The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 27 December a.d. 2016 Browse the commentary archive

I hope all y'all enjoyed a merry & blessed Christmas. All seven of my children were here, plus six spouses & 14 grandchildren. Wonderful, but I still missed Susan.

Markets remain in their holiday torpor, moving lazily sideways for the most part. Reminds me of trading this time last year, when silver & gold lay prone like worn out pug boxers on the mat, & stocks were just a-jukin.' That all changed in January.

When in the early 1920s Vladimir Lenin wanted to create a false anti-Soviet front to draw out the regime's opponents, he told his secret police head Felix Dzerzhinsky to organize it. "How will we get them to believe it is genuine? What will we tell them?" he asked Lenin.

"Tell them what they want to hear," Lenin replied.

As these two practiced, world class liars knew, it's always easier to convince the victims when you tell them what they want to hear. For all their doubt, people will believe the lie.

Today we are watching the stock market's Trump Rally, built on the -- dare I say it? -- lie that somehow Trump will make things better by doing -- what exactly? The same moronic socialist/crony capitalist nostrums that got us in this mess in the first place, more government spending, more debt, more government "helping" the economy.

Land o' Goshen! How can folks so readily ignore government & private debt at all time highs, pension funds waiting to bust, a gadzillion dollars of mal-investment left over from the Fed's 8 year money creating binge, a bursting bond bubble, stocks at never-before-seen all-time-high valuations -- and on this bucket of ripe hogwash the lemmings are buying hand over fist, BECAUSE THEY ARE BEING TOLD WHAT THEY WANT TO BELIEVE, not the truth.

'Tain't gonna end well.

Stocks today hit the Kryptonite ceiling again. Dow rose 11.23 (0.06%) to 19,945.04 & the S&P500 rose 5.08 to 2,268.87. Lo, a cliff waits out there in time, nay, not too distant, over which stocks will tumble.

US dollar index is flatlining, barely holding on above 103. Ended today up 0.6 (0.06%) at 103.01. Chart's here,

Next move is probably down, if only for a short correction. By no means certain yet that the dollar index will keep rising -- most likely, but not yet certain.

Silver & gold both sport daily charts that suggest they have bottomed. Today gold rose $5.40 to $1,137.30 while silver rose 22.5¢ (1.4%) to 1592.9¢.

Gold chart is found here,

Go look at it. Today gold bored through the downtrend line, but didn't quite close there. However, look at the bowl it has formed, a rounding bottom. Only needs to stay in that bowl for a while to work its way above the lip for a new rally. Best gold has looked since the election.

Silver chart liveth here,

Silver has formed the left shoulder and most of the head of an upside-down head and shoulders bottom. Must not violate the low made so far, 1567.5¢. Neck line is probably 1725¢, so we'll have to back & fill until that right shoulder is completed, but the end of this torturing correction is near.

Of course, both these are UNFOLDING patterns, and they always might unfold some other way. Don't throw caution to the wind yet.

BEYOND OFF GRID. My friends at Beyond Off Grid have at last completed the Beyond Off Grid documentary. Their film exposes the weakness of the modern grid system and dependence on a hyper-centralized economy. And they have solutions: returning to the old paths of productive households and local communities.

The documentary will make you look at modern life through a different lens, and help you plan priorities as you walk into 2017.

The Beyond Off Grid documentary was actually released last night for online viewing, but DVDs will be available to ship in a couple of weeks. They interviewed me for the documentary, and when I saw everything put together I was a little astonished how radical it was, not "radical" in any bad sense, but in the proper sense of "going to the root" of things. No pussyfooting.

This week also there will be online interviews at 9:00 p.m. ET every night with the filmmakers and two of the folks in the film. Yes, I am one, and will be interviewed this Thursday.

You can order the Beyond Off Grid Documentary at and if you scroll down the page you can sign up for the interviews at no charge. Whoops, there's also a sneak peek at the documentary there. Take a look.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
27-Dec-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,137.30 5.40 0.48%
Silver, $/oz 15.93 0.23 1.43%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.398 -0.679 -0.94%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 0.0001 0.95%
Platinum 903.30 -10.90 -1.19%
Palladium 674.30 18.95 2.89%
S&P 500 2,268.87 5.08 0.22%
Dow 19,945.04 11.23 0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 362.53 -1.52 -0.42%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.54 -0.07 -0.42%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,252.12 -17.22 -1.36%
US Dollar Index 103.01 0.06 0.06%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,138.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,172.55 1,176.54 1,176.54
1/2 AE 0.50 590.03 600.51 1,201.01
1/4 AE 0.25 300.70 305.95 1,223.78
1/10 AE 0.10 123.69 124.65 1,246.55
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,110.28 1,119.28 1,141.89
British sovereign 0.24 269.99 282.99 1,202.16
French 20 franc 0.19 212.54 218.54 1,170.54
Krugerrand 1.00 1,153.20 1,163.20 1,163.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,148.40 1,162.40 1,162.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 654.58 597.66 1,195.32
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 290.29 304.52 1,218.09
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 120.67 124.09 1,240.86
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,362.85 1,373.85 1,139.46
.9999 bar 1.00 1,142.95 1,148.40 1,148.40
SPOT SILVER: 15.95      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,654.50 11,940.50 16.70
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,513.50 4,663.50 15.81
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,585.00 1,610.00 16.10
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.00 166.00 16.60
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.20 16.50 16.50
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.45 18.95 18.95
SPOT PLATINUM: 903.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 918.30 948.30 948.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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