The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 20 December a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

Markets drag on in their petty pace from day to day. Don't expect many surprises between now and year end. Holidays are beginning to distract traders.

Dow rose today by 1956 (0.46%) to 19,974.62, a new all time high by 73 points. S&P500 refused to cooperate, and although it rose 8.23 (03%) to 2,27.76, made no new all time high.

Call me crazy, call me redneck, call me a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, but this is a trap. Yes, that round number 20,000 will probably draw investors toward it, but out there not too far in the dark is a cliff, waiting for stocks.

But what about Trump? Won't he fix the economy and the government and bad breath? It would take him two years to get out from under Obama's mess, whatever he can do. Don't count on much quickly.

US dollar index hit a new high for the move today at 103.26, up 16 basis points. Last all-time high was 103.11 a few days ago. My, o, my, the Samolean is riding high, got its high heeled boots on and is just a-struttin'. Wait. Them high heeled boots are made out of vinyl and naugahyde.

Your life could be worse You could the the poor soul charged with maintaining the value of the euro & Yen. Euro keeps plumbing the bottom to see how far it can drop. Lost another 0.7% today to $1.0354. Yen looks no better. Lost 0.6% to 84.86.

On Comex today gold lost $9.00 (0.8%) to $1,131.50. Low came at $1,127.30. Silver gained 2.8¢ (0.2%) to 1605.4¢.

All this is range trading that accomplisheth not much. Silver, however, today put in a hopeful sign, the first half of a key reversal (intraday break to a new low with a higher close for the day). A higher close tomorrow paints a completed & portentous key reversal.

Gold is trying to stand up off the mat, but not too successfully. That low at $1,124.30 three days ago might be the bottom. We are, after all, just exactly one solar cycle, a fullness of time, from the lows in 2015. And gold is more oversold than catnip at a tomcat convention. 'Bout time to turn around and catch fire,

On 20 December 1860 South Carolina voted to leave the federal union. That did not make the yankees happy.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
20-Dec-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,131.50 -9.00 -0.79%
Silver, $/oz 16.05 0.03 0.17%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.481 -0.685 -0.96%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 0.0001 0.97%
Platinum 922.90 6.70 0.73%
Palladium 671.35 -8.00 -1.18%
S&P 500 2,270.76 8.23 0.36%
Dow 19,974.62 0.16 0.00%
Dow in GOLD $s 364.92 2.88 0.80%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.65 0.14 0.80%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,244.21 -2.16 -0.17%
US Dollar Index 103.26 0.16 0.16%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,131.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,169.15 1,169.72 1,169.72
1/2 AE 0.50 586.60 597.02 1,194.05
1/4 AE 0.25 298.96 304.17 1,216.69
1/10 AE 0.10 122.97 123.93 1,239.32
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,103.84 1,112.84 1,135.32
British sovereign 0.24 268.42 281.42 1,195.51
French 20 franc 0.19 211.31 217.31 1,163.94
Krugerrand 1.00 1,146.51 1,156.51 1,156.51
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,141.80 1,155.80 1,155.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 650.79 594.20 1,188.39
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 288.61 302.76 1,211.03
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 119.97 123.37 1,233.66
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,354.95 1,365.95 1,132.91
.9999 bar 1.00 1,136.33 1,141.80 1,141.80
SPOT SILVER: 16.08      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,851.13 12,137.13 16.98
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,550.38 4,700.38 15.93
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,597.50 1,622.50 16.23
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 162.25 167.25 16.73
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.33 16.63 16.63
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.58 19.08 19.08
SPOT PLATINUM: 922.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 937.90 967.90 967.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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