The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 22 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Don't know about y'all, but I REALLY have a gutful of dead markets.

Fed made public the last FOMC meeting minutes today. They said they would raise interest rates "fairly soon." In other words, they fired another dud.

US Dollar Index was disappointed at the news and while it had reached a high at 101.71 before the announcement, it ended the day at 101.19, down 16 basis points from yesterday. Chart's right here,

Behold, another key reversal started today: new intraday high with a lower close for the day. All this agrees with the head & shoulder's interpretation, & shows the dollar index now filling out that right shoulder.

Stocks took that as bad news & dropped. Dow ended the day up 32.6 (016%) at 20,775.60, but the S&P500 disagreed and dropped 2.56 (0.11%) to 2,362.82. What's a bubble to do?

Silver & gold both received the FOMC minutes as good news, after some initial fumbling & stumbling. Both rose off the day's lows.

Comex silver ended 4¢ lower at 1795¢, but in the aftermarket was trading at 1801¢. This speaks with a voice so faint it don't say nothing.

Comex gold lost $5.50 for a $1,232.00 close, portentously below $1,234, but in the aftermarket it rose to $1,237.10.

This action says very little. God and silver are not so weak as to be driven down through support levels, but they don't have enough muscle to rise through overhead resistance, either.

This is not a situation that can persist much longer. Silver & gold must step forward or step back, but without the mincing steps of the last few days. Maybe we need a tweet from Trump -- or is that a twit? Durned if I can keep that socialistic media straight.

On 22 February 1630 at the first Thanksgiving dinner in New England an Indian named Quadequine introduced popcorn to the English colonists.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Feb-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,237.50 -5.50 -0.44%
Silver, $/oz 17.99 -0.04 -0.22%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.788 -0.152 -0.22%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0145 0.0000 0.22%
Platinum 1,000.50 -3.00 -0.30%
Palladium 769.05 -9.80 -1.26%
S&P 500 2,365.38 14.22 0.60%
Dow 20,775.60 32.60 0.16%
Dow in GOLD $s 347.05 2.08 0.60%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.79 0.10 0.60%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,154.84 4.37 0.38%
US Dollar Index 101.19 -0.19 -0.19%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,237.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,269.16 1,277.20 1,277.20
1/2 AE 0.50 636.54 651.28 1,302.56
1/4 AE 0.25 324.45 332.44 1,329.78
1/10 AE 0.10 129.78 135.45 1,354.52
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,203.41 1,212.41 1,236.90
British sovereign 0.24 293.37 306.37 1,301.50
French 20 franc 0.19 230.95 236.95 1,269.14
Krugerrand 1.00 1,250.61 1,260.61 1,260.61
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,247.00 1,260.00 1,260.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 711.28 649.43 1,298.85
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 315.44 330.90 1,323.59
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.12 134.83 1,348.33
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,480.14 1,491.14 1,236.74
.9999 bar 1.00 1,237.00 1,249.00 1,249.00
SPOT SILVER: 18.01      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 16.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,519.65 12,877.15 18.01
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,121.20 5,271.20 17.87
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,791.00 1,816.00 18.16
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 181.60 186.60 18.66
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.26 18.56 18.56
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.01 20.26 20.26
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,000.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 995.50 1,040.50 1,040.50
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
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  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
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Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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