The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 15 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

There used to be an old saying about doing things "on the come," that is, operating in expectation of "good thing to come," rather than present realities.

Trump has the stock market operating strongly "on the come." He twits or tweets or whatever it's called that he plans to cut taxes massively, & stock buyers react as if that were money in the bank instead of "on the come."

Today the Dow rose another 10.45 (0.52%) to another all-time high at 20,611.86. S&P500 also climbed, 11.67 (0.5%) to 2,349.25. RSI is monstrously overbought.

Yet I put my hand over my mouth. What can I say? Anvils can fly after all.

US dollar index had a nasty day. Look at the chart,

Dollar index hit its 50 DMA (frequent target of upward corrections in downtrending markets), sliced through the 50 DMA to a new high for the move, then collapsed, closing 7 basis points lower for the day at 101.16. That starkly paints the first half of a key reversal, & a lower close tomorrow locks in that reversal. Dollar index fell in spite of higher interest rates today.

Yen reached its 50 DMA today and turned up 0.1% to 86.99. Euro rose 0.2% to $1.0522 but remains below its 50 & 20 DMAs.

Slowly & steadily silver & gold keep advancing. Silver rose 7.5¢ to 1794.7¢ and gold climbed $7.80 to $1,231.70.

Y'all ever try to push through waist high boxwoods? They grow so thick that it's nearly impossible. Look at silver's chart,

The ganged presence of the 200 DMA and resistance at 1800¢ leaves silver pushing through the boxwoods. Notice that it has not been stopped, but keeps on edging through. Today's high was 1802¢. When silver finally bulls its way through those boxwoods, it will RUN out the other side.

Gold's chart today is excellent:

Why excellent? Because it broke down during the day through $1,220 support and fell plumb to $1,217.50, suddenly, about 11:00 a.m. From that low gold launched straight up to a high at $1,234.30, & closed near there. Whenever a market breaks support, but bounces back to close higher for the day, that signals strength.

Tomorrow gold needs to break the glass ceiling at $1,234 and silver needs to prune the boxwoods at 1800¢. (Prune the boxwoods? You've been watching Three Amigos too much. Never mind, sorry, I'm severely metaphor-deficient today.)

It appears silver & gold will soon hit that part of the road where the speed limit rises abruptly.


In 1986 the US mint began issuing commemorative $5 & $10 gold pieces in the ancient fineness of 90% and weights of 0.2419 and 0.4838 troy ounce. That's about a quarter and a half an ounce. Between 1986 and 2008 the Mint issued 20 different fives and two different tens.

Now here's a secret about "modern rarities" that dealers won't tell you. Mints issue them at high premiums, but the premiums very rapidly evaporate, so you never want to buy them when first issued (when public interest is hot), but only after they lose all that premium.

So it has happened with the US $5 & $10 commemoratives. They have virtually no premium left, and never mind that they are handsome coins, struck in proof and encased in plastic.

What does this mean for us? This are my favorite gold coins in these sizes because they are beautiful, plainly struck in the U.S., & most of all, CHEAP.


I can sell the $5s to you at 4% per coin over their spot gold value. In other words, if the spot gold value is $297.30 ($1,229 spot gold x 0.2419), I can sell them to you at ($297.30 + $12 =) $309.30 each, about a 4% premium.

The $10 commems cost $22 per coin over spot value. If spot gold value is $594.60 ($1,229 x 0.4838), the $10 commem will cost you (594.60 + $22 =) $616.60 each, a 3.7% premium.

One lot contains 2.9028 troy ounce of fine gold.

The examples above based on $1,229 are just that. I don't know what spot will be when you call. The only price that I'm fixing is the premium, $12 or $22. If spot gold is higher than $1,229.00 when you call to enter your order, the price will be higher; if spot is lower, they'll cost less.

This offer will operate a little differently than others: DO NOT EMAIL US to accept the offer. Please TELEPHONE US at (931) 766-6066 or (888) 218-9226 to enter an order, based on whatever gold price is then-current, higher or lower. We are on central time and open at 9:00 a.m.

** Minimum order is one lot consisting of Six (6) each $5 commems AND Three (3) each $10 commems. with Spot at $1,229, that amounts to $3,705.55 +$30 shipping or $3,735.55. REMEMBER, they won't be this EXACT price, but will be priced upon spot at the time you enter the order, higher or lower.

** Only one $30 shipping charge per order, whether you order 10 lots or 1,000.

** Offer is good for Two days only, Wednesday, 15 February & Thursday, 16 February, or until supplies are exhausted.

** If you get voice mail, it means our lines are clogged. Leave your name, address, phone number, & email & how many Lots you want. We'll call you back quickly with the order written.

The following other conditions apply

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by telephone only at (931) 766-6066. Phone orders only, please. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

5. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Feb-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,231.70 7.80 0.64%
Silver, $/oz 17.95 0.08 0.42%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.630 0.148 0.22%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 -0.0000 -0.22%
Platinum 1,007.80 -10.60 -1.04%
Palladium 786.25 -8.15 -1.03%
S&P 500 2,349.25 11.67 0.50%
Dow 20,611.86 107.45 0.52%
Dow in GOLD $s 345.93 -0.39 -0.11%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.73 -0.02 -0.11%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,148.48 1.19 0.10%
US Dollar Index 101.16 -0.07 -0.07%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,233.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,264.13 1,274.00 1,274.00
1/2 AE 0.50 634.63 649.33 1,298.66
1/4 AE 0.25 323.48 331.45 1,325.80
1/10 AE 0.10 129.39 135.05 1,350.46
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,199.81 1,208.81 1,233.23
British sovereign 0.24 292.50 305.50 1,297.77
French 20 franc 0.19 230.26 236.26 1,265.44
Krugerrand 1.00 1,246.87 1,256.87 1,256.87
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,243.30 1,257.30 1,257.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 709.15 647.48 1,294.97
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 314.49 329.91 1,319.63
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.73 134.43 1,344.30
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,475.71 1,486.71 1,233.07
.9999 bar 1.00 1,233.30 1,245.30 1,245.30
SPOT SILVER: 17.96      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,483.90 12,841.40 17.96
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,106.45 5,256.45 17.82
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,786.00 1,811.00 18.11
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 181.10 186.10 18.61
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.21 18.51 18.51
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.46 20.96 20.96
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,007.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,022.80 1,052.80 1,052.80
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.