I pause to correct an error from Friday's commentary, in which I implied that the euro had no strength save dollar weakness. True, as far as it goes, but it overlooks (forgive me!) Trump's attempt to talk down the dollar since 17 January, when he opined/tweeted/twitted/whistled that the euro was unfairly undervalued. A few days later one of his underlings repeated similar sentiments.
Since Trump campaigned against unfair advantages of US trading partners, including currency undervaluation, it seems safe to take him at his word. That implies he will be doing what he can to bring down the dollar, if only scourging it with ugly words.
ECB head criminal Mario Draghi said in EU parliamentary testimony today that the ECB does not manipulate currencies. Don' t'row me in dat briar patch, Brer Fox! Meanwhile French presidential candidate Marine LePen says she will take France out of the euro if elected. But Trump & Co. are still talking down the dollar, which so far is benefitting the yen.
US dollar index today shaved off 2 basis points to 99.82, still sliding down that megaphone's lower boundary. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT Dollar index is targeting 97.50.
Euro lost 0.28% to $1.0754 while the yen rose 0.82% to 89.55.
Stocks backed down today. Dow inched back 190.4 (0.09%) to 20,052.42 and the S&P500 lost 4.86 (0.21%) to 2,292.56. Both remain stuck in a broadening top. They show no will to build on gains, but haven't stumbled either. Be patient. Overvaluation this massive eventually takes its revenge in much lower prices.
Dow in Gold, http://schrts.co/hVkfPw , & Dow in Silver, http://schrts.co/GIo5Y2 have both peaked back in December and now declined well below their 20 & 50 day moving averages. So whatever stocks do, it appears they are going to lose value against silver & gold.
Finally! Gold crashed through $1,220 resistance today and rose $11.50 (0.9%) to close Comex at $1,230. Silver climbed 1.2% or 21.4¢ to 1766.7¢
THIS is what gold needed to launch a rally. Look at the chart, http://schrts.co/dC6Qed
Today gold closed cleanly above that bowl lip & stopped at the November high. No resistance stands between here an the 200 DMA ($1,267). Indicators all favor higher prices, but today's volume was puny. Always something to fret about, even in paradise.
Ponder silver's chart, http://schrts.co/o96FnV
Lo, it hath broken through that neckline resistance, travelled higher three days, touched back to the neckline Friday, and launched higher today. As with gold, I'm not thrilled by that low volume, but everything else is set up for a rally.
Platinum rose $7.40 today for its second day over $1,000. Look here, http://schrts.co/N3bhdI
Knocking on its 200 DMA, platinum needs very little to exceed its last peak in November at $1,023. Chart shows low in December/January 2015, rally into August, reaction and bottom in December, now followed by a rally. Rising platinum contributes to gold's morale.
Palladium rose $24.90 (3.38%) today to $774.35. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/M4H70y
Last peak came in January at $798, not much higher than right now. Palladium stands above all its moving averages, and has everything lined up to rally.
Only strange factor in all this is the absolute deadness of the retail gold & silver markets. Not even as lively as a mortuary. And I get this same story from dealers all over the country.
Me, I think they're wrong. All the pieces are in place for silver & gold to rally.
In 1820 the US population amounted to 9,638,453. Today Tennessee along has 6,192,633, about 2/3 the entire US 1820 population.
I have to drive to Chattanooga tomorrow afternoon for another post operative checkup on my foot, so I will miss sending y'all a commentary. I will also miss on Wednesday, but, God willing, will return Thursday.
Here's another little Susan story. My daughter Mercy was over here last week and found a hand made Father's Day Card from 1983 or 1984. We only had five children at the time, and Mercy was not yet one of them. On the inside of the construction paper card Susan had all the children trace out their hands. On the back she wrote a poem, which was quite unusual for her. But then, she always was surprising me.
Our little hands we give to you --
Because we know how much you go through.
Put them to use to make your load light
And for Jesus our Savior teach them to fight.
Put them together and teach them to pray --
That God walk with you, Dad, each and every day!
We love you -- Sanders 5
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger