The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 10 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  3-Feb-17 10-Feb-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,745.30 1,791.20 45.90 2.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,218.50 1,234.40 15.90 1.3
Gold/silver ratio 69.816 68.915 -0.901 -1.3
Silver/gold ratio 0.0143 0.0145 0.0002 1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 340.51 339.44 -1.07 -0.3
Dow in gold ounces 16.47 16.42 -0.05 -0.3
Dow in Silver ounces 1,150.03 1,131.61 -18.42 -1.6
Dow Industrials 20,071.46 20,269.37 197.91 1.0
S&P500 2,297.42 2,316.10 18.68 0.8
US dollar index 99.76 100.75 0.99 1.0
Platinum 1,003.20 1,008.80 5.60 0.6
Palladium 749.45 783.15 33.70 4.5

Wonderful, heartening week for silver & gold. Silver bumped up 2.6% & gold added 1.3%. Palladium whipped the dickens out of everything by rising 4.5%. Stocks look purely punyfied next to metals. Dow hit a new all time high today but rose only 1% on the week, S&P500 rose only 0.8%. US dollar index was on a tear, rising 99 basis points. Jes' goes to show a thing don't have to be no good for folks to buy it.

Dollar index was as ambiguous as a kiss on the cheek. What does it mean? Dollar index rose 11 basis points (011%) to 100.75, but is stuck slap on resistance. Look,

The five day chart looks like the dollar spent today painting out a top, but what do I know? On this daily chart y'all can see that the dollar index, Parasite on the Nations' Carotid, rose to the downtrend line (green) and to the resistance about 100.70. That would be a good place for it to faint, but if it can bull through, it will sure enough rally. Indicators whisper higher prices.

The Dow Industrials today continued to ride a cloud of hot air and rose 96.97 (0.5%) to close at a new record high, 20,269.37. S&P obliged the same, rose 8.23 (0.4%) to 2,316.10. Both indices did poke into overhead megaphone boundaries, but let's wait until Monday to decide whether that means anything.

Clearer information cometh from the Dow in Gold & Dow in silver. Gaze first upon the Dow in gold,

Mark the double top, December 2015 & 2016. Mark the DiG's decline since them, with test of support resistance and plunge below 20 & 50 DMAs. MACD points down, i.e., gold will gain on stocks.

Lo, the Dow in Silver,

Same picture with finer focus. Note the Digs continuing to fall in the teeth of the Dow making new record highs. Yes, yes, that DOES say something! Silver is beating the stuffing out of stocks.

Gold today said nothing, losing 70¢ on Comex close at $1,234.40. Still mired, or as they say around here, "mahrd". Silver rose 1.1% or 19.2¢ to 1791.2¢. Battering on that 1800¢ door!

Five day chart says gold spent most of its day making up yesterday's loss, and so lacked breath and strength to push through $1,235. Durn, but think: It cam back, after a low last night at $1,222.60. CONFIRMED its uptrend. Stop whining.

Today about 11:a.m. silver was sleeping beneath 1765¢ when suddenly somebody hit it with 440 volts. Jumped clean to 1803 before it stopped, but fingers got sweaty holding on that high, so it backed off. Higher silver prices coming next week.

This last week & more silver & gold have been slogging through hip deep mud, but y'all listen now, hear my words: when they break out, it will be like silver today, seven league boot jumps with no warning.

BUY silver and gold.

Yesterday I noticed the Forsythia blooming in my front yard, along with daffodils. Along Robinson Branch at the old home sites daffodils are spilling over the banks. Out my office window I look at our flock of sheep, and watch lambs chasing each other back & forth. Spring peepers are calling. Sound's like spring -- until that hard freeze comes back.

My life is a shambles. On Wednesday in Chattanooga my doctor told me my foot is healing well after surgery (thank God!), but because it's a little swollen I have ot keep it elevated: "Toes to nose," i.e., higher than my heart. Any of y'all ever tried to work, let alone work at a computer, with one leg hiked up three feet in the air? I feel like a turkey getting ready for Thanksgiving, all splayed out.

And because I have to wear a huge boot leftover from the Inquisition, I can't wear proper pants but have to wear flannel pajamas. As it happens, I have two pairs of plaid flannel pants, one Black Watch & one Black Stewart.

This morning my daughter Liberty was coming to pick me up and I was in a hurry & I was chilled. My eyes spotted a heavy plaid flannel shirt in the closet. I'm a man. I grabbed it, what else? Then it hit me: "What would Susan say about your wearing plaid on plaid?"

I should have listened to my conscience. I drove with Liberty to Waynesboro, & somebody must have turned me in. There's been a Fashion Police Swat Team swarming around the office since I got here.

I'm trying to behave, I'm just leaderless without Susan.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Jul-16 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,323.10 -7.40 -0.6
Silver, $/oz 19.66 -0.13 -0.6
Gold/Silver Ratio 67.309 -0.372 -0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0149 -0.0001 -0.6
Platinum 1,085.60 19.90 1.9
Palladium 684.45 37.25 5.8
S&P 500 2,175.03 9.86 0.5
Dow 18,570.85 53.62 0.3
Dow in GOLD $s 290.15 2.48 0.9
Dow in GOLD oz 14.04 0.12 0.9
Dow in SILVER oz 944.74 8.77 0.9
US Dollar Index 97.46 0.41 0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,322.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,354.04 1,366.60 1,366.60
1/2 AE 0.50 673.86 697.51 1,395.03
1/4 AE 0.25 340.23 355.37 1,421.47
1/10 AE 0.10 137.42 144.79 1,447.92
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,287.05 1,296.05 1,322.23
British sovereign 0.24 313.60 326.60 1,387.44
French 20 franc 0.19 248.72 252.72 1,353.64
Krugerrand 1.00 1,330.23 1,340.23 1,340.23
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,332.30 1,346.30 1,346.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 760.32 694.21 1,388.42
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 337.19 353.72 1,414.86
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 140.16 144.13 1,441.31
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,584.60 1,595.60 1,323.38
.9999 bar 1.00 1,326.93 1,334.30 1,334.30
SPOT SILVER: 19.66      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 18.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,981.83 14,266.83 19.95
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,680.23 5,842.23 19.80
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,990.50 2,015.50 20.16
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 198.05 203.05 20.31
1 oz .999 round 1.00 19.76 20.22 20.22
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 21.41 22.41 22.41
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,085.60      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,100.60 1,130.60 1,130.60
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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