The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 16 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

On 27 February 2017 I'll be speaking for the Campaign for Liberty in Memphis. Time is 6:30, place is Jason's Deli on Poplar. Not exactly sure what I'll say yet, but I want to talk about Indicators of liberty, the signs liberty is making progress, & restoring freedom in Tennessee. Of course, I'll also talk about silver & gold. If you join us, come up and introduce yourself. I am always delighted to meet my readers.

Yesterday I appeared on David Simpson's True Money Show, but we didn't talk much about money. He has been reading Vol. 3 of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole so we talked more about the WHY behind that. We had a great time. You can download Segment 1 here, & Segment 2 here, Y'all may enjoy it.


One day y'all are gonna start believin' me about those Key Reversals. I pointed out the first half of a Key Reversal yesterday in the US dollar Index -- more portentous because it poked through the 50 day moving average before it collapsed. Today that rascal stepped in a manhole. Dropped through that 100.70 support, down from yesterday 70 basis points (0.7%) to 100.46, and looking ragged as a gypsy hobo. Just look,

Now step back and look at that chart. The Dollar Index' attempt to rally was stopped cold at the 50 DMA, and has reversed. A trend in force remains in force until invalidated, & this one's trend is down, down, down. Rats ought to be running down the anchor lines right now, rushing to disembark the USS Dollar Index.

It's an ill wind that bloweth no good, and this one blows into the sails of gold & silver.

Stocks stalled today. Dow gained 7.91 (0.04%) for a close at 20,619.77, but all other indices fell. S&P500 lost 2.03 (0.09%) and closed 2,347.22.

I observe in passing that the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver have both turned back down. Here's the Dow in Gold,

Notice that it turned down just shy of the 50 DMA and resistance about 16.80.

Dow in Silver never was as iffy as the Dow in Gold. Behold, the DIS,

DiS never even crossed above its 20 DMA, let alone the 50 DMA. Below 1,120 oz lies nothing but air, no support.

Listen now, hear my words: silver & gold are cheap, stocks are dear.

The next leap forward has begun! Gold punched through $1,235 today to rise $8.30 (0.7%) to $1,240.00 on Comex. Comex silver added 11.6¢ (0.7%) to 1806.3¢.

Gold poked its head through the $1,235 ceiling about 5:00 a.m., touched back, then never looked back. It's clear to anybody who has been watching that $1,240 - $1,250 is tough resistance, but gold has kept on coming back. Next stop? $1,300.

Here's gold's daily chart,

Note that gold broke out over the bowl lip, rose to $1,246.60, then touched back to the bowl lip and now has launched heavenward again. Great trading, & this promises to be one vigorous leg.

Now ponder silver,

Since its 27 January key reversal silver has steadily advanced. Today it finally closed above 1800¢ resistance AND the 200 DMA (1796¢). Will most likely jump to 1900¢, maybe higher.

On 16 February 1862 the Confederacy suffered its worst strategic defeat when Fort Donelson guarding the Tennessee River into the heart of Tennessee surrendered. The Confederate defeat can be charged to divided leadership, as the four Confederate generals couldn't decide who was actually in charge. Night before the surrender a disgusted Col. Bedford Forrest, who had in fact taken the trouble to scout the escape route and knew it was clear, took out a large body of men.


In 1986 the US mint began issuing commemorative $5 & $10 gold pieces in the ancient fineness of 90% and weights of 0.2419 and 0.4838 troy ounce. That's about a quarter and a half an ounce. Between 1986 and 2008 the Mint issued 20 different fives and two different tens.

Now here's a secret about "modern rarities" that dealers won't tell you. Mints issue them at high premiums, but the premiums very rapidly evaporate, so you never want to buy them when first issued (when public interest is hot), but only after they lose all that premium.

So it has happened with the US $5 & $10 commemoratives. They have virtually no premium left, and never mind that they are handsome coins, struck in proof and encased in plastic.

What does this mean for us? This are my favorite gold coins in these sizes because they are beautiful, plainly struck in the U.S., & most of all, CHEAP.


I can sell the $5s to you at 4% per coin over their spot gold value. In other words, if the spot gold value is $297.30 ($1,229 spot gold x 0.2419), I can sell them to you at ($297.30 + $12 =) $309.30 each, about a 4% premium.

The $10 commems cost $22 per coin over spot value. If spot gold value is $594.60 ($1,229 x 0.4838), the $10 commem will cost you (594.60 + $22 =) $616.60 each, a 3.7% premium.

One lot contains 2.9028 troy ounce of fine gold.

The examples above based on $1,229 are just that. I don't know what spot will be when you call. The only price that I'm fixing is the premium, $12 or $22. If spot gold is higher than $1,229.00 when you call to enter your order, the price will be higher; if spot is lower, they'll cost less.

This offer will operate a little differently than others: DO NOT EMAIL US to accept the offer. Please TELEPHONE US at (931) 766-6066 or (888) 218-9226 to enter an order, based on whatever gold price is then-current, higher or lower. We are on central time and open at 9:00 a.m.

** Minimum order is one lot consisting of Six (6) each $5 commems AND Three (3) each $10 commems. with Spot at $1,229, that amounts to $3,705.55 +$30 shipping or $3,735.55. REMEMBER, they won't be this EXACT price, but will be priced upon spot at the time you enter the order, higher or lower.

** Only one $30 shipping charge per order, whether you order 10 lots or 1,000.

** Offer expires after Friday, 17 February, or until suppplies are exhausted.

** If you get voice mail, it means our lines are clogged. Leave your name, address, phone number, & email & how many Lots you want. We'll call you back quickly with the order written.

The following other conditions apply

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by telephone only at (931) 766-6066. Phone orders only, please. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

5. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Feb-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,240.00 8.30 0.67%
Silver, $/oz 18.06 0.12 0.65%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.649 0.019 0.03%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 -0.0000 -0.03%
Platinum 1,013.00 5.20 0.52%
Palladium 793.35 7.10 0.90%
S&P 500 2,347.22 -2.03 -0.09%
Dow 20,619.77 7.91 0.04%
Dow in GOLD $s 343.75 -2.18 -0.63%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.63 -0.11 -0.63%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,141.55 -6.94 -0.60%
US Dollar Index 100.46 -0.70 -0.69%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,239.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,268.42 1,280.82 1,280.82
1/2 AE 0.50 638.03 652.81 1,305.61
1/4 AE 0.25 325.21 333.22 1,332.89
1/10 AE 0.10 130.08 135.77 1,357.69
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,206.23 1,215.23 1,239.78
British sovereign 0.24 294.06 307.06 1,304.42
French 20 franc 0.19 231.49 237.49 1,272.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,254.78 1,264.78 1,264.78
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,249.90 1,263.90 1,263.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 712.94 650.95 1,301.90
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 316.17 331.67 1,326.69
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.43 135.15 1,351.49
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,483.61 1,494.61 1,239.62
.9999 bar 1.00 1,239.90 1,251.90 1,251.90
SPOT SILVER: 18.14      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 23.00 27.00 35.29
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 17.00 20.00 26.14
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,612.60 12,970.10 18.14
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,159.55 5,309.55 18.00
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,804.00 1,829.00 18.29
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 182.90 187.90 18.79
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.39 18.69 18.69
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.64 21.14 21.14
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,013.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,028.00 1,058.00 1,058.00
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.