The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 3 January a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

All right, I'm all high strung and as excited as a wasp in a bottle. Volume III of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole is at the printer and we will be able to ship paper back orders the last week in January, but not before.

You can see all available books here,

Or, you can pre-order Volume III by itself at

Or, (y'all knew I was going to do this) you can pre-order the complete three volume set at a discount here,

If you want Volume 3 in electronic PDF version, that's available for immediate download. Kindle & ePub editions will be ready later this month, and I ain't gonna keep it a secret when they are.

Volume 3, just like Volumes 1 & 2, is plumb full of Susan Stories. Fact is, I reckon my whole life has been one long Susan Story, & I'm glad of it. Volume 3 will make you laugh till your cheeks cramp & your ears lock back.

Stocks took a surge eary, the Dow to 19,930 but couldn't hold on there. Ended up rising only 119.16 (0.6%) to 19,881.76. S&P500 rose 0.85% or 19.00 to 2,257.83.

My little pitiful, ignorant interpretation is that after hitting their 20 day moving average, stocks reacted by jumping up as naïve buyers were lurking there hoping to buy on the cheap, not understanding that Mr. Market plans to roll them, pick their pockets, & leave 'em for dead. Both indices have broken their uptrend line so that a larger correction is foreseeable, down to the 50 DMA EVEN IF stocks plan to move above 20,000. But I'm no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, so don't pay me no mind.

US dollar index spiked early in the day to 103.80, but somebody had covered the handholds there with axle grease, so the Dollar index lost its grip & slipped back to 103.25, up 96 basis points or 0.94%.

Think about the dollar as a "liability" of the Federal Reserve, which it is. The higher interest rates rise, the lower the Fed's balance sheet bond assets fall, so the less the dollar is worth. Don't reckon many folks have thought about that, specially those on a dollar buying spree, certain that Trump will not only revive the dollar but even make ugly babies pretty 7 bad breath smell sweet.

I ain't so sure. Dollar chart 'pears to be tracing out a broadening top. Y'all look & tell me what y'all think,

Some of that gold & silver pessimism faded away along with all that year ends selling. Comex today witnessed gold rise $10.40 (0.9%) to $1,160.40. Silver gained 42¢ or 2.6% to close at $1635.6. Woooo-eee.

White metals went stone blind drunk wild today. Palladium rose 26.65, 3.9%, to $709.30. Platinum vaulted $37.70 or 4.2% to $939.30, above the downtrend line and the 50 DMA. Not sure I want to make too much of that, since they may be profiting from Trumpophoria, like copper. Most of their uses, after all, are industrial, so if you expect a booming economy, having drunk the Kool-Aid, you would expect booming platinum & palladium, too.

Five day gold chart is a picture worthy of Rembrandt or Thomas Kinkade. (Several of y'all will catch that. Others may not.) Traces out a fine upleg. Stalled about $1,164, so it needs to take that out tomorrow or next day. Nothing yet has appeared to gainsay my conclusion that this chart shows a bowl bottom, Any close below that bowl bottom explodes that conclusion. I call the lip of that bowl $1,205, so it must clear that to break out upside.

Don't miss this: Today gold closed above its 20 DMA, first tripwire of a rally.

Silver's chart is rye-chere,

Upside down head & shoulders catapulted silver above its downtrend line & into the 20 DMA today. Ought to rally nearly to the neckline at 1725¢. Close below the head would be bad juju, equivalent of hearing those beating jungle drums in one of those 1930s Tarzan movies.

For now, till new facts hit me upside the head, I am operating on the assumption that December lows were THE gold and silver lows for the correction begun in July. Look for both to rally from here. Yea, but forget not this rally remains in its be-diapered infancy, so must prove itself by continual gains.

Men, y'all can't imagine how much your wives do for you. I discovered recently that I am not even competent to shop for toilet paper without Susan.

Several months ago we had a septic tank pumped. Susan had a conversation with the tank-pumper (as with everyone) & he opined, as a professional of ripe experience, that the ONLY fit toilet paper for a septic tank is Angel Soft. Susan immediately switched to Angel Soft, but before too long her frugality kicked in & she started buying the Kroger proprietary version of Angel Soft.

Not knowin' sic 'em from come here, I went to buy toilet paper. Stood there facing a twenty-five feet shelf of toilet paper, six feet high. I saw the Angel Soft, but knew Susan wouldn't like my grabbing the first thing off the shelf without comparing prices. I couldn't find the Kroger version of Angel Soft, but in the far distance I saw something that had a price about a third of everything else. Of course, it's packaged in some different number of rolls, so that figuring out what you're really paying is like calculating distance in furlongs per fortnight. Okay, I bit. It was cheap.

And when I got home, I found out why: you could read a newspaper through it. And I have 12 rolls of this stuff I've got to get rid of. When I first looked at that package, I thought that was a wise old owl on it. Now that I look closer, it's a buzzard.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
3-Jan-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,160.40 10.40 0.90%
Silver, $/oz 16.36 0.42 2.64%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.946 -1.217 -1.69%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0141 0.0002 1.72%
Platinum 939.30 37.70 4.18%
Palladium 709.30 26.65 3.90%
S&P 500 2,257.83 19.00 0.85%
Dow 1,881.76 119.16 6.76%
Dow in GOLD $s 33.52 1.84 5.80%
Dow in GOLD oz 1.62 0.09 5.80%
Dow in SILVER oz 115.05 4.45 4.02%
US Dollar Index 103.25 0.96 0.94%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,158.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,195.06 1,196.79 1,196.79
1/2 AE 0.50 600.19 610.85 1,221.69
1/4 AE 0.25 305.88 311.21 1,244.85
1/10 AE 0.10 125.82 126.80 1,268.01
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,129.40 1,138.40 1,161.39
British sovereign 0.24 274.64 287.64 1,221.91
French 20 franc 0.19 216.20 222.20 1,190.14
Krugerrand 1.00 1,173.05 1,183.05 1,183.05
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,168.00 1,182.00 1,182.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 665.85 607.95 1,215.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 295.29 309.77 1,239.06
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 122.75 126.22 1,262.22
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,387.71 1,398.71 1,160.08
.9999 bar 1.00 1,162.63 1,168.00 1,168.00
SPOT SILVER: 16.30      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,793.93 12,079.93 16.90
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,615.28 4,765.28 16.15
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,619.50 1,644.50 16.45
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 164.45 169.45 16.95
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.55 16.85 16.85
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.80 19.30 19.30
SPOT PLATINUM: 939.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 954.30 984.30 984.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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