The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 29 November a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

That stock market MO-sheen is cranked up and blowin' smoke & throwin' sparks. And the Trump cabinet appointments are beginning to dull the edge of Trump's outsiderism. He's expected to appoint Steven Mnuchin Treasury Secretary, a 17-year Goldman Sachs vet who suffers from acute & terminal consonantitis in his name. Other appointments like Elaine Chao, former Bush Labor Secretary and Mitch McConnell's wife, and carpetbagger Nikki Haley from South Carolina, look like very large soupbones thrown to the reigning Republican establishment.

But what do I know here in Tennessee? Shucks, I bet they ain't a single person in this country qualified to act as secretary outside the walls of Goldman Sachs, otherwise Mr. Trump would have picked him, right? After all, look what great jobs Hank Paulson & Robert Rubin did as Treasury Secretaries. And Mario Draghi as ECB head. And hey! Remember what a great job Goldman did for Greece when they were trying to shoehorn themselves into the European Union? Whoops. Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned that.

Never mind.

Stocks barely rose today. Dow gained 9.66 (0.05%) to 19,107.56 & the SP500 lifted 4.22 (0.2%) to 2,205.94. Times like this you ain't sure what or who to believe. Cycles call for a stock slide, chart pattern shows a year long deadly rising wedge, then others look at the same picture -- many of whom sell stocks -- & call for a Dow over 20,000.

I reckon we'll see. A recovering economy would outrun by light years the mess the Fed & yankee government have been stirring the last 8 years. I would cry about that, I just can't believe it yet.

US dollar index shrivelled 36 basis points (0.35%) to 101.01 today. Here's a chart,

It's about to penetrate that 101-ish support/resistance, and when it does, should fall a ways. No indication yet for certain whether the dollar will extend its rally after this correction. If it does extend, of course, that will put up a gold-stalling headwind. Markets universally expect the Fed Open Market Committee on 13-14 December to raise its discount rate a quarter percent. I 'spect that will be good for gold, taking off the pressure of the unknown. Anyway, given the right circumstances, mostly high inflation expectations, gold & interest rates can rise together.

Comex gold lost $2.90 (0.2%) to $1,187.90. Silver gained 7.8¢ to 0.5%.

T'ain't merely that nothing positive is happening with silver & gold, but that downright nothing at all is happening. Silver's range today was 30¢, gold's range $15.70, pretty narrow. Little investor interest.

Positives are magnifying glass small. Gold is coming off a hugely oversold condition. Alright, but it must throw a leg back over $1200. 50 day moving average crossed below the 200 on 18 November, which ain't great but isn't as fatal as many believe. Silver has held on above 1600¢ while gold broke to new lows, and silver edges up a few cents every day. Yes, that's a non-confirmation, but not a very loud one. Louder and more articulate would be a close above 1725¢.

Look at the gold/silver ratio,

The ratio at least is beneath its 200 & 20 DMAs and is trying to fall through the 50 DMA. It's pointing down, the right direction, but needs to pick up speed.

Sometimes, you just have to stand back and watch.

Poking around last night I found a diary Susan was keeping when we met in 1967. I remembered correctly, we had our first date on 6 May 1967 & apparently by 11 May 1967 had firmly decided to get married. Night before my birthday, 23 May 1967, I asked her Daddy for her hand.

Her Daddy was just about intimidating. He had his own business selling light fixtures, and had lost one eye when a screw fell into it, so he had a glass eye. He had a handsome but sort of craggy face, and when that one eye looked at you, it bored clean through. I clumsily asked him if he would like to get rid of a daughter. Susan's mother had to rescue me, explaining what I meant. Then he said, "The only thing I ask is that you love her."

I took that for a YES and Susan & I skidded out of there like scalded dogs. We got married on 16 December 1967, but I'd have been just as happy to have married the next day.

Y'all think about how you met your wife or husband and give 'em a big hug and a kiss. remembering how much you loved them at first, and how much more you love them now.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
29-Nov-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,187.90 -2.90 -0.24%
Silver, $/oz 16.66 0.08 0.47%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.298 -0.510 -0.71%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 0.0001 0.72%
Platinum 918.90 -2.40 -0.26%
Palladium 763.65 7.30 0.97%
S&P 500 2,205.94 4.22 0.19%
Dow 19,107.56 9.66 0.05%
Dow in GOLD $s 332.51 0.98 0.29%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.09 0.05 0.29%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,146.84 -4.81 -0.42%
US Dollar Index 101.01 -0.36 -0.36%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,187.50      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,223.13 1,227.28 1,227.28
1/2 AE 0.50 605.12 626.41 1,252.81
1/4 AE 0.25 305.52 319.14 1,276.56
1/10 AE 0.10 124.58 130.03 1,300.31
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,158.17 1,167.17 1,190.74
British sovereign 0.24 281.63 294.63 1,251.63
French 20 franc 0.19 219.49 223.49 1,197.05
Krugerrand 1.00 1,201.75 1,211.75 1,211.75
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,197.50 1,211.50 1,211.50
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 682.81 623.44 1,246.88
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 302.81 317.66 1,270.63
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.88 129.44 1,294.38
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,424.49 1,435.49 1,190.59
.9999 bar 1.00 1,191.66 1,199.50 1,199.50
SPOT SILVER: 16.60      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 25.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 20.00 22.00 28.76
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,548.25 12,834.25 17.95
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,705.25 4,855.25 16.46
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,640.00 1,675.00 16.75
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 167.50 172.50 17.25
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.40 16.90 16.90
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.10 19.60 19.60
SPOT PLATINUM: 918.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 933.90 963.90 963.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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