The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 19 September a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Some folks have missed the point. That lone commentary I sent out last week contained an error. I typed $1,814 for the current gold price instead of $1,314, although the Comex close was correct. I apologize, but I was sicker than a gut shot dog with a terrible cold and fever & doing good just to sit upright on a stool. I ain't much improved yet, although the cold is now thriving in my chest where it delights in my hacking, wheezing cough.

All that ain't the point. Point is, y'all ought to know that gold doesn't jump -- yet -- US$500 in a single day. Now $50 is plausible, but stretching. Anyhow, a bunch of folks called our International High Rise Headquarters wanting to SELL gold. Listen, if y'all weren't just tweaking me, you've got it utterly wrong. Where we are now, with gold beginning a new rally leg and stocks & bonds collapsing, if you saw gold jump $50 in one day, you ought to buy with both fists, mortgage your chattels and chi'ren and buy. Why?? Twould be a sign of unfolding financial crisis.

I said I wasn't going to say twice that Hillary Clinton will lose this election, but I will add this. I took an informal poll as I drove halfway across Tennessee, halfway across North Carolina, and all the way across South Carolina, then back across Georgia. Didn't see a single bumper sticker for either candidate. Didn't see a single yard sign for Hillary, although I saw a few -- no multitude, for sure -- for Trump. What does that say, a month and a half before election? Not to mention Hillary falling down in public or her other bubbling scandals. Oh, and Merkel lost big in Berlin elections. Gigantic revulsion in politics taking place against Establishment's policies since WWII, not just immigration.

Markets are on hold but rallying on the relatively firm faith the Fed will not rise interest rates at this week's meeting (20 & 21 Sept.) BOJ meets same days. US dollar fell 29 basis points (0.31%) to 95.76. With all the money in the globe wanting to flee to the US dollar, Fed and the Nice Government Men must be lying awake at nights, chewing nails, sweating .45 caliber bullets, and wondering how they can keep the buck from rocketing.

But that's just my idea, and I ain't no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, where except for the yankee Fed imposed on us by the occupying power, we ain't even got no central bank.

Now I don't 'spect y'all to believe me, because y'all are probably just projecting out into the indefinite and infinite future the trend of stocks rising, but they have well and truly broken down. Here's the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0

The Dow today closed 18,120.17, 3.63 cheaper than Friday. S&P500 ended at 2,139.12, 0.04 lower than Friday. Ain't nothing to say the chart don't already say.

Did y'all get the point of my September 15 commentary, namely, the bond market has busted? See http://schrts.co/IoR0Nw Mercy, when the Fed starts fightin' that they'll look like a man trying to put a cat into a milk can.

Gold and silver rallied today, arguing that the crisis low came last week. Silver rose a mighty 42.5¢ (2.26%) to 1920.6¢. Gold added $7.70 (0.6%) to $1,313.50.

Lo, this is a beginning alone, and must be improved. In confirmation gold must rise above $1,330 and silver above 2025¢. Today's rise merely almost undid all silver's losses since a week ago Friday. Good, positive, but not the Promised Land yet, although my opinnion says we have seen the lows.

Other than chills and fevers, I had a good vacation, but I'll tell y'all, it don't do me a particle of good to go down among the lowlanders. Shucks, it don't do me no good to get off the farm and go in town, let alone go someplace like Nashville. I look around and wonder what planet these folks come from, although I will forebear listing the crazy things that catch my eyes. I have concluded that this nation suffers from a severe mirror shortage.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
19-Sep-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,313.50 7.70 0.59%
Silver, $/oz 19.21 0.43 2.26%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.390 -1.138 -1.64%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 0.0002 1.66%
Platinum 1,022.10 6.10 0.60%
Palladium 683.35 38.50 5.97%
S&P 500 2,139.12 -0.04 -0.00%
Dow 18,120.17 -3.63 -0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s 285.17 -1.74 -0.61%
Dow in GOLD oz 13.80 -0.08 -0.61%
Dow in SILVER oz 943.46 -21.54 -2.23%
US Dollar Index 96.06 -0.29 -0.30%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,313.45      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,347.60 1,357.45 1,357.45
1/2 AE 0.50 669.35 692.84 1,385.69
1/4 AE 0.25 337.96 352.99 1,411.96
1/10 AE 0.10 137.81 143.82 1,438.23
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,275.86 1,284.86 1,310.81
British sovereign 0.24 311.51 324.51 1,378.53
French 20 franc 0.19 242.77 246.77 1,321.74
Krugerrand 1.00 1,321.33 1,331.33 1,331.33
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,323.45 1,337.45 1,337.45
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 755.23 689.56 1,379.12
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 334.93 351.35 1,405.39
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 139.23 143.17 1,431.66
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,573.99 1,584.99 1,314.58
.9999 bar 1.00 1,318.05 1,325.45 1,325.45
SPOT SILVER: 19.20      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,692.25 13,978.25 19.55
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,472.25 5,622.25 19.06
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,900.00 1,935.00 19.35
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 193.50 198.50 19.85
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.00 19.50 19.50
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.70 22.20 22.20
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,022.10      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,037.10 1,067.10 1,067.10
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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