The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 10 January a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

I have to run up to Franklin to visit a friend tonight, so I am sending this about 2:30 p.m. Central time, before the stock and currency markets close. However, their somnolence implies nothing mighty or earthshaking will happen in the next thirty minutes.

Stocks remain flat today. Dow is up 2.57 (0.01%) to 19,889.95 & the S&P has risen 3.68 (0.16%) to 2,272.58. Nothing working there

US dollar index, after a 25 basis point amputation yesterday, came back 19 basis points today to 102.03. Remains beneath its 20 day moving average & whispers loudly that the next short term move is earthward -- but first, it must close below 101.29.

Gold today barely bettered yesterday's $11.60 rise by adding another 70¢ for a $1,184.20 close. Silver added 17.3¢ to yesterday's 16.4¢ gain for a Comex close at 1680.3¢ -- up 2% in two days.

That's all dandy, but people don't clap for a parade that stops. Gold is bumping up against resistance at $1,186, and hath lingered here these three days. Above lies more resistance still: the 50 day moving average at $1,197.46 and resistance at $1,200. RSI and MACD are still positive, the MACD less so. Gold needs to push on through $1,200 or risk falling back, mayhap even to new lows.

But all that is nervous anticipation, not to fret about until and unless gold breaks the bottom of its bowl seen on this chart,

GO look at silver's chart here,

Nothing has changed. Silver continues to draw out the head of an upside down head and shoulders bottom. However, trouble likes above, resistance about 1680¢ & all the way to 1725¢. That's an uphill battle when the US dollar is strong.

Y'all be patient. I still believe we saw the low back in December 2015 [sic], and the low for this pull back in December 2016. But after a long decline, markets need a while to rebuild upward momentum.

I am literally kicking myself. For years I have suffered chronic back trouble and a painful hip. Can't bend and touch my toes on that left side. Muscles want to pull my leg up from the hip. Pulled my torso over to the left.

About a month ago the thought occurred to me, "If my body wants to pull my hip up, then I need to stretch it back." I tried this stretch, and immediately my back and hip improved. Recently gave it to a friend, and it worked for him. I do it once a day for 60 seconds on each side, and try to do it twice during the day for 30 seconds a side.

Stand up. Put your hands on a chair or counter. Bend your torso forward until it's parallel to the ground. Bring your leg up behind you until it is parallel to the ground, too (Warning! Do not try to bring up both legs at once. You'll hit your chin on the chair.) Point your toes and bring your leg up as high as possible. Hold for 60 (or 30) seconds), then do the same with the other leg. Keep your standing leg straight. You should feel a stretch in your outstretched hip's front side, and in the standing leg's hamstring.

Believe me, I wouldn't waste y'all's time with this had it not helped immensely. I hope it helps y'all, too, but don't blame me if it doesn't.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
10-Jan-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,184.20 0.70 0.06%
Silver, $/oz 16.80 0.17 1.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.476 -0.691 -0.97%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0142 0.0001 0.98%
Platinum 978.40 0.10 0.01%
Palladium 764.65 8.10 1.07%
S&P 500 2,272.58 3.68 0.16%
Dow 19,889.95 2.57 0.01%
Dow in GOLD $s 347.21 -0.16 -0.05%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.80 -0.01 -0.05%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,183.71 -12.16 -1.02%
US Dollar Index 102.03 0.19 0.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,185.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,221.94 1,224.90 1,224.90
1/2 AE 0.50 614.30 625.19 1,250.39
1/4 AE 0.25 313.07 318.52 1,274.09
1/10 AE 0.10 128.78 129.78 1,297.79
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,155.92 1,164.92 1,188.46
British sovereign 0.24 281.09 294.09 1,249.31
French 20 franc 0.19 221.28 227.28 1,217.34
Krugerrand 1.00 1,199.42 1,209.42 1,209.42
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,195.20 1,209.20 1,209.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 681.49 622.23 1,244.46
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 302.23 317.04 1,268.16
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 125.63 129.19 1,291.87
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,420.30 1,431.30 1,187.11
.9999 bar 1.00 1,189.94 1,195.20 1,195.20
SPOT SILVER: 16.79      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,180.03 12,466.03 17.44
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,759.83 4,909.83 16.64
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,668.50 1,693.50 16.94
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.35 174.35 17.44
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.04 17.34 17.34
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.29 19.79 19.79
SPOT PLATINUM: 978.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 993.40 1,023.40 1,023.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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