The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 23 January a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Okay, I'll give the devil his due. Trump cancelled US participation in another toxic Elitist trade deal, the Transpacific Partnership. Keep watching, we'll see whether this follows the rule, "Even a blind squirrel find an acorn now & then," or signifies something better.

Market landed a solid right on the US dollar index' glass jaw today. Knocked it back 56 basis points (0.56%) to 100.13, below the 100.70 support/resistance. Chart's here,

Dollar index, now beneath its 20 & 50 day moving averages, keeps sliding down the bottom boundary of that megaphone top. Rate of descent is now likely to accelerate.

Yen & Euro are rejoicing in the dollar's discomfiture. Euro chart is here,

Euro traced out a double bottom in December and has steadily risen since. Meets stronger resistance above 108.

Yen chart resideth here,

Yen, too, bottomed in December and has spent January rising through its 20 & 50 DMAs. Above 90 it will run.

Stocks put up a brave front Friday but dropped it today. Dow closed at a morale-bustin' 19,799.85, lower by 27.4 (0.14%). S&P500 took it even more seriously, losing 6.11 (027%) to 2,265.20. S&P500 chart's a little better than the Dow's, so I'll show y'all that,

See how it keeps moving farther and further out onto that limb in the megaphone top? Eventually that branch will give way. Small ranges like that don't last forever. Exciting break coming.

Don't half know what to say about silver & gold. Yes, they advanced today. Silver gobbled up 15.3¢ (0.9%) to 1715¢. Gold grabbed $10.70 (0.9%) to $1,215.

Whoa, I don't just have my complainin' hat on. This are nice little steps forward, but remember that silver must climb through 1725¢, first resistance. A 1715¢ close, even with 1720¢ in the aftermarket, remains below 1725¢ Looks like silver wants to fill out that right shoulder. Chart's here,

Gold is climbing out of that bowl & has thrown a leg over the lip, but it has also stalled about $1,219. Needed progress here demands conquering $1,233, then forced marches to $1,270. All else is, well, lukewarm.

Wholesale premium on US 90% silver coin dropped to 35¢ an ounce today, about 15¢ lower than one ounce silver rounds. I would definitely prefer 90% coin in buying silver right now: greater divisibility & recognizability plus lowest pice.

Rising bottoms in Dec. 2015 & 2016 with rally in-between says enough for me: we have seen the lows in silver & gold. Hear my words.

I won't be publishing commentaries this week on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday because I have to undergo foot surgery on Wednesday, 25 January. I feel like how my friend Owens S. describes frying bacon naked: You know it's gonna hurt, you just don't know where or when.

I would be most obliged if y'all would pray for successful surgery and swift healing. I would be most obliged if y'all would pray for successful surgery and swift healing.

I have been pondering how women love differently than men. I mean more unselfishly. My wife Susan used to love to fix supper. She never looked on those daily chores as a burden or drudgery, but as a way to express her love for us. Now she did get her dander up if I didn't help load the dishwasher, but y'all know what I mean.

On 23 January 1879 the National Archery Association was formed. Unfortunately, it was about 600 years too late to offer any lasting military value.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Jan-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,215.00 10.70 0.89%
Silver, $/oz 17.15 0.15 0.90%
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.845 -0.008 -0.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0141 0.0000 0.01%
Platinum 976.10 3.40 0.35%
Palladium 770.90 -16.90 -2.15%
S&P 500 2,265.20 -6.11 -0.27%
Dow 19,799.85 -27.40 -0.14%
Dow in GOLD $s 336.87 -3.46 -1.02%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.30 -0.17 -1.02%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,154.51 -12.00 -1.03%
US Dollar Index 100.13 -0.56 -0.56%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,218.95      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,253.08 1,259.18 1,259.18
1/2 AE 0.50 627.24 641.78 1,283.55
1/4 AE 0.25 319.71 327.59 1,310.37
1/10 AE 0.10 127.88 133.48 1,334.75
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,188.84 1,197.84 1,222.04
British sovereign 0.24 289.09 302.09 1,283.32
French 20 franc 0.19 227.58 233.58 1,251.09
Krugerrand 1.00 1,232.36 1,242.36 1,242.36
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,228.95 1,242.95 1,242.95
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 700.90 639.95 1,279.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 310.83 326.07 1,304.28
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.21 132.87 1,328.66
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,462.22 1,473.22 1,221.88
.9999 bar 1.00 1,218.95 1,230.95 1,230.95
SPOT SILVER: 17.27      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,383.80 12,669.80 17.72
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,902.90 5,052.90 17.13
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,717.00 1,742.00 17.42
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 174.20 179.20 17.92
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.52 17.82 17.82
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.77 20.27 20.27
SPOT PLATINUM: 976.10      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 991.10 1,021.10 1,021.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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