't show up and take possession. What am I crabbing about? Simply this: there are NO property rights (save those the state finds it expedient to grant temporarily) if you do not indefeasibly hold the property, safe against all comers including the state. Eminent domain (where they take your house so some statist crony can build a shopping mall or pipeline or road) and property taxes kill property rights. The power to tax is the power to destroy, & thus the state has destroyed your right to own property. Through inheritance taxes and income taxes they can make sure, Mushrooms, that y'all never acquire an estate or property & keep you in your place. If you do, they'll steal it from your heirs soon as they put you in a box.

Awww, y'all don't pay no attention to me. I've just got slavery crosswise in my throat, stuck like a chicken bone, and sometimes I have to cough it up. Y'all go on down to the mall and buy something -- cheer up! Play a video game. Watch some TV.

Many thanks to y'all who have been praying for my foot to heal. Frankly I'm not getting quite the service out of it my ambition desires. Gloomy pictures flash through my mind of me ambulating like Grandpa McCoy. I deeply appreciate your continuing prayers for my healing.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
30-Aug-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,311.70 -11.00 -0.83%
Silver, $/oz 18.58 -0.19 -1.02%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.609 0.132 0.19%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 -0.0000 -0.19%
Platinum 1,053.80 -24.50 -2.27%
Palladium 677.95 -19.35 -2.77%
S&P 500 2,176.12 -4.26 -0.20%
Dow 18,454.30 -48.69 -0.26%
Dow in GOLD $s 290.83 1.66 0.57%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.07 0.08 0.57%
Dow in SILVER oz 993.40 7.52 0.76%
US Dollar Index 96.04 0.50 0.52%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,311.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,346.01 1,355.85 1,355.85
1/2 AE 0.50 668.56 692.03 1,384.05
1/4 AE 0.25 337.56 352.57 1,410.29
1/10 AE 0.10 137.64 143.65 1,436.53
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,276.92 1,285.92 1,311.90
British sovereign 0.24 311.14 324.14 1,376.96
French 20 franc 0.19 242.48 246.48 1,320.21
Krugerrand 1.00 1,319.77 1,329.77 1,329.77
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,321.90 1,335.90 1,335.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 754.34 688.75 1,377.50
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 334.53 350.93 1,403.73
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 139.06 143.00 1,429.97
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,572.14 1,583.14 1,313.04
.9999 bar 1.00 1,316.49 1,323.90 1,323.90
SPOT SILVER: 18.64      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,431.28 13,717.28 19.19
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,305.58 5,455.58 18.49
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,843.50 1,878.50 18.79
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 187.85 192.85 19.29
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.44 18.94 18.94
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.14 21.64 21.64
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,053.80      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,068.80 1,098.80 1,098.80
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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