The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 14 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Not much new today. Market seem weirdly complacent. Is the world really that safe & smiley a place?

US dollar index rose today 28 basis points (0.28%) to 101.23 and poked into its 50 day moving average, although did not remain above it. That makes 10 straight higher days. Mmmmm. The 50 DMA would be the perfect point to fall back for a correction, but then, I can't imagine what's levitating the dollar index anyway. Interest rates rose today, and that helped the dollar, of course.

In a performance worthy of Jonathan Winters Janet Yellen today told congress that the Fed's oversight of Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis has made banks safer. This would lead to hilarity making me roll on the floor locked in laughter if it weren't so manifestly the Big Lie technique of Josef Goebbels, Adolf Hitler's slick propaganda manager. The Big Banks are about as leveraged as ever, and the top five at least are criminal organizations, I exaggerate not and pick my words carefully. Look at any day's headlines to see how much they've been fined the day before for newly discovered criminal acts. Imagine a liar that incompetent having such monstrous power over the rests of us. It's enough to drive a man to drink. Yet it also underscores a point: evil is not only ugly, it's also stupid.

Stocks pushed up a bit more today. Dow rose 92.25 9(0.5%) to 20,504.41 and the S&P500 climbed (clumb?) 9.33 (0.45) to 2,337.50. Not ready to break yet, but will do so spectacularly when they do.

Silver went nowhere but silver rose a mite. Gold lost 50¢ to $1,223.90. Silver added 6.8¢ to 1787.2¢.

Oddly enough, the last two days' declines haven't done any damage to the silver or gold charts. Gold had touched back to its bowl lip/breakout point, pretty standard behavior. Range was a tight $7.30 today, and gold's low came at $1,222.70. 20 DMA lies below at $1,215.

Silver -- Lo, I am NOT making this up -- punched into its 200 DMA today AND closed barely above its downtrend line from the July high. Here, look for yourself,

Silver's fixin' to draw some kind of line here. Either it will burst through that 200 DMA & take off like a rubber band shot off your toe, or it will fall back to 1740¢ or 1730¢. However, today's high was 1809¢ & silver keeps on pushing to new highs, inchworm though they be. It's in an unbroken uptrend, and a trend in force remains in force until it's broken.

My overall interpretation remains this: silver & gold bottomed after a 4+ year correction in December 2015, then proved that bottom by a rally into July 2016, another correction, and lows in December 2016. Long term trend has turned back up. Expect silver & gold to be higher at the end of this year than at its beginning. Much higher prices are in store.

Today is Valentine's Day, special to lover, of course. My dear wife Susan used to adore planning parties and celebrations, but none more than Valentine's. Like the dull brick I am, I do exceedingly well merely to remember to buy a Valentine's card, and have not an unstained record for that. Y'all hug your wives & husbands. Love never fails.


In 1986 the US mint began issuing commemorative $5 & $10 gold pieces in the ancient fineness of 90% and weights of 0.2419 and 0.4838 troy ounce. That's about a quarter and a half an ounce. Between 1986 and 2008 the Mint issued 20 different fives and two different tens.

Now here's a secret about "modern rarities" that dealers won't tell you. Mints issue them at high premiums, but the premiums very rapidly evaporate, so you never want to buy them when first issued (when public interest is hot), but only after they lose all that premium.

So it has happened with the US $5 & $10 commemoratives. They have virtually no premium left, and never mind that they are handsome coins, struck in proof and encased in plastic.

What does this mean for us? This are my favorite gold coins in these sizes because they are beautiful, plainly struck in the U.S., & most of all, CHEAP.


I can sell the $5s to you at 4% per coin over their spot gold value. In other words, if the spot gold value is $297.30 ($1,229 spot gold x 0.2419), I can sell them to you at ($297.30 + $12 =) $309.30 each, about a 4% premium.

The $10 commems cost $22 per coin over spot value. If spot gold value is $594.60 ($1,229 x 0.4838), the $10 commem will cost you (594.60 + $22 =) $616.60 each, a 3.7% premium.

One lot contains 2.9028 troy ounce of fine gold.

The examples above based on $1,229 are just that. I don't know what spot will be when you call. The only price that I'm fixing is the premium, $12 or $22. If spot gold is higher than $1,229.00 when you call to enter your order, the price will be higher; if spot is lower, they'll cost less.

This offer will operate a little differently than others: DO NOT EMAIL US to accept the offer. Please TELEPHONE US at (931) 766-6066 or (888) 218-9226 to enter an order, based on whatever gold price is then-current, higher or lower. We are on central time and open at 9:00 a.m.

** Minimum order is one lot consisting of Six (6) each $5 commems AND Three (3) each $10 commems. with Spot at $1,229, that amounts to $3,705.55 +$30 shipping or $3,735.55. REMEMBER, they won't be this EXACT price, but will be priced upon spot at the time you enter the order, higher or lower.

** Only one $30 shipping charge per order, whether you order 10 lots or 1,000.

** Offer is good for Two days only, Wednesday, 15 February & Thursday, 16 February, or until supplies are exhausted.

** If you get voice mail, it means our lines are clogged. Leave your name, address, phone number, & email & how many Lots you want. We'll call you back quickly with the order written.

The following other conditions apply

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by telephone only at (931) 766-6066. Phone orders only, please. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

5. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Feb-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,223.90 -0.50 -0.04%
Silver, $/oz 17.87 0.07 0.38%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.481 -0.290 -0.42%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 0.0001 0.42%
Platinum 1,000.10 -10.60 -1.05%
Palladium 780.95 -8.15 -1.03%
S&P 500 2,337.50 9.33 0.40%
Dow 20,504.41 92.25 0.45%
Dow in GOLD $s 346.32 1.70 0.49%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.75 0.08 0.49%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,147.29 0.80 0.07%
US Dollar Index 100.95 0.16 0.16%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,227.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,259.62 1,268.21 1,268.21
1/2 AE 0.50 631.75 646.38 1,292.77
1/4 AE 0.25 322.01 329.94 1,319.78
1/10 AE 0.10 128.80 134.43 1,344.33
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,194.37 1,203.37 1,227.67
British sovereign 0.24 291.17 304.17 1,292.13
French 20 franc 0.19 229.21 235.21 1,259.84
Krugerrand 1.00 1,241.20 1,251.20 1,251.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,237.70 1,251.70 1,251.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 705.93 644.54 1,289.09
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 313.06 328.41 1,313.64
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.14 133.82 1,338.19
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,469.01 1,480.01 1,227.51
.9999 bar 1.00 1,227.70 1,239.70 1,239.70
SPOT SILVER: 17.93      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,462.45 12,819.95 17.93
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,097.60 5,247.60 17.79
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,783.00 1,808.00 18.08
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 180.80 185.80 18.58
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.18 18.48 18.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.43 20.93 20.93
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,000.10      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,015.10 1,045.10 1,045.10
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.