The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 19 January a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Stocks are looking right puny. Dow Industrials & Russell 2000 have lost all their 2017 gains & today closed below 30 December 2016.

Dow Industrials today misplaced 72.32 (0.37%) and closed at 19,732.40. S&P500 scraped off 8.2 (0.36%) to 2,263.69.

That doesn't' constitute a "breakdown" but it does look a bit green around the gills. Dow is closer than the S&P500 to the bottom boundary of its Megaphone formation, But both have triggered the tripwire of a decline, standing below their 20 DMAs.

US dollar index tapered off 13 basis points (0.13%) to 101.10. Nobody's betting much until after the inauguration. It doesn't make any real difference materially, but psychologically it's important. Dollar is either just before breaking down badly or ending its correction. Inertia is gravityward.

After a gargantuan rise from November's 1.771% low to the Dec 2016 2.62% high, the 10 year treasury yield has been correcting. Miss not, neither fail to observe, that the rally took the 10 year yield up through the downtrend line from 2007 AND broke the 35 year downtrend line. Interest rates ARE going up. Chart's right here,

Seems that strong economic data suggested support for the Fed raising rates -- at least, that's the explanation for the minute. Whatever the cause, it's driving treasury security prices down. Expect a firestorm if/when rates really begin. US 30 year bond has lost almost 15% since the July high, and there ain't no cavalry riding to the rescue. Here's the 30 year bond price chart,

Gold was fighting to stand up today, after Jammin' Janet knocked it to the mat. Gold at Comex close had lost $10.40 (0.9%) and closed at $1,200.90. Silver lost 1.6% or 26.8¢ for a 1696.7¢ close. Both rose in the aftermarket, to $1,204.10 & 1705¢.

Gold's five day chart argues that it bottomed today with a low at $1,195.40. Also, even though it was knocked below support/resistance at $1,200, it bounced off that spike then climbed back over $1,200. Good.

Silver's 5 day chart shows a rise into Wednesday's peak with a sharp decline back to a V-bottom today. Hesitancy in stocks & metals shows interest & money shifting from stocks to metals, but not many are convinced yet. I am convinced. I believe we saw the low back in December, and I think Trump's inauguration & later face off with the reality of ruling will help power silver & gold higher.

But I ain't no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. What do I know?

On 19 January 1953 68% of all American TV sets were tuned to CBS as Lucy Ricardo of "I Love Lucy" gave birth to a baby boy. Go on, admit it. You loved "I Love Lucy." Lucille Ball was hilarious.


TRUMP INAUGURATION SPECIAL. I'm cleaning house before the new man moves in. All lots are as is, no more at those prices when I run out. Spot gold basis for these prices is $1,204.10, spot silver $17.05.


US gold American Eagle coins are minted in 21 karat gold (0.9167% pure). I have two one-half ounce American Eagles at $645.50 each and sixteen (16) one-tenth ounce at $137.50 for a total of $3,491 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $3,526.00. One lot only.


Two Austrian Philharmonics, one ounce at 0.9999 fine, for $1,252.25 and Five (5) South African 1/10 Krugerrands at $136 each. Total is $3,184.50 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $3,219.50. 2.5000 oz total at 5.8% over gold. One lot only.


These are gold coins from the old Mexican peso series, minted at two gold pesos equal almost one gold dollar, 90% pure (21.6 karat). Lot contains Two (2) Mexican twenty pesos (0.4823 oz fine gold content) at $609.75 each, One (1) Mexican Ten pesos (0.2411 oz) at $306.00 each, Two (2) Mexican five pesos (0.1206 oz) at $155.25 each, Five (5) Mexican 2-1/2 pesos at $80.60 each, Two (2) Mexican two pesos at $64.40 each, and just for fun, One (1) Netherlands ten guilder (0.1947 oz) at $248.50 each. Subtotal is $2,616.30, plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,651.30. Great small gold coin assortment - contains 2.0395 oz at a 6.5% premium over gold. One lot only.


US gold commemoratives were minted from 1986 to 2004 to the ancient gold standard, 90% pure gold with a fine gold content of 0.0483875 per dollar. I have only twelve lots consisting of Two (2) US $10 commemoratives (0.4838 oz) at $600.10 each and Three (3) US $5 commemoratives (0.2419 oz) at $303.50 each. Subtotal is $2,110.70 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,145.70. One lot contains 1.6933 oz fine gold at a 3.5% premium over gold. Y'all are stealing these. Twelve lots only.


Everybody loves US silver dollars minted before 1936, but it's hard to find them properly graded. They are supposed to grade Very Good (VG) or better, but apparently a lot of dealers have eye trouble. These coins have no rim dings, no cuts, and they have full rims. I have thrown in a few Culls that do NOT grade VG or better.

I have one lot only with Eight (8) 1921 Morgan dollars (0.765 oz fine silver) at $22.50 each, Sixty-five (65) Peace dollars (0.765 oz, minted 1921-1935) at $21.50 each, and Twelve (12) cull Peace or Morgan dollars at $19 each. Total including $35 shipping is $1,844.50. I am selling this lot "as is", and guarantee that all dollars except the culls grade Very Good or better.


I have two (2) one hundred ounce 0.999 fine silver bullion bars at $1,800 each, plus Four (4) each ten oz. 0.999 fine silver bullion bars at $181.00 each. Subtotal is $4,324.00 plus $40 shipping makes the total $4,364.00. That buys 240 troy ounces at a 5.7% premium.

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First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
19-Jan-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,200.90 -10.40 -0.86%
Silver, $/oz 16.97 -0.27 -1.55%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.779 0.497 0.71%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0141 -0.0001 -0.70%
Platinum 952.80 -15.20 -1.57%
Palladium 750.55 0.15 0.02%
S&P 500 2,263.69 -8.00 -0.35%
Dow 19,732.40 -72.32 -0.37%
Dow in GOLD $s 339.67 1.68 0.50%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.43 0.08 0.50%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,162.99 13.89 1.21%
US Dollar Index 101.10 -0.13 -0.13%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,204.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,239.02 1,244.44 1,244.44
1/2 AE 0.50 624.11 635.16 1,270.33
1/4 AE 0.25 318.07 323.60 1,294.41
1/10 AE 0.10 130.84 131.85 1,318.49
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,174.36 1,183.36 1,207.26
British sovereign 0.24 285.57 298.57 1,268.36
French 20 franc 0.19 224.81 230.81 1,236.24
Krugerrand 1.00 1,216.14 1,226.14 1,226.14
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,214.10 1,228.10 1,228.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 692.36 632.15 1,264.31
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 307.05 322.10 1,288.39
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 127.63 131.25 1,312.47
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,444.40 1,455.40 1,207.10
.9999 bar 1.00 1,208.92 1,214.10 1,214.10
SPOT SILVER: 17.05      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,226.50 12,512.50 17.50
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,838.00 4,988.00 16.91
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,695.00 1,720.00 17.20
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 172.00 177.00 17.70
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.30 17.60 17.60
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.55 20.05 20.05
SPOT PLATINUM: 952.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 967.80 997.80 997.80
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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