The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 6 September a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Although warnings of raising the discount rate from Stanley Fisher & Janet Yellen were hogwash from the beginning, since the Fed never makes any waves in election years, today slammed the door on any rate rise, positively, & caught the central bankers' tails in the door, to boot.

Mercy, that US dollar index! Y'all remember I warned Friday it must hold 95.60 or swim like an anvil in Chesapeake Bay? Today somebody threw it over board, down an gargantuan 102 basis points (1.07%) to 94.82. Chart's here, but pull your wastebasket close before you hazard a look at it, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Dollar index has now lost everything it had gained since the central banking criminals began talking it up on 26 August. Their gassy promises lasted exactly ten days before dissipating. Wow. Both the world and I are impressed by their almighty power.

Yen & Euro are merely the pale reflections of the US dollar, so when it tanks they soar. Even that didn't help the euro too much. It rose 0.57% to $1.1253 while the yen rose 1.685 to 97.99. Big story in all this remains THE DOLLAR CONTINUES WEAK IN THE FACE OF LYING CENTRAL BANKERS' PROPAGANDA. Their lies aren't working any longer.

A bad report from the Institute for Supply Management's service sector index, weakest since 2010, precipitated the dollar's demise. No rate rise in September.

Stocks were not in the Big Top today. Dow added 46.16 (0.25%) to 18,538.12 & the S&P500 upped 6.5 (0.3%) to 2,186.48. Yes, yes, they managed to rise above their 20 day moving average, but remain locked in the trading range that has imprisoned them since mid-July. No change.

Dow in gold fell 1.77% today to 13.69 oz while the Dow in silver plunged 3.6% to 920.55 oz. Dow in gold chart is here, http://schrts.co/KfbQmg Dow in silver is right here, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP

No question their correction has ended, they are punching through those moving averages, and lower prices are in store for stocks, in gold and silver terms. Listen, listen: SWAP STOCKS FOR SILVER & GOLD.

West Texas Intermediate Crude has well and truly turned up after a false breakdown. Today rose 0.88% to $44.83. Behold, the chart, with today's strong rise on high volume, http://schrts.co/KvfGnd

All the action was in silver & gold today, not counting the US dollar index' nose dive. Gold soared 2.1% or $27.30, smashing two resistance levels and closing Comex at $1,349.40. But if gold left us speechless, silver left us breathless, up 4% or 77.3¢ go 2004.9¢

Whoa! No doubt now that silver & gold have now completed their correction, completely.

Gold smashed its way through $1,325 and $1,335 like pushing through a bead curtain, and ran to $1,357.20. Yes, it backed down to close at $1,349.40, but so what? Held on to most of the gain.

What are we looking at now? Gold leapt through its 20 & 50 DMAs & near about to the downtrend line from the last two tops. Look at this chart, y'all, http://schrts.co/vouqgc MACD, RSI, and Rate of Change have all turned up & volume was massive today. Just can't find any nits to pick off this chart. Once it breaks through $1,360, the downtrend line, it will punch through $1,378 and run for $1,400 with a minimum target of $1,450.

Lo, silver and the silver chart, http://schrts.co/9hm3fB

Yea, truly, silver's chart looks even stronger than gold's. Closed right on the downtrend line from the Juyl & August highs. Busted clean through the 20 & 50 DMAs. RSI, MACD, & Rate of Change are all positive and volume the last two days has been rising with price.

What in the world do y'all want, an engraved invitation? Buy the stuff!

Silver seems destined to poke through that last high at 2122, which leads me to expect a target at 2300¢, more if silver feels frisky.

Wait, wait, I ain't finished yet. The Gold/Silver ratio deserves on hard look, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy

It has Niagared from the August top, in a gappy move punching through the 20 & 50 DMAs, and today -- look at that! -- punched through the bottom line of the last trading channel! Didn't close there, but not for want of trying.

Platinum and palladium added their voices to the chorus. Platinum rose 3.% to $1,100 and Palladium rose 4% to $701.20.

This is it, friends, all the confirmation a reasonable person could ask to prove that the correction has ended.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Sep-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,349.40 27.30 2.06%
Silver, $/oz 20.05 0.77 4.01%
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.305 -1.283 -1.87%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0149 0.0003 1.91%
Platinum 1,100.00 40.50 3.82%
Palladium 701.20 27.00 4.00%
S&P 500 2,186.48 6.50 0.30%
Dow 18,538.12 46.16 0.25%
Dow in GOLD $s 283.99 -5.14 -1.78%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.74 -0.25 -1.78%
Dow in SILVER oz 924.64 -34.68 -3.62%
US Dollar Index 94.82 -1.02 -1.06%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,349.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,384.69 1,394.81 1,394.81
1/2 AE 0.50 687.79 711.91 1,423.83
1/4 AE 0.25 347.26 362.71 1,450.82
1/10 AE 0.10 141.60 147.78 1,477.81
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,312.29 1,321.29 1,347.98
British sovereign 0.24 320.08 333.08 1,414.95
French 20 franc 0.19 249.45 253.45 1,357.53
Krugerrand 1.00 1,359.05 1,369.05 1,369.05
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,359.60 1,373.60 1,373.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 776.02 708.54 1,417.08
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 344.15 361.02 1,444.07
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 143.06 147.11 1,471.06
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,617.32 1,628.32 1,350.51
.9999 bar 1.00 1,354.32 1,361.60 1,361.60
SPOT SILVER: 20.07      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 14,239.23 14,525.23 20.32
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,727.43 5,877.43 19.92
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,986.50 2,021.50 20.22
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 202.15 207.15 20.72
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.87 20.37 20.37
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.57 23.07 23.07
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,100.00      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,115.00 1,145.00 1,145.00
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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